Overview:

All models below were executed with impulse indicator saturation (IIS) enabled and a block size of 20. In order to avoid endless output, where reasonable, we present only the model specifications with all three ETS phase dummies (2005, 2008, 2013), a p-value threshold of 0.01, and spanning 2019-2021.

Country sample: EU-15, United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Switzerland

Corrections since 18.10

Updates:
- Updated GDP indicator from current US$ to constant 2015 US$ prices
- Manual calculation of population-weighted HDD (16 degree threshold) and CDD (18 degree threshold)

CDD/HDD calculation

GDP correction

Levels

Standard Controls

1990-2021

AR = 0

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:08:50 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -2.314915  0.678744  -3.4106 0.0006921 ***
## lpop                     0.203966  0.206761   0.9865 0.3242968    
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.046319  0.013329   3.4749 0.0005481 ***
## idAustria               -1.992987  0.131189 -15.1917 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.484781  0.094649 -15.6873 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.547884  0.091161  -6.0101 3.231e-09 ***
## idDenmark               -1.242452  0.202036  -6.1496 1.424e-09 ***
## idFinland               -1.405235  0.198356  -7.0844 3.954e-12 ***
## idFrance                -1.719315  0.194773  -8.8273 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idGermany                0.122443  0.231803   0.5282 0.5975426    
## idGreece                -1.057773  0.089210 -11.8571 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -1.936719  0.238911  -8.1064 2.970e-15 ***
## idItaly                 -0.615888  0.187221  -3.2896 0.0010623 ** 
## idJapan                  0.098704  0.306941   0.3216 0.7478891    
## idLuxembourg            -3.479849  0.642887  -5.4128 9.002e-08 ***
## idNetherlands           -0.988398  0.041597 -23.7612 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.034694  0.247119 -12.2803 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.763291  0.093795 -18.7995 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.868836  0.158668  -5.4758 6.427e-08 ***
## idSweden                -2.484163  0.117338 -21.1711 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -3.840640  0.174894 -21.9599 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -0.268323  0.186583  -1.4381 0.1509328    
## idUnitedStates           1.186858  0.421593   2.8152 0.0050362 ** 
## time1990                37.138133  9.679930   3.8366 0.0001380 ***
## time1991                37.199979  9.680353   3.8428 0.0001347 ***
## time1992                37.193794  9.680455   3.8422 0.0001350 ***
## time1993                37.151083  9.680861   3.8376 0.0001375 ***
## time1994                37.162291  9.680118   3.8390 0.0001367 ***
## time1995                37.194607  9.679021   3.8428 0.0001347 ***
## time1996                37.208578  9.678507   3.8445 0.0001338 ***
## time1997                37.208960  9.676122   3.8454 0.0001333 ***
## time1998                37.237038  9.674959   3.8488 0.0001315 ***
## time1999                37.234206  9.673651   3.8490 0.0001314 ***
## time2000                37.234198  9.672684   3.8494 0.0001312 ***
## time2001                37.279063  9.672151   3.8543 0.0001287 ***
## time2002                37.309854  9.673027   3.8571 0.0001272 ***
## time2003                37.345127  9.672873   3.8608 0.0001254 ***
## time2004                37.357948  9.671835   3.8626 0.0001245 ***
## time2005                37.351281  9.671241   3.8621 0.0001247 ***
## time2006                37.356384  9.670344   3.8630 0.0001243 ***
## time2007                37.326714  9.669567   3.8602 0.0001257 ***
## time2008                37.264256  9.670408   3.8534 0.0001291 ***
## time2009                37.212416  9.673150   3.8470 0.0001325 ***
## time2010                37.233105  9.672440   3.8494 0.0001312 ***
## time2011                37.147654  9.672455   3.8406 0.0001359 ***
## time2012                37.139323  9.672798   3.8396 0.0001364 ***
## time2013                37.087506  9.672156   3.8345 0.0001392 ***
## time2014                36.989095  9.671848   3.8244 0.0001449 ***
## time2015                36.946094  9.670959   3.8203 0.0001473 ***
## time2016                36.956502  9.670265   3.8217 0.0001465 ***
## time2017                36.977238  9.669379   3.8242 0.0001450 ***
## time2018                36.911822  9.668701   3.8177 0.0001488 ***
## time2019                36.814713  9.668271   3.8078 0.0001547 ***
## time2020                36.715035  9.671835   3.7961 0.0001620 ***
## time2021                36.748227  9.669197   3.8005 0.0001592 ***
## iis181                   0.405989  0.112178   3.6191 0.0003207 ***
## iis414                  -0.927262  0.115802  -8.0073 6.169e-15 ***
## iis415                  -1.994882  0.115005 -17.3461 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.876866  0.114280 -16.4234 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.608489  0.113777 -14.1372 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.077219  0.113504  -9.4906 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2002  -0.190148  0.053908  -3.5273 0.0004522 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001       -0.266682  0.040630  -6.5636 1.143e-10 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2015    0.301274  0.047587   6.3310 4.794e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.449460  0.042984 -10.4564 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -0.580800  0.057093 -10.1728 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2000 -0.181713  0.045821  -3.9657 8.207e-05 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.530245  0.052338 -10.1311 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.761868  0.090861  -8.3849 3.672e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.326748  0.089066   3.6686 0.0002657 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.411125  0.073199  -5.6166 2.990e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.801640  0.078086 -10.2662 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.254261  0.044543   5.7083 1.801e-08 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.498877  0.042354  11.7789 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2008      0.223291  0.044234   5.0480 5.941e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.516830  0.052332   9.8759 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   147.410  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  43.838  1 3.568e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10540
## R-squared          0.99699
## Log-lik.(n=672)  596.49970

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:08:52 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -0.817077  0.546288  -1.4957  0.135260    
## lpop                     0.181631  0.223586   0.8124  0.416909    
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.017488  0.010776   1.6228  0.105163    
## idAustria               -2.067684  0.140595 -14.7067 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.722537  0.097834 -17.6067 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.497651  0.098209  -5.0673 5.378e-07 ***
## idDenmark               -1.303872  0.217869  -5.9847 3.728e-09 ***
## idFinland               -1.498084  0.213437  -7.0189 6.059e-12 ***
## idFrance                -1.589045  0.208540  -7.6198 9.933e-14 ***
## idGermany                0.306835  0.246388   1.2453  0.213494    
## idGreece                -1.135214  0.092827 -12.2294 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.029428  0.257696  -7.8753 1.596e-14 ***
## idItaly                 -0.510643  0.201389  -2.5356  0.011477 *  
## idJapan                  0.345448  0.325986   1.0597  0.289705    
## idLuxembourg            -3.520659  0.695111  -5.0649 5.444e-07 ***
## idNetherlands           -0.948198  0.043433 -21.8313 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.122868  0.267154 -11.6894 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.842044  0.097931 -18.8096 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.832314  0.171804  -4.8446 1.617e-06 ***
## idSweden                -2.548247  0.125902 -20.2399 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -3.889692  0.189112 -20.5682 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -0.224938  0.195465  -1.1508  0.250279    
## idUnitedStates           1.609602  0.440306   3.6556  0.000279 ***
## time1990                18.118241  8.299286   2.1831  0.029414 *  
## time1991                18.180568  8.299952   2.1904  0.028876 *  
## time1992                18.175267  8.300291   2.1897  0.028929 *  
## time1993                18.132780  8.300866   2.1844  0.029315 *  
## time1994                18.145506  8.300344   2.1861  0.029192 *  
## time1995                18.180370  8.299483   2.1905  0.028868 *  
## time1996                18.215050  8.299105   2.1948  0.028558 *  
## time1997                18.198115  8.296962   2.1933  0.028665 *  
## time1998                18.228218  8.296027   2.1972  0.028385 *  
## time1999                18.227580  8.294958   2.1974  0.028371 *  
## time2000                18.221359  8.293630   2.1970  0.028399 *  
## time2001                18.254225  8.293428   2.2010  0.028112 *  
## time2002                18.277486  8.292963   2.2040  0.027904 *  
## time2003                18.313912  8.293059   2.2083  0.027597 *  
## time2004                18.329838  8.292313   2.2105  0.027449 *  
## time2005                18.324998  8.292017   2.2100  0.027484 *  
## time2006                18.332255  8.291439   2.2110  0.027413 *  
## time2007                18.304511  8.290960   2.2078  0.027637 *  
## time2008                18.240596  8.291708   2.1999  0.028197 *  
## time2009                18.186066  8.294470   2.1926  0.028722 *  
## time2010                18.208791  8.294063   2.1954  0.028516 *  
## time2011                18.124473  8.294343   2.1852  0.029262 *  
## time2012                18.116696  8.294879   2.1841  0.029342 *  
## time2013                18.067212  8.294390   2.1782  0.029776 *  
## time2014                17.982385  8.294229   2.1681  0.030546 *  
## time2015                17.966794  8.293820   2.1663  0.030682 *  
## time2016                17.953853  8.293143   2.1649  0.030788 *  
## time2017                17.977415  8.292601   2.1679  0.030559 *  
## time2018                17.913852  8.292205   2.1603  0.031142 *  
## time2019                17.818166  8.292016   2.1488  0.032046 *  
## time2020                17.714066  8.295420   2.1354  0.033132 *  
## time2021                17.751317  8.293113   2.1405  0.032717 *  
## iis415                  -1.983233  0.124999 -15.8660 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.874636  0.124432 -15.0655 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.605888  0.123980 -12.9528 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.065042  0.123771  -8.6050 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2015    0.301645  0.051818   5.8213 9.510e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.472382  0.045964 -10.2772 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -0.595361  0.062217  -9.5691 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -0.537102  0.051277 -10.4745 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.786376  0.098975  -7.9452 9.596e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997    -0.599302  0.144473  -4.1482 3.834e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998     0.907411  0.125612   7.2239 1.537e-12 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.443309  0.079627  -5.5673 3.902e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.810034  0.085006  -9.5291 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.503826  0.045992  10.9546 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2008      0.265703  0.046564   5.7063 1.814e-08 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.508805  0.056373   9.0258 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   189.044  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  53.395  1 2.728e-13 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11501
## R-squared          0.99638
## Log-lik.(n=672)  535.31080
CCE

Note: This is a preliminary implementation of the Common Correlated Effects estimator following the method outlined in the code sample provided by Felix a few weeks ago. The manual implementation using plm and the dedicated pcce function (both from the plm package in R) yield identical coefficient estimates to the fourth decimal place. We are concerned about this discrepancy.

I will provide more in-depth updates in the meeting. Mainly, it would be great to get more eyes on these results and the implementation to ensure minimal errors!

## [1] "Formula: pcce(l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq)"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.05; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Wed Nov  9 22:49:41 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                               6.7162e-02  4.0032e+00   0.0168 0.9866209    
## lpop                                 -1.1497e+00  5.5356e-01  -2.0770 0.0383008 *  
## lgdp_wb_sq                           -2.3109e-03  7.4751e-02  -0.0309 0.9753492    
## mean_l_emissions_data_australia       1.0453e+00  5.7449e-01   1.8195 0.0694162 .  
## mean_l_emissions_data_austria         1.2007e+00  5.8713e-01   2.0450 0.0413650 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_belgium         8.8352e-01  5.8687e-01   1.5055 0.1328224    
## mean_l_emissions_data_canada          8.9774e-01  5.8702e-01   1.5293 0.1267993    
## mean_l_emissions_data_denmark         2.2945e+00  5.8787e-01   3.9031 0.0001077 ***
## mean_l_emissions_data_finland         2.2188e+00  5.8787e-01   3.7744 0.0001792 ***
## mean_l_emissions_data_france          1.4668e+00  5.8813e-01   2.4941 0.0129436 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_germany         1.5495e+00  5.8711e-01   2.6392 0.0085640 ** 
## mean_l_emissions_data_greece          2.1315e+00  5.9469e-01   3.5842 0.0003704 ***
## mean_l_emissions_data_ireland         1.0079e+00  6.0018e-01   1.6794 0.0936867 .  
## mean_l_emissions_data_italy           1.5119e+00  5.8879e-01   2.5677 0.0105192 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_japan           1.4266e+00  5.8734e-01   2.4288 0.0154909 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_luxembourg      9.4948e-01  6.4838e-01   1.4644 0.1437060    
## mean_l_emissions_data_netherlands     1.1567e+00  5.8779e-01   1.9679 0.0496140 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_new_zealand     1.6334e+00  6.2389e-01   2.6181 0.0091050 ** 
## mean_l_emissions_data_portugal        6.0903e-01  6.2040e-01   0.9817 0.3267225    
## mean_l_emissions_data_spain           1.9309e+00  5.9595e-01   3.2400 0.0012730 ** 
## mean_l_emissions_data_sweden          1.5718e+00  6.0292e-01   2.6069 0.0094024 ** 
## mean_l_emissions_data_switzerland     6.8623e-01  5.8662e-01   1.1698 0.2426268    
## mean_l_emissions_data_united_kingdom  1.7998e+00  6.0204e-01   2.9895 0.0029289 ** 
## mean_l_emissions_data_united_states   1.0721e+00  5.8726e-01   1.8256 0.0684917 .  
## mean_lgdp_data_australia             -1.4087e+01  1.1172e+01  -1.2609 0.2079137    
## mean_lgdp_data_austria               -7.4702e+01  4.5222e+01  -1.6519 0.0991691 .  
## mean_lgdp_data_belgium               -3.5704e+01  4.5262e+01  -0.7888 0.4305877    
## mean_lgdp_data_canada                -1.4454e+01  4.5584e+01  -0.3171 0.7513134    
## mean_lgdp_data_denmark               -4.4987e+01  4.8683e+01  -0.9241 0.3558730    
## mean_lgdp_data_finland               -5.4024e+01  4.8593e+01  -1.1118 0.2667593    
## mean_lgdp_data_france                -2.3332e+01  4.8443e+01  -0.4816 0.6302698    
## mean_lgdp_data_germany               -1.4450e+02  4.6240e+01  -3.1250 0.0018789 ** 
## mean_lgdp_data_greece                -4.5071e+01  4.6421e+01  -0.9709 0.3320399    
## mean_lgdp_data_ireland               -9.9432e+00  4.8328e+01  -0.2057 0.8370734    
## mean_lgdp_data_italy                 -8.4476e+01  4.5274e+01  -1.8659 0.0626301 .  
## mean_lgdp_data_japan                 -1.2286e+02  4.6218e+01  -2.6583 0.0080984 ** 
## mean_lgdp_data_luxembourg            -5.1131e+01  5.3121e+01  -0.9626 0.3362263    
## mean_lgdp_data_netherlands           -7.8462e+01  4.8986e+01  -1.6017 0.1098359    
## mean_lgdp_data_new_zealand            8.3813e+01  5.0446e+01   1.6614 0.0972404 .  
## mean_lgdp_data_portugal              -4.4678e+01  4.6986e+01  -0.9509 0.3421069    
## mean_lgdp_data_spain                 -1.1528e+02  4.5499e+01  -2.5336 0.0115877 *  
## mean_lgdp_data_sweden                 6.6890e+00  4.6448e+01   0.1440 0.8855498    
## mean_lgdp_data_switzerland           -5.2974e+01  4.5593e+01  -1.1619 0.2458225    
## mean_lgdp_data_united_kingdom        -1.2320e+02  4.6776e+01  -2.6338 0.0086989 ** 
## mean_lgdp_data_united_states         -5.2225e+00  4.5377e+01  -0.1151 0.9084191    
## mean_lpop_data_australia              1.3443e+01  8.9635e+00   1.4997 0.1343066    
## mean_lpop_data_austria                9.4545e+00  8.5599e+00   1.1045 0.2698902    
## mean_lpop_data_belgium                7.6391e+00  8.5780e+00   0.8905 0.3735920    
## mean_lpop_data_canada                 6.0352e+00  8.5883e+00   0.7027 0.4825471    
## mean_lpop_data_denmark                1.0666e+01  8.5519e+00   1.2472 0.2129031    
## mean_lpop_data_finland                1.1068e+01  8.5560e+00   1.2936 0.1963731    
## mean_lpop_data_france                 1.0523e+01  8.5690e+00   1.2281 0.2199871    
## mean_lpop_data_germany                9.5643e+00  8.5572e+00   1.1177 0.2642265    
## mean_lpop_data_greece                 1.0381e+01  8.5557e+00   1.2133 0.2255561    
## mean_lpop_data_ireland                7.9994e+00  8.6424e+00   0.9256 0.3550913    
## mean_lpop_data_italy                  7.5178e+00  8.5697e+00   0.8773 0.3807587    
## mean_lpop_data_japan                  1.5469e+01  8.5491e+00   1.8094 0.0709760 .  
## mean_lpop_data_luxembourg             1.1379e+01  8.9218e+00   1.2754 0.2027550    
## mean_lpop_data_netherlands            1.1032e+01  8.5561e+00   1.2894 0.1978453    
## mean_lpop_data_new_zealand            7.1610e+00  8.6401e+00   0.8288 0.4075946    
## mean_lpop_data_portugal               1.7241e+00  8.5644e+00   0.2013 0.8405331    
## mean_lpop_data_spain                  5.1783e+00  8.6343e+00   0.5997 0.5489426    
## mean_lpop_data_sweden                 1.5858e+01  8.5913e+00   1.8458 0.0655007 .  
## mean_lpop_data_switzerland            9.9116e+00  8.5959e+00   1.1531 0.2494245    
## mean_lpop_data_united_kingdom         9.6645e+00  8.5879e+00   1.1254 0.2609637    
## mean_lpop_data_united_states          9.1149e+00  8.5852e+00   1.0617 0.2888702    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_australia           2.4195e-01  1.8834e-01   1.2847 0.1994890    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_austria             1.3684e+00  8.2960e-01   1.6495 0.0996652 .  
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_belgium             6.3753e-01  8.3036e-01   0.7678 0.4429762    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_canada              2.7117e-01  8.3674e-01   0.3241 0.7460084    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_denmark             7.7088e-01  8.9396e-01   0.8623 0.3889181    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_finland             9.6982e-01  8.9216e-01   1.0871 0.2775238    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_france              4.1657e-01  8.9070e-01   0.4677 0.6402082    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_germany             2.6538e+00  8.4902e-01   3.1257 0.0018744 ** 
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_greece              8.0803e-01  8.5154e-01   0.9489 0.3431168    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_ireland             1.7913e-01  8.8453e-01   0.2025 0.8395975    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_italy               1.5566e+00  8.3061e-01   1.8740 0.0615007 .  
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_japan               2.2374e+00  8.4884e-01   2.6358 0.0086492 ** 
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_luxembourg          8.9564e-01  9.7674e-01   0.9170 0.3595871    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_netherlands         1.4293e+00  8.9925e-01   1.5895 0.1125695    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_new_zealand        -1.5353e+00  9.2611e-01  -1.6578 0.0979749 .  
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_portugal            8.5008e-01  8.6163e-01   0.9866 0.3243113    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_spain               2.1541e+00  8.3532e-01   2.5788 0.0101933 *  
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_sweden             -1.8854e-01  8.5384e-01  -0.2208 0.8253266    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_switzerland         9.6990e-01  8.3658e-01   1.1594 0.2468478    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_united_kingdom      2.2580e+00  8.6071e-01   2.6235 0.0089637 ** 
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_united_states       8.1799e-02  8.3272e-01   0.0982 0.9217873    
## idAustria                             8.7438e+02  5.6314e+02   1.5527 0.1211153    
## idBelgium                             3.8994e+02  5.6440e+02   0.6909 0.4899415    
## idCanada                              1.1315e+02  5.6455e+02   0.2004 0.8412344    
## idDenmark                             4.7719e+02  6.1373e+02   0.7775 0.4372060    
## idFinland                             5.6961e+02  6.1018e+02   0.9335 0.3509945    
## idFrance                              1.6637e+02  6.0760e+02   0.2738 0.7843328    
## idGermany                             1.8199e+03  5.6895e+02   3.1987 0.0014661 ** 
## idGreece                              4.5997e+02  5.7318e+02   0.8025 0.4226446    
## idIreland                             2.0270e+01  5.9194e+02   0.0342 0.9726969    
## idItaly                               1.0341e+03  5.6744e+02   1.8224 0.0689767 .  
## idJapan                               1.4442e+03  5.6936e+02   2.5365 0.0114929 *  
## idLuxembourg                          5.4848e+02  6.6591e+02   0.8236 0.4105222    
## idNetherlands                         9.0764e+02  6.1680e+02   1.4715 0.1417580    
## idNewZealand                         -1.2516e+03  6.3448e+02  -1.9727 0.0490648 *  
## idPortugal                            5.7749e+02  5.8017e+02   0.9954 0.3200245    
## idSpain                               1.4623e+03  5.6433e+02   2.5913 0.0098354 ** 
## idSweden                             -2.9556e+02  5.8295e+02  -0.5070 0.6123718    
## idSwitzerland                         5.7498e+02  5.6738e+02   1.0134 0.3113574    
## idUnitedKingdom                       1.5287e+03  5.8255e+02   2.6242 0.0089445 ** 
## idUnitedStates                       -4.4881e+01  5.6970e+02  -0.0788 0.9372386    
## time1990                              7.5492e-01  9.0083e-01   0.8380 0.4024052    
## time1991                              6.8348e-01  8.1100e-01   0.8428 0.3997546    
## time1992                              6.2136e-01  7.6391e-01   0.8134 0.4163697    
## time1993                              6.3104e-01  7.4261e-01   0.8498 0.3958550    
## time1994                              6.1088e-01  7.1424e-01   0.8553 0.3927942    
## time1995                              6.2801e-01  6.9570e-01   0.9027 0.3671065    
## time1996                              5.8004e-01  6.5356e-01   0.8875 0.3752221    
## time1997                              6.5364e-01  6.5474e-01   0.9983 0.3185969    
## time1998                              7.2243e-01  6.5735e-01   1.0990 0.2722836    
## time1999                              7.3114e-01  6.5142e-01   1.1224 0.2622273    
## time2000                              7.1347e-01  6.3695e-01   1.1201 0.2631874    
## time2001                              6.3872e-01  5.7497e-01   1.1109 0.2671478    
## time2002                              5.3082e-01  4.9921e-01   1.0633 0.2881404    
## time2003                              4.7483e-01  4.3705e-01   1.0864 0.2777937    
## time2004                              4.3676e-01  4.0796e-01   1.0706 0.2848566    
## time2005                              4.1035e-01  3.6757e-01   1.1164 0.2647864    
## time2006                              3.6039e-01  3.2928e-01   1.0945 0.2742624    
## time2007                              3.4440e-01  3.1019e-01   1.1103 0.2673947    
## time2008                              2.8931e-01  2.6704e-01   1.0834 0.2791509    
## time2009                              2.3153e-01  2.1737e-01   1.0652 0.2873077    
## time2010                              1.7003e-01  1.6702e-01   1.0180 0.3091478    
## time2011                              1.3914e-01  1.5074e-01   0.9230 0.3564269    
## time2012                              7.8105e-02  1.1104e-01   0.7034 0.4821276    
## time2013                              7.6363e-02  9.8714e-02   0.7736 0.4395353    
## time2014                              6.8467e-02  9.3790e-02   0.7300 0.4657214    
## time2015                              5.0424e-02  7.3802e-02   0.6832 0.4947718    
## time2016                              6.0612e-02  5.3880e-02   1.1249 0.2611417    
## time2017                              5.7662e-03  3.1960e-02   0.1804 0.8568951    
## iis135                                2.8598e-01  8.4397e-02   3.3885 0.0007569 ***
## iis176                               -3.3786e-01  7.9735e-02  -4.2372 2.684e-05 ***
## iis390                               -5.4044e-01  8.1843e-02  -6.6033 1.008e-10 ***
## iis391                               -7.0762e-01  8.3015e-02  -8.5241 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis392                               -1.1745e+00  8.3886e-02 -14.0010 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis393                               -2.1924e+00  8.9172e-02 -24.5868 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis394                               -2.0050e+00  9.6913e-02 -20.6888 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis395                               -1.6538e+00  1.0378e-01 -15.9358 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis396                               -1.0505e+00  9.5783e-02 -10.9677 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis451                                2.4088e-01  8.8285e-02   2.7284 0.0065822 ** 
## iis508                                2.1731e-01  8.4878e-02   2.5602 0.0107465 *  
## iis512                               -3.0229e-01  9.2617e-02  -3.2639 0.0011725 ** 
## iis551                                3.4234e-01  7.9562e-02   4.3028 2.021e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.1994                     2.0348e-01  7.0689e-02   2.8785 0.0041624 ** 
## fesisFinland.1994                     2.3075e-01  6.6301e-02   3.4803 0.0005437 ***
## fesisFrance.1993                     -3.8993e-01  6.5025e-02  -5.9966 3.809e-09 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2004                  2.8484e-01  8.0758e-02   3.5270 0.0004580 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013                 -4.3549e-01  8.1055e-02  -5.3728 1.179e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016                 -6.8238e-01  8.5346e-02  -7.9955 8.647e-15 ***
## fesisNetherlands.1995                 1.9361e-01  7.0248e-02   2.7561 0.0060576 ** 
## fesisNewZealand.1994                 -1.8811e-01  7.2957e-02  -2.5783 0.0102069 *  
## fesisNewZealand.2019                  2.9030e-01  7.9263e-02   3.6625 0.0002757 ***
## fesisPortugal.2019                   -2.9489e-01  8.4298e-02  -3.4981 0.0005093 ***
## fesisSweden.2016                      2.9880e-01  7.7824e-02   3.8394 0.0001388 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016              -3.6038e-01  7.7177e-02  -4.6695 3.862e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df p-value   
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   7.9497  1 0.00481 **
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 5.8977  1 0.01516 * 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.07345
## R-squared          0.99874
## Log-lik.(n=672)  881.20023

## [1] "Formula: pcce(l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq)"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Wed Nov  9 22:54:27 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                                -3.776482    4.215650  -0.8958  0.370761    
## lpop                                   -0.733658    0.581564  -1.2615  0.207685    
## lgdp_wb_sq                              0.067396    0.078813   0.8551  0.392871    
## mean_l_emissions_data_australia         0.874616    0.622352   1.4053  0.160517    
## mean_l_emissions_data_austria           1.032333    0.636039   1.6231  0.105182    
## mean_l_emissions_data_belgium           0.693888    0.635415   1.0920  0.275328    
## mean_l_emissions_data_canada            0.716845    0.636057   1.1270  0.260256    
## mean_l_emissions_data_denmark           2.088407    0.637109   3.2779  0.001116 ** 
## mean_l_emissions_data_finland           1.848671    0.635408   2.9094  0.003776 ** 
## mean_l_emissions_data_france            1.240551    0.636519   1.9490  0.051837 .  
## mean_l_emissions_data_germany           1.386972    0.636347   2.1796  0.029736 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_greece            1.973957    0.642174   3.0739  0.002224 ** 
## mean_l_emissions_data_ireland           0.641644    0.649378   0.9881  0.323568    
## mean_l_emissions_data_italy             1.272429    0.636926   1.9978  0.046263 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_japan             1.203827    0.635835   1.8933  0.058873 .  
## mean_l_emissions_data_luxembourg        0.837555    0.703395   1.1907  0.234302    
## mean_l_emissions_data_netherlands       0.855701    0.635223   1.3471  0.178539    
## mean_l_emissions_data_new_zealand       1.061227    0.637958   1.6635  0.096820 .  
## mean_l_emissions_data_portugal          0.246109    0.669000   0.3679  0.713115    
## mean_l_emissions_data_spain             1.655382    0.643454   2.5727  0.010369 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_sweden            0.855748    0.637503   1.3423  0.180071    
## mean_l_emissions_data_switzerland       0.507655    0.635504   0.7988  0.424758    
## mean_l_emissions_data_united_kingdom    1.566237    0.652254   2.4013  0.016688 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_united_states     0.892751    0.635632   1.4045  0.160764    
## mean_lgdp_data_australia               -6.973279   12.102909  -0.5762  0.564753    
## mean_lgdp_data_austria                -70.154957   49.206499  -1.4257  0.154548    
## mean_lgdp_data_belgium                -30.710567   49.245217  -0.6236  0.533147    
## mean_lgdp_data_canada                 -10.624609   49.586305  -0.2143  0.830424    
## mean_lgdp_data_denmark                -41.106004   52.959539  -0.7762  0.437997    
## mean_lgdp_data_finland                 20.510036   49.248718   0.4165  0.677247    
## mean_lgdp_data_france                 -17.974512   52.711069  -0.3410  0.733241    
## mean_lgdp_data_germany               -141.383296   50.274097  -2.8122  0.005106 ** 
## mean_lgdp_data_greece                 -40.190169   50.418243  -0.7971  0.425736    
## mean_lgdp_data_ireland                 15.802838   52.377457   0.3017  0.762993    
## mean_lgdp_data_italy                  -77.684928   49.240978  -1.5776  0.115255    
## mean_lgdp_data_japan                 -118.412094   50.255513  -2.3562  0.018833 *  
## mean_lgdp_data_luxembourg             -37.191090   57.771021  -0.6438  0.520010    
## mean_lgdp_data_netherlands            -23.509247   49.324911  -0.4766  0.633833    
## mean_lgdp_data_new_zealand             53.124266   49.893365   1.0648  0.287480    
## mean_lgdp_data_portugal               -49.873979   50.829186  -0.9812  0.326947    
## mean_lgdp_data_spain                 -108.474034   49.502104  -2.1913  0.028873 *  
## mean_lgdp_data_sweden                 -25.184022   49.494954  -0.5088  0.611094    
## mean_lgdp_data_switzerland            -50.015229   49.604329  -1.0083  0.313787    
## mean_lgdp_data_united_kingdom        -115.657459   50.881413  -2.2731  0.023429 *  
## mean_lgdp_data_united_states           -7.904476   49.371442  -0.1601  0.872863    
## mean_lpop_data_australia               10.288544    9.711310   1.0594  0.289892    
## mean_lpop_data_austria                  7.097567    9.283269   0.7646  0.444884    
## mean_lpop_data_belgium                  5.029208    9.296989   0.5410  0.588774    
## mean_lpop_data_canada                   3.142662    9.306921   0.3377  0.735749    
## mean_lpop_data_denmark                  8.045234    9.278138   0.8671  0.386278    
## mean_lpop_data_finland                  9.262760    9.280533   0.9981  0.318702    
## mean_lpop_data_france                   7.829045    9.290046   0.8427  0.399764    
## mean_lpop_data_germany                  7.473301    9.290218   0.8044  0.421518    
## mean_lpop_data_greece                   7.397017    9.282478   0.7969  0.425885    
## mean_lpop_data_ireland                  4.152878    9.357507   0.4438  0.657371    
## mean_lpop_data_italy                    5.054093    9.288893   0.5441  0.586605    
## mean_lpop_data_japan                   13.186075    9.275582   1.4216  0.155745    
## mean_lpop_data_luxembourg               9.386125    9.641426   0.9735  0.330747    
## mean_lpop_data_netherlands              8.226882    9.277818   0.8867  0.375636    
## mean_lpop_data_new_zealand              3.668435    9.320052   0.3936  0.694033    
## mean_lpop_data_portugal                -1.740982    9.288377  -0.1874  0.851391    
## mean_lpop_data_spain                    2.021233    9.345461   0.2163  0.828855    
## mean_lpop_data_sweden                  10.523492    9.287964   1.1330  0.257726    
## mean_lpop_data_switzerland              7.157220    9.313459   0.7685  0.442550    
## mean_lpop_data_united_kingdom           6.900079    9.309611   0.7412  0.458920    
## mean_lpop_data_united_states            6.080823    9.306002   0.6534  0.513768    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_australia             0.116326    0.203917   0.5705  0.568615    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_austria               1.291722    0.902716   1.4309  0.153051    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_belgium               0.553343    0.903472   0.6125  0.540499    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_canada                0.205568    0.910170   0.2259  0.821402    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_denmark               0.707952    0.972521   0.7280  0.466968    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_finland              -0.403889    0.903257  -0.4471  0.654954    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_france                0.322123    0.969188   0.3324  0.739748    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_germany               2.599296    0.923035   2.8160  0.005047 ** 
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_greece                0.729418    0.924814   0.7887  0.430636    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_ireland              -0.278253    0.958796  -0.2902  0.771771    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_italy                 1.436272    0.903455   1.5898  0.112498    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_japan                 2.159220    0.922929   2.3395  0.019686 *  
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_luxembourg            0.648692    1.062285   0.6107  0.541693    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_netherlands           0.421937    0.904837   0.4663  0.641187    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_new_zealand          -0.953418    0.914915  -1.0421  0.297857    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_portugal              0.962503    0.931818   1.0329  0.302117    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_spain                 2.035799    0.908832   2.2400  0.025511 *  
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_sweden                0.431661    0.908385   0.4752  0.634847    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_switzerland           0.922280    0.910227   1.0132  0.311415    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_united_kingdom        2.123064    0.936249   2.2676  0.023761 *  
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_united_states         0.130757    0.905971   0.1443  0.885297    
## idAustria                             894.890658  612.789122   1.4604  0.144796    
## idBelgium                             408.260485  614.058428   0.6649  0.506437    
## idCanada                              153.526579  614.261896   0.2499  0.802735    
## idDenmark                             510.546155  667.398783   0.7650  0.444631    
## idFinland                            -358.270038  611.931537  -0.5855  0.558483    
## idFrance                              183.433286  661.092513   0.2775  0.781530    
## idGermany                            1857.420248  618.906358   3.0011  0.002819 ** 
## idGreece                              482.958926  622.844943   0.7754  0.438451    
## idIreland                            -226.421111  642.043362  -0.3527  0.724488    
## idItaly                              1027.687206  617.057752   1.6655  0.096423 .  
## idJapan                              1466.524029  619.387089   2.3677  0.018264 *  
## idLuxembourg                          433.745032  724.315865   0.5988  0.549544    
## idNetherlands                         256.235430  613.838383   0.4174  0.676535    
## idNewZealand                         -737.993271  618.269099  -1.1936  0.233161    
## idPortugal                            743.077876  626.985600   1.1852  0.236496    
## idSpain                              1466.219116  614.125061   2.3875  0.017320 *  
## idSweden                              254.103444  616.961119   0.4119  0.680610    
## idSwitzerland                         623.982252  617.280428   1.0109  0.312555    
## idUnitedKingdom                      1517.665054  633.889188   2.3942  0.017009 *  
## idUnitedStates                         88.536665  619.682851   0.1429  0.886445    
## time1990                                0.566822    0.979046   0.5790  0.562871    
## time1991                                0.528416    0.881598   0.5994  0.549177    
## time1992                                0.490436    0.830443   0.5906  0.555064    
## time1993                                0.489847    0.807289   0.6068  0.544261    
## time1994                                0.476595    0.776543   0.6137  0.539656    
## time1995                                0.504300    0.756382   0.6667  0.505243    
## time1996                                0.469561    0.710628   0.6608  0.509053    
## time1997                                0.535118    0.711802   0.7518  0.452524    
## time1998                                0.595236    0.714540   0.8330  0.405208    
## time1999                                0.600544    0.708020   0.8482  0.396715    
## time2000                                0.581687    0.692241   0.8403  0.401129    
## time2001                                0.530150    0.625001   0.8482  0.396696    
## time2002                                0.452321    0.542798   0.8333  0.405051    
## time2003                                0.417428    0.475303   0.8782  0.380221    
## time2004                                0.383139    0.443657   0.8636  0.388210    
## time2005                                0.348998    0.399734   0.8731  0.383024    
## time2006                                0.323634    0.358133   0.9037  0.366589    
## time2007                                0.306683    0.337337   0.9091  0.363703    
## time2008                                0.258265    0.290435   0.8892  0.374289    
## time2009                                0.216787    0.236448   0.9168  0.359646    
## time2010                                0.171006    0.181640   0.9415  0.346908    
## time2011                                0.134787    0.163956   0.8221  0.411401    
## time2012                                0.087323    0.120629   0.7239  0.469455    
## time2013                                0.078721    0.107268   0.7339  0.463357    
## time2014                                0.057523    0.101982   0.5641  0.572961    
## time2015                                0.038536    0.080208   0.4805  0.631107    
## time2016                                0.062008    0.058621   1.0578  0.290652    
## time2017                                0.025068    0.034337   0.7300  0.465689    
## iis135                                  0.280458    0.091826   3.0542  0.002372 ** 
## iis390                                 -0.549942    0.088970  -6.1812 1.286e-09 ***
## iis391                                 -0.731914    0.090219  -8.1126 3.592e-15 ***
## iis392                                 -1.190416    0.091204 -13.0523 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis393                                 -2.193335    0.096984 -22.6153 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis394                                 -1.991231    0.105368 -18.8978 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis395                                 -1.629517    0.112783 -14.4482 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis396                                 -1.036792    0.104177  -9.9522 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis512                                 -0.310871    0.100765  -3.0851  0.002143 ** 
## iis551                                  0.357051    0.086191   4.1426 4.008e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.1994                       0.212348    0.076561   2.7736  0.005743 ** 
## fesisFrance.1993                       -0.386466    0.070632  -5.4716 6.945e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2004                    0.289639    0.087774   3.2998  0.001034 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2013                   -0.424495    0.088107  -4.8180 1.906e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016                   -0.701134    0.092736  -7.5605 1.829e-13 ***
## fesisPortugal.2019                     -0.365794    0.088268  -4.1441 3.982e-05 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016                -0.379726    0.083851  -4.5286 7.370e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   15.371  1 8.834e-05 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 12.501  1 0.0004066 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.07993
## R-squared          0.99849
## Log-lik.(n=672)  820.34116

## [1] "Formula: pcce(l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq)"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Wed Nov  9 22:58:54 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                              -3.0770e+00  4.5849e+00  -0.6711  0.502438    
## lpop                                 -5.3777e-01  6.3358e-01  -0.8488  0.396391    
## lgdp_wb_sq                            5.5696e-02  8.5751e-02   0.6495  0.516294    
## mean_l_emissions_data_australia       5.4127e-01  6.7498e-01   0.8019  0.422968    
## mean_l_emissions_data_austria         6.9297e-01  6.9012e-01   1.0041  0.315772    
## mean_l_emissions_data_belgium         3.4824e-01  6.8943e-01   0.5051  0.613691    
## mean_l_emissions_data_canada          3.8421e-01  6.9023e-01   0.5566  0.578005    
## mean_l_emissions_data_denmark         1.7046e+00  6.9038e-01   2.4691  0.013862 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_finland         1.5032e+00  6.8941e-01   2.1805  0.029665 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_france          9.9783e-01  6.9034e-01   1.4454  0.148933    
## mean_l_emissions_data_germany         1.0626e+00  6.9056e-01   1.5387  0.124480    
## mean_l_emissions_data_greece          1.5844e+00  6.9627e-01   2.2756  0.023273 *  
## mean_l_emissions_data_ireland         3.4746e-01  7.0560e-01   0.4924  0.622620    
## mean_l_emissions_data_italy           9.1583e-01  6.9114e-01   1.3251  0.185713    
## mean_l_emissions_data_japan           8.5815e-01  6.8999e-01   1.2437  0.214161    
## mean_l_emissions_data_luxembourg      7.1622e-01  7.6207e-01   0.9398  0.347735    
## mean_l_emissions_data_netherlands     5.2596e-01  6.8935e-01   0.7630  0.445817    
## mean_l_emissions_data_new_zealand     7.4615e-01  6.9240e-01   1.0776  0.281694    
## mean_l_emissions_data_portugal       -8.2371e-02  7.2793e-01  -0.1132  0.909948    
## mean_l_emissions_data_spain           1.2724e+00  6.9819e-01   1.8224  0.068957 .  
## mean_l_emissions_data_sweden          5.6908e-01  6.9172e-01   0.8227  0.411046    
## mean_l_emissions_data_switzerland     1.7278e-01  6.8959e-01   0.2506  0.802256    
## mean_l_emissions_data_united_kingdom  1.9415e+00  6.8956e-01   2.8155  0.005052 ** 
## mean_l_emissions_data_united_states   5.5069e-01  6.8965e-01   0.7985  0.424934    
## mean_lgdp_data_australia             -1.5000e+00  1.3142e+01  -0.1141  0.909170    
## mean_lgdp_data_austria               -6.3519e+01  5.3971e+01  -1.1769  0.239764    
## mean_lgdp_data_belgium               -2.3224e+01  5.4012e+01  -0.4300  0.667384    
## mean_lgdp_data_canada                -5.6403e+00  5.4383e+01  -0.1037  0.917437    
## mean_lgdp_data_denmark                2.5084e+01  5.3985e+01   0.4646  0.642379    
## mean_lgdp_data_finland                2.5794e+01  5.4018e+01   0.4775  0.633197    
## mean_lgdp_data_france                -1.0936e+02  5.4336e+01  -2.0126  0.044665 *  
## mean_lgdp_data_germany               -1.3648e+02  5.5129e+01  -2.4757  0.013612 *  
## mean_lgdp_data_greece                -3.9586e+01  5.5277e+01  -0.7161  0.474225    
## mean_lgdp_data_ireland                1.7905e+01  5.7415e+01   0.3118  0.755279    
## mean_lgdp_data_italy                 -6.9890e+01  5.4006e+01  -1.2941  0.196195    
## mean_lgdp_data_japan                 -1.1309e+02  5.5111e+01  -2.0520  0.040668 *  
## mean_lgdp_data_luxembourg            -7.5099e+01  6.1902e+01  -1.2132  0.225601    
## mean_lgdp_data_netherlands           -2.0331e+01  5.4100e+01  -0.3758  0.707207    
## mean_lgdp_data_new_zealand            5.6844e+01  5.4714e+01   1.0389  0.299319    
## mean_lgdp_data_portugal              -4.2151e+01  5.5660e+01  -0.7573  0.449217    
## mean_lgdp_data_spain                 -1.0138e+02  5.4296e+01  -1.8672  0.062427 .  
## mean_lgdp_data_sweden                -1.0436e+01  5.4260e+01  -0.1923  0.847558    
## mean_lgdp_data_switzerland           -4.1581e+01  5.4401e+01  -0.7643  0.445010    
## mean_lgdp_data_united_kingdom        -6.3670e+01  5.4708e+01  -1.1638  0.245030    
## mean_lgdp_data_united_states         -4.1800e+00  5.4149e+01  -0.0772  0.938498    
## mean_lpop_data_australia              5.0141e+00  1.0532e+01   0.4761  0.634211    
## mean_lpop_data_austria                2.2190e+00  1.0058e+01   0.2206  0.825475    
## mean_lpop_data_belgium                3.0283e-02  1.0072e+01   0.0030  0.997602    
## mean_lpop_data_canada                -1.8759e+00  1.0084e+01  -0.1860  0.852501    
## mean_lpop_data_denmark                4.3973e+00  1.0053e+01   0.4374  0.661977    
## mean_lpop_data_finland                4.5264e+00  1.0058e+01   0.4500  0.652876    
## mean_lpop_data_france                 1.0621e+00  1.0063e+01   0.1055  0.915989    
## mean_lpop_data_germany                2.8536e+00  1.0068e+01   0.2834  0.776954    
## mean_lpop_data_greece                 2.7830e+00  1.0062e+01   0.2766  0.782210    
## mean_lpop_data_ireland               -7.2052e-01  1.0144e+01  -0.0710  0.943403    
## mean_lpop_data_italy                  2.4994e-01  1.0064e+01   0.0248  0.980197    
## mean_lpop_data_japan                  8.4546e+00  1.0051e+01   0.8412  0.400626    
## mean_lpop_data_luxembourg             6.0184e+00  1.0407e+01   0.5783  0.563309    
## mean_lpop_data_netherlands            3.4321e+00  1.0053e+01   0.3414  0.732949    
## mean_lpop_data_new_zealand           -1.4821e+00  1.0094e+01  -0.1468  0.883330    
## mean_lpop_data_portugal              -5.8475e+00  1.0094e+01  -0.5793  0.562626    
## mean_lpop_data_spain                 -3.0830e+00  1.0126e+01  -0.3045  0.760891    
## mean_lpop_data_sweden                 6.6075e+00  1.0061e+01   0.6568  0.511625    
## mean_lpop_data_switzerland            2.0659e+00  1.0090e+01   0.2047  0.837849    
## mean_lpop_data_united_kingdom         5.5394e+00  1.0061e+01   0.5506  0.582154    
## mean_lpop_data_united_states          1.1196e+00  1.0085e+01   0.1110  0.911640    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_australia           2.0525e-02  2.2119e-01   0.0928  0.926103    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_austria             1.1738e+00  9.9018e-01   1.1855  0.236369    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_belgium             4.2026e-01  9.9098e-01   0.4241  0.671678    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_canada              1.1842e-01  9.9826e-01   0.1186  0.905613    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_denmark            -5.1952e-01  9.9021e-01  -0.5247  0.600041    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_finland            -4.9784e-01  9.9077e-01  -0.5025  0.615545    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_france              2.0301e+00  9.9760e-01   2.0350  0.042354 *  
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_germany             2.5138e+00  1.0122e+00   2.4835  0.013320 *  
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_greece              7.2266e-01  1.0140e+00   0.7127  0.476342    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_ireland            -3.1631e-01  1.0511e+00  -0.3009  0.763579    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_italy               1.2977e+00  9.9095e-01   1.3096  0.190906    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_japan               2.0665e+00  1.0121e+00   2.0418  0.041674 *  
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_luxembourg          1.3606e+00  1.1373e+00   1.1964  0.232093    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_netherlands         3.6790e-01  9.9247e-01   0.3707  0.711018    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_new_zealand        -1.0181e+00  1.0034e+00  -1.0147  0.310700    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_portugal            8.2060e-01  1.0204e+00   0.8042  0.421637    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_spain               1.9102e+00  9.9689e-01   1.9162  0.055886 .  
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_sweden              1.5607e-01  9.9584e-01   0.1567  0.875527    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_switzerland         7.7183e-01  9.9831e-01   0.7731  0.439787    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_united_kingdom      1.1387e+00  1.0052e+00   1.1328  0.257797    
## mean_lgdp_sq_data_united_states       6.7998e-02  9.9369e-01   0.0684  0.945469    
## idAustria                             8.7339e+02  6.7256e+02   1.2986  0.194646    
## idBelgium                             3.7690e+02  6.7392e+02   0.5593  0.576220    
## idCanada                              1.5604e+02  6.7417e+02   0.2315  0.817050    
## idDenmark                            -3.2759e+02  6.7129e+02  -0.4880  0.625754    
## idFinland                            -3.6294e+02  6.7164e+02  -0.5404  0.589164    
## idFrance                              1.5033e+03  6.7398e+02   2.2306  0.026131 *  
## idGermany                             1.8540e+03  6.7922e+02   2.7297  0.006552 ** 
## idGreece                              5.3920e+02  6.8335e+02   0.7890  0.430438    
## idIreland                            -1.8420e+02  7.0407e+02  -0.2616  0.793719    
## idItaly                               9.8842e+02  6.7713e+02   1.4597  0.144961    
## idJapan                               1.4589e+03  6.7975e+02   2.1462  0.032310 *  
## idLuxembourg                          9.8192e+02  7.7589e+02   1.2655  0.206235    
## idNetherlands                         2.7975e+02  6.7372e+02   0.4152  0.678140    
## idNewZealand                         -7.1512e+02  6.7847e+02  -1.0540  0.292353    
## idPortugal                            6.9684e+02  6.8764e+02   1.0134  0.311343    
## idSpain                               1.4418e+03  6.7403e+02   2.1391  0.032887 *  
## idSweden                              1.1231e+02  6.7663e+02   0.1660  0.868236    
## idSwitzerland                         5.8117e+02  6.7742e+02   0.8579  0.391331    
## idUnitedKingdom                       8.3854e+02  6.7747e+02   1.2378  0.216358    
## idUnitedStates                        1.0590e+02  6.8012e+02   0.1557  0.876319    
## time1990                             -2.8102e-02  1.0526e+00  -0.0267  0.978712    
## time1991                             -1.2845e-02  9.4740e-01  -0.0136  0.989188    
## time1992                             -2.2827e-02  8.9216e-01  -0.0256  0.979597    
## time1993                             -2.8025e-02  8.6726e-01  -0.0323  0.974234    
## time1994                             -9.3195e-03  8.3442e-01  -0.0112  0.991093    
## time1995                              3.5779e-02  8.1301e-01   0.0440  0.964914    
## time1996                              6.2465e-02  7.6379e-01   0.0818  0.934851    
## time1997                              1.0357e-01  7.6562e-01   0.1353  0.892446    
## time1998                              1.7055e-01  7.6911e-01   0.2218  0.824590    
## time1999                              1.8953e-01  7.6268e-01   0.2485  0.803838    
## time2000                              1.8902e-01  7.4619e-01   0.2533  0.800123    
## time2001                              1.7820e-01  6.7375e-01   0.2645  0.791501    
## time2002                              1.4302e-01  5.8514e-01   0.2444  0.807005    
## time2003                              1.4684e-01  5.1237e-01   0.2866  0.774541    
## time2004                              1.4902e-01  4.7856e-01   0.3114  0.755617    
## time2005                              1.4116e-01  4.3128e-01   0.3273  0.743577    
## time2006                              1.4456e-01  3.8674e-01   0.3738  0.708714    
## time2007                              1.4564e-01  3.6469e-01   0.3994  0.689796    
## time2008                              1.1912e-01  3.1384e-01   0.3796  0.704432    
## time2009                              1.0065e-01  2.5516e-01   0.3944  0.693413    
## time2010                              8.7447e-02  1.9617e-01   0.4458  0.655938    
## time2011                              5.6511e-02  1.7682e-01   0.3196  0.749399    
## time2012                              3.3383e-02  1.3010e-01   0.2566  0.797585    
## time2013                              3.2819e-02  1.1551e-01   0.2841  0.776427    
## time2014                              1.2071e-02  1.0964e-01   0.1101  0.912373    
## time2015                              9.2510e-03  8.6390e-02   0.1071  0.914763    
## time2016                              3.0531e-02  6.3310e-02   0.4822  0.629831    
## time2017                              1.9217e-02  3.7624e-02   0.5108  0.609720    
## iis390                               -5.6796e-01  9.7285e-02  -5.8381 9.239e-09 ***
## iis391                               -7.9888e-01  9.7559e-02  -8.1887 2.006e-15 ***
## iis392                               -1.2306e+00  9.8715e-02 -12.4666 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis393                               -2.2409e+00  1.0508e-01 -21.3256 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis394                               -2.0505e+00  1.1424e-01 -17.9499 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis395                               -1.7158e+00  1.2115e-01 -14.1629 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis396                               -1.1463e+00  1.0924e-01 -10.4934 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013                 -4.9771e-01  9.4649e-02  -5.2585 2.115e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016                 -7.4863e-01  9.9437e-02  -7.5286 2.238e-13 ***
## fesisPortugal.2019                   -4.6727e-01  9.0298e-02  -5.1748 3.250e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   30.9805  1 2.606e-08 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  9.8946  1  0.001658 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.08773
## R-squared          0.99815
## Log-lik.(n=672)  754.27311
AR = 1

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:16:52 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                           coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                   0.812601  0.019326  42.0480 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp_wb              -0.773941  1.564141  -0.4948 0.6209265    
## lpop                 -3.319895  1.970843  -1.6845 0.0926212 .  
## lgdp_wb_sq            0.100029  0.023731   4.2152 2.894e-05 ***
## idAustria            -0.479933  0.053142  -9.0311 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium            -0.414458  0.045943  -9.0211 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada             -0.108230  0.024267  -4.4599 9.847e-06 ***
## idDenmark            -0.304564  0.054285  -5.6104 3.126e-08 ***
## idFinland            -0.402255  0.045578  -8.8256 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance             -0.284954  0.034747  -8.2009 1.536e-15 ***
## idGermany             0.093123  0.025448   3.6594 0.0002758 ***
## idGreece             -0.316393  0.037366  -8.4675 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland            -0.505402  0.055543  -9.0992 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly              -0.081357  0.023290  -3.4932 0.0005136 ***
## idJapan               0.181221  0.029172   6.2123 9.960e-10 ***
## idLuxembourg         -0.862136  0.102908  -8.3777 4.067e-16 ***
## idNetherlands        -0.223996  0.031733  -7.0588 4.807e-12 ***
## idNewZealand         -0.635694  0.068497  -9.2806 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal           -0.439075  0.049310  -8.9043 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain              -0.168052  0.027144  -6.1911 1.130e-09 ***
## idSweden             -0.572496  0.060950  -9.3928 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland        -0.786230  0.084266  -9.3303 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom      -0.061537  0.022415  -2.7454 0.0062315 ** 
## idUnitedStates        0.456445  0.053385   8.5500 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time1991              4.986748  2.166492   2.3018 0.0217015 *  
## time1992              4.928014  2.153665   2.2882 0.0224842 *  
## time1993              4.801855  2.148864   2.2346 0.0258229 *  
## time1994              4.696817  2.151366   2.1832 0.0294220 *  
## time1995              4.592892  2.147927   2.1383 0.0329097 *  
## time1996              4.556418  2.140024   2.1291 0.0336623 *  
## time1997              4.385236  2.143941   2.0454 0.0412644 *  
## time1998              4.261821  2.149345   1.9828 0.0478550 *  
## time1999              4.036980  2.161556   1.8676 0.0623173 .  
## time2000              3.831380  2.173002   1.7632 0.0783969 .  
## time2001              3.812217  2.165549   1.7604 0.0788674 .  
## time2002              3.706318  2.164497   1.7123 0.0873708 .  
## time2003              3.666437  2.160115   1.6973 0.0901690 .  
## time2004              3.517783  2.162104   1.6270 0.1042754    
## time2005              3.416315  2.164964   1.5780 0.1151098    
## time2006              3.282879  2.163747   1.5172 0.1297551    
## time2007              3.220429  2.160218   1.4908 0.1365595    
## time2008              3.177045  2.148897   1.4785 0.1398284    
## time2009              3.339793  2.114307   1.5796 0.1147392    
## time2010              3.319814  2.114070   1.5703 0.1168799    
## time2011              3.107893  2.116215   1.4686 0.1424800    
## time2012              3.099912  2.109251   1.4697 0.1421912    
## time2013              2.960617  2.105895   1.4059 0.1602970    
## time2014              2.831683  2.106774   1.3441 0.1794455    
## time2015              2.894136  2.098867   1.3789 0.1684550    
## time2016              2.853788  2.086679   1.3676 0.1719593    
## time2017              2.770491  2.085412   1.3285 0.1845312    
## time2018              2.641591  2.077178   1.2717 0.2039810    
## iis130                0.290764  0.098877   2.9407 0.0034054 ** 
## iis140                0.384907  0.092215   4.1740 3.451e-05 ***
## iis153               -0.308918  0.092651  -3.3342 0.0009098 ***
## iis170               -0.379565  0.091814  -4.1341 4.089e-05 ***
## iis171                0.390506  0.091877   4.2503 2.487e-05 ***
## iis194                0.274617  0.091866   2.9893 0.0029142 ** 
## iis379               -0.330873  0.098928  -3.3446 0.0008772 ***
## iis380               -1.006498  0.099048 -10.1617 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383                0.261839  0.098724   2.6522 0.0082142 ** 
## iis384                0.816234  0.095990   8.5033 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis441                0.314643  0.092136   3.4150 0.0006824 ***
## iis485               -0.322129  0.091644  -3.5150 0.0004740 ***
## iis533                0.384083  0.091778   4.1849 3.294e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.1997    -0.200354  0.045728  -4.3814 1.399e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -0.340947  0.069779  -4.8861 1.332e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2001  0.203593  0.049354   4.1252 4.246e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -0.536052  0.069472  -7.7161 5.254e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017  0.349596  0.076749   4.5550 6.385e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    1.1233  1 0.2892170    
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.6937  1 0.0002152 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.08797
## R-squared          0.99789
## Log-lik.(n=651)  693.68252

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:17:06 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                           coef std.error  t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                   0.800393  0.020959 38.1881 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp_wb              -1.602006  1.687107 -0.9496 0.3427250    
## lpop                 -2.338215  2.136670 -1.0943 0.2742576    
## lgdp_wb_sq            0.106643  0.025893  4.1186 4.355e-05 ***
## idAustria            -0.510391  0.057782 -8.8330 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium            -0.439816  0.049997 -8.7968 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada             -0.114210  0.026640 -4.2872 2.113e-05 ***
## idDenmark            -0.280519  0.056642 -4.9525 9.576e-07 ***
## idFinland            -0.426829  0.049353 -8.6484 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance             -0.292893  0.037895 -7.7291 4.676e-14 ***
## idGermany             0.100816  0.027905  3.6128 0.0003287 ***
## idGreece             -0.335312  0.040734 -8.2318 1.184e-15 ***
## idIreland            -0.537525  0.060380 -8.9024 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly              -0.085507  0.025594 -3.3409 0.0008876 ***
## idJapan               0.193068  0.031905  6.0513 2.552e-09 ***
## idLuxembourg         -0.914055  0.112072 -8.1560 2.085e-15 ***
## idNetherlands        -0.238229  0.034662 -6.8730 1.601e-11 ***
## idNewZealand         -0.666576  0.074611 -8.9341 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal           -0.477160  0.053526 -8.9146 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain              -0.177788  0.029726 -5.9809 3.845e-09 ***
## idSweden             -0.595858  0.066120 -9.0118 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland        -0.837556  0.091483 -9.1554 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom      -0.062656  0.024657 -2.5411 0.0113049 *  
## idUnitedStates        0.487072  0.058045  8.3913 3.553e-16 ***
## time1991              6.054957  2.340576  2.5870 0.0099206 ** 
## time1992              5.989563  2.326807  2.5742 0.0102909 *  
## time1993              5.864776  2.321419  2.5264 0.0117846 *  
## time1994              5.772622  2.323695  2.4842 0.0132586 *  
## time1995              5.671069  2.319789  2.4446 0.0147904 *  
## time1996              5.663931  2.311184  2.4507 0.0145481 *  
## time1997              5.472226  2.315058  2.3638 0.0184134 *  
## time1998              5.369859  2.320556  2.3140 0.0210076 *  
## time1999              5.149124  2.333270  2.2068 0.0277098 *  
## time2000              4.957769  2.345254  2.1140 0.0349371 *  
## time2001              4.933898  2.337173  2.1111 0.0351870 *  
## time2002              4.831451  2.335900  2.0683 0.0390418 *  
## time2003              4.791284  2.331114  2.0554 0.0402829 *  
## time2004              4.647927  2.333123  1.9921 0.0468144 *  
## time2005              4.533576  2.336020  1.9407 0.0527665 .  
## time2006              4.457144  2.334710  1.9091 0.0567361 .  
## time2007              4.357794  2.330783  1.8697 0.0620239 .  
## time2008              4.308084  2.318563  1.8581 0.0636542 .  
## time2009              4.445411  2.281477  1.9485 0.0518305 .  
## time2010              4.412413  2.281061  1.9344 0.0535448 .  
## time2011              4.220737  2.283269  1.8486 0.0650221 .  
## time2012              4.209380  2.275694  1.8497 0.0648541 .  
## time2013              4.070161  2.272004  1.7914 0.0737341 .  
## time2014              3.943452  2.272836  1.7350 0.0832557 .  
## time2015              4.000854  2.264286  1.7669 0.0777546 .  
## time2016              3.953672  2.251132  1.7563 0.0795545 .  
## time2017              3.871963  2.249689  1.7211 0.0857541 .  
## time2018              3.740145  2.240763  1.6691 0.0956195 .  
## iis380               -0.961894  0.107345 -8.9608 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383                0.515204  0.109282  4.7144 3.027e-06 ***
## iis384                0.803745  0.105532  7.6162 1.042e-13 ***
## fesisDenmark.1997    -0.248158  0.046616 -5.3234 1.449e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -0.419534  0.074233 -5.6516 2.475e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002  0.272451  0.050953  5.3471 1.279e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -0.541590  0.076404 -7.0885 3.881e-12 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017  0.343784  0.084367  4.0749 5.233e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    6.6105  1   0.01014 *  
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 19.0890  1 1.248e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09678
## R-squared          0.99740
## Log-lik.(n=651)  626.56146
ETS (all phases)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 19:09:19 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -0.0686478  0.7435546  -0.0923 0.9264721    
## lpop                    -1.2214350  0.2236083  -5.4624 6.934e-08 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.0075826  0.0144235   0.5257 0.5992880    
## EU_ETS_05               -0.0960721  0.0354084  -2.7133 0.0068571 ** 
## EU_ETS_08               -0.0544422  0.0381920  -1.4255 0.1545454    
## EU_ETS_13               -0.1738102  0.0314266  -5.5307 4.798e-08 ***
## idAustria               -2.9613164  0.1420124 -20.8525 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.1046789  0.1029397 -20.4458 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                 0.1729370  0.1082406   1.5977 0.1106432    
## idDenmark               -2.7274574  0.2188041 -12.4653 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.8658848  0.2132697 -13.4378 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -0.0585241  0.2265016  -0.2584 0.7962018    
## idGermany                2.2343272  0.2739391   8.1563 2.086e-15 ***
## idGreece                -1.4968392  0.0945100 -15.8379 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.6955032  0.2566270 -14.4003 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  1.0327497  0.2194079   4.7070 3.136e-06 ***
## idJapan                  2.8779478  0.3501591   8.2190 1.307e-15 ***
## idLuxembourg            -8.0185646  0.6846098 -11.7126 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.0736893  0.0496597 -21.6209 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.8459655  0.2648493 -18.2971 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.2527709  0.0992463 -22.6988 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                  0.2333835  0.1776691   1.3136 0.1894964    
## idSweden                -3.3178557  0.1274546 -26.0317 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.0389091  0.1889724 -26.6648 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          1.5320417  0.2229887   6.8705 1.629e-11 ***
## idUnitedStates           5.0362205  0.5002798  10.0668 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time1990                28.3979303 10.0687831   2.8204 0.0049577 ** 
## time1991                28.4698891 10.0690240   2.8275 0.0048509 ** 
## time1992                28.4722979 10.0689656   2.8277 0.0048471 ** 
## time1993                28.4372156 10.0692327   2.8242 0.0049005 ** 
## time1994                28.4642338 10.0691972   2.8269 0.0048600 ** 
## time1995                28.4992092 10.0681015   2.8306 0.0048037 ** 
## time1996                28.5178831 10.0675422   2.8327 0.0047740 ** 
## time1997                28.5192425 10.0651262   2.8335 0.0047620 ** 
## time1998                28.5371822 10.0642710   2.8355 0.0047324 ** 
## time1999                28.5232124 10.0633283   2.8344 0.0047488 ** 
## time2000                28.5156320 10.0616819   2.8341 0.0047530 ** 
## time2001                28.5636195 10.0610923   2.8390 0.0046811 ** 
## time2002                28.5897733 10.0603565   2.8418 0.0046407 ** 
## time2003                28.6397634 10.0616659   2.8464 0.0045751 ** 
## time2004                28.6570733 10.0605650   2.8485 0.0045464 ** 
## time2005                28.7177536 10.0594079   2.8548 0.0044575 ** 
## time2006                28.7285899 10.0584172   2.8562 0.0044388 ** 
## time2007                28.7045123 10.0575494   2.8540 0.0044685 ** 
## time2008                28.7032036 10.0567361   2.8541 0.0044671 ** 
## time2009                28.6666130 10.0591779   2.8498 0.0045275 ** 
## time2010                28.6940291 10.0583436   2.8528 0.0044861 ** 
## time2011                28.6389854 10.0579110   2.8474 0.0045611 ** 
## time2012                28.6394084 10.0580818   2.8474 0.0045612 ** 
## time2013                28.7123709 10.0554298   2.8554 0.0044493 ** 
## time2014                28.6177358 10.0550684   2.8461 0.0045796 ** 
## time2015                28.5841145 10.0541110   2.8430 0.0046234 ** 
## time2016                28.5749924 10.0538432   2.8422 0.0046353 ** 
## time2017                28.6008020 10.0528718   2.8450 0.0045947 ** 
## time2018                28.5412984 10.0520899   2.8393 0.0046765 ** 
## time2019                28.4500046 10.0515563   2.8304 0.0048072 ** 
## time2020                28.3632824 10.0548709   2.8208 0.0049508 ** 
## time2021                28.3937209 10.0522997   2.8246 0.0048940 ** 
## iis181                   0.3849085  0.1149785   3.3477 0.0008669 ***
## iis414                  -0.9868928  0.1188136  -8.3062 6.788e-16 ***
## iis415                  -2.0504256  0.1180128 -17.3746 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.9305073  0.1172671 -16.4625 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.6593379  0.1167103 -14.2176 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.1249147  0.1164289  -9.6618 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2003  -0.1513589  0.0559334  -2.7061 0.0070057 ** 
## fesisAustria.2015        0.2144431  0.0486261   4.4100 1.228e-05 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001       -0.2234803  0.0420472  -5.3150 1.515e-07 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.4348264  0.0443794  -9.7979 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -0.5494354  0.0589505  -9.3203 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999          0.2366958  0.0465286   5.0871 4.892e-07 ***
## fesisFrance.2005         0.1717576  0.0420961   4.0801 5.120e-05 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1994 -0.2688089  0.0625465  -4.2977 2.018e-05 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4381484  0.0537993  -8.1441 2.284e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.7593481  0.0930701  -8.1589 2.047e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.3883464  0.0914377   4.2471 2.516e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.2673426  0.0757327  -3.5301 0.0004478 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.7055424  0.0802442  -8.7924 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.3100113  0.0464668   6.6717 5.832e-11 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.1958459  0.0518726   3.7755 0.0001758 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      0.2270142  0.0508741   4.4623 9.715e-06 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      0.1824081  0.0563030   3.2398 0.0012636 ** 
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.4926769  0.0543752   9.0607 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   168.749  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  58.317  1 2.232e-14 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10801
## R-squared          0.99687
## Log-lik.(n=672)  583.05620

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 19:09:47 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -1.630622  0.747452  -2.1816 0.0295290 *  
## lpop                    -0.469470  0.231625  -2.0269 0.0431199 *  
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.035158  0.014602   2.4078 0.0163518 *  
## EU_ETS_05               -0.091584  0.038734  -2.3644 0.0183771 *  
## EU_ETS_08               -0.046546  0.042750  -1.0888 0.2766865    
## EU_ETS_13               -0.130724  0.034135  -3.8296 0.0001419 ***
## idAustria               -2.517829  0.147599 -17.0585 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.029310  0.104108 -19.4924 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.359506  0.093129  -3.8603 0.0001256 ***
## idDenmark               -2.008375  0.227253  -8.8376 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.185682  0.221481  -9.8685 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.009377  0.214803  -4.6991 3.245e-06 ***
## idGermany                0.992384  0.256063   3.8756 0.0001181 ***
## idGreece                -1.355534  0.101139 -13.4027 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.860029  0.266252 -10.7418 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.049944  0.206623   0.2417 0.8090831    
## idJapan                  1.315595  0.330317   3.9828 7.648e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg            -5.757051  0.711025  -8.0968 3.164e-15 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.120173  0.047830 -23.4197 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.994304  0.274913 -14.5294 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.085182  0.106072 -19.6581 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.368733  0.175754  -2.0980 0.0363226 *  
## idSweden                -2.951008  0.132367 -22.2942 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.512238  0.198946 -22.6807 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.297860  0.201559   1.4778 0.1399932    
## idUnitedStates           2.809065  0.468280   5.9987 3.443e-09 ***
## time1990                38.078889 10.512180   3.6224 0.0003167 ***
## time1991                38.145521 10.512593   3.6286 0.0003093 ***
## time1992                38.143279 10.512666   3.6283 0.0003096 ***
## time1993                38.104195 10.513069   3.6245 0.0003142 ***
## time1994                38.116672 10.512278   3.6259 0.0003124 ***
## time1995                38.150165 10.511106   3.6295 0.0003082 ***
## time1996                38.185064 10.510470   3.6330 0.0003041 ***
## time1997                38.168683 10.507907   3.6324 0.0003049 ***
## time1998                38.197064 10.506675   3.6355 0.0003013 ***
## time1999                38.194270 10.505293   3.6357 0.0003011 ***
## time2000                38.185459 10.503558   3.6355 0.0003013 ***
## time2001                38.219315 10.503082   3.6389 0.0002975 ***
## time2002                38.242743 10.502350   3.6414 0.0002947 ***
## time2003                38.293904 10.503711   3.6458 0.0002898 ***
## time2004                38.309406 10.502564   3.6476 0.0002877 ***
## time2005                38.371150 10.501838   3.6538 0.0002811 ***
## time2006                38.378671 10.500868   3.6548 0.0002800 ***
## time2007                38.351402 10.500027   3.6525 0.0002824 ***
## time2008                38.338238 10.499498   3.6514 0.0002836 ***
## time2009                38.294087 10.502343   3.6462 0.0002893 ***
## time2010                38.317614 10.501560   3.6488 0.0002865 ***
## time2011                38.258811 10.501205   3.6433 0.0002925 ***
## time2012                38.254502 10.501527   3.6428 0.0002931 ***
## time2013                38.295950 10.499034   3.6476 0.0002878 ***
## time2014                38.199647 10.498709   3.6385 0.0002979 ***
## time2015                38.173223 10.497900   3.6363 0.0003004 ***
## time2016                38.187339 10.497476   3.6378 0.0002987 ***
## time2017                38.211032 10.496544   3.6403 0.0002958 ***
## time2018                38.148127 10.495802   3.6346 0.0003023 ***
## time2019                38.053559 10.495323   3.6258 0.0003126 ***
## time2020                37.960846 10.499060   3.6156 0.0003248 ***
## time2021                37.992061 10.496273   3.6196 0.0003200 ***
## iis414                  -0.976502  0.132789  -7.3538 6.363e-13 ***
## iis415                  -2.045297  0.131943 -15.5014 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.929347  0.131175 -14.7082 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.652501  0.130588 -12.6543 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.106410  0.130336  -8.4889 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2003  -0.262117  0.058399  -4.4884 8.610e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.459931  0.048608  -9.4620 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -0.584682  0.065734  -8.8947 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.565105  0.058470  -9.6648 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.761667  0.104172  -7.3116 8.491e-13 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.386678  0.101824   3.7975 0.0001610 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.337207  0.084372  -3.9967 7.226e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.775140  0.089331  -8.6772 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.269331  0.051439   5.2359 2.276e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.457891  0.060194   7.6069 1.093e-13 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   220.587  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  67.692  1  2.22e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.12096
## R-squared          0.99601
## Log-lik.(n=672)  502.45085
ETS (individual)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_05"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:43:19 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -0.1267897  0.5726459  -0.2214  0.824849    
## lpop                     0.3186051  0.2390803   1.3326  0.183162    
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.0035778  0.0111473   0.3210  0.748354    
## EU_ETS_05               -0.0793520  0.0256187  -3.0974  0.002044 ** 
## idAustria               -2.0366687  0.1518824 -13.4095 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.7176784  0.1049366 -16.3687 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.6075640  0.1008459  -6.0247 2.962e-09 ***
## idDenmark               -1.2295305  0.2361981  -5.2055 2.664e-07 ***
## idFinland               -1.4249329  0.2308342  -6.1730 1.237e-09 ***
## idFrance                -1.6988415  0.2302925  -7.3769 5.439e-13 ***
## idGermany                0.1952264  0.2738491   0.7129  0.476187    
## idGreece                -1.1607341  0.0963374 -12.0486 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -1.9254898  0.2782506  -6.9200 1.166e-11 ***
## idItaly                 -0.6264153  0.2211876  -2.8321  0.004781 ** 
## idJapan                  0.1959122  0.3577892   0.5476  0.584196    
## idLuxembourg            -3.1030343  0.7412777  -4.1861 3.265e-05 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.0357718  0.0442200 -23.4232 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.0130399  0.2870972 -10.4948 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.8635323  0.1020291 -18.2647 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.9553930  0.1852124  -5.1584 3.393e-07 ***
## idSweden                -2.5222484  0.1356512 -18.5936 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -3.7912236  0.2054730 -18.4512 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -0.3295539  0.2167141  -1.5207  0.128867    
## idUnitedStates           1.4910352  0.4928907   3.0251  0.002592 ** 
## time1990                 7.3813892  8.3028393   0.8890  0.374350    
## time1991                 7.4430442  8.3034049   0.8964  0.370408    
## time1992                 7.4374640  8.3036613   0.8957  0.370781    
## time1993                 7.3943643  8.3041572   0.8904  0.373587    
## time1994                 7.4079600  8.3036371   0.8921  0.372680    
## time1995                 7.4441138  8.3027898   0.8966  0.370304    
## time1996                 7.4794596  8.3024001   0.9009  0.368015    
## time1997                 7.4676689  8.3002548   0.8997  0.368647    
## time1998                 7.4991700  8.2993478   0.9036  0.366579    
## time1999                 7.5001165  8.2983155   0.9038  0.366459    
## time2000                 7.4958450  8.2970231   0.9034  0.366657    
## time2001                 7.5291464  8.2967872   0.9075  0.364520    
## time2002                 7.5525702  8.2963192   0.9104  0.363004    
## time2003                 7.5890559  8.2963523   0.9147  0.360694    
## time2004                 7.6019365  8.2956269   0.9164  0.359838    
## time2005                 7.6543706  8.2928600   0.9230  0.356376    
## time2006                 7.6626193  8.2922589   0.9241  0.355823    
## time2007                 7.6357321  8.2917560   0.9209  0.357483    
## time2008                 7.5836078  8.2924202   0.9145  0.360811    
## time2009                 7.5255006  8.2949664   0.9072  0.364647    
## time2010                 7.5489477  8.2945157   0.9101  0.363130    
## time2011                 7.4888497  8.2943888   0.9029  0.366952    
## time2012                 7.4582592  8.2950806   0.8991  0.368952    
## time2013                 7.4093921  8.2945824   0.8933  0.372066    
## time2014                 7.3342404  8.2944070   0.8842  0.376922    
## time2015                 7.2974011  8.2938212   0.8799  0.379289    
## time2016                 7.3118301  8.2935133   0.8816  0.378330    
## time2017                 7.3078792  8.2929985   0.8812  0.378558    
## time2018                 7.2450269  8.2925676   0.8737  0.382645    
## time2019                 7.1654937  8.2923063   0.8641  0.387872    
## time2020                 7.0576435  8.2956142   0.8508  0.395239    
## time2021                 7.0816405  8.2933256   0.8539  0.393504    
## iis414                  -0.8889842  0.1252502  -7.0977 3.608e-12 ***
## iis415                  -1.9689317  0.1246683 -15.7934 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8648570  0.1241469 -15.0214 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.6006928  0.1237331 -12.9367 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0622298  0.1235318  -8.5988 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis619                  -0.3304377  0.1269337  -2.6032  0.009464 ** 
## iis620                  -0.3460312  0.1269714  -2.7253  0.006613 ** 
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.3884594  0.0492619  -7.8856 1.492e-14 ***
## fesisDenmark.2014       -0.4588075  0.0609288  -7.5302 1.877e-13 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.5567490  0.0545241 -10.2111 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.7966496  0.0986759  -8.0734 3.773e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.2805056  0.0952821   2.9439  0.003366 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.4612314  0.0795714  -5.7964 1.097e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.8216139  0.0848519  -9.6829 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.2638153  0.0484689   5.4430 7.655e-08 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          0.4667068  0.0506516   9.2141 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015      0.2279848  0.0544943   4.1836 3.299e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.4360702  0.0567554   7.6833 6.377e-14 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   195.572  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  59.808  1 1.044e-14 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11467
## R-squared          0.99642
## Log-lik.(n=672)  538.80799

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_08"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 16:19:12 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                  0.0738935  0.5579414   0.1324 0.8946810    
## lpop                     0.7007712  0.2314186   3.0282 0.0025658 ** 
## lgdp_wb_sq              -0.0015546  0.0108862  -0.1428 0.8864891    
## EU_ETS_08               -0.0797879  0.0264831  -3.0128 0.0026974 ** 
## idAustria               -1.8276863  0.1503782 -12.1539 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.5931948  0.1052507 -15.1371 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.8096644  0.0939543  -8.6176 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idDenmark               -0.8726551  0.2311497  -3.7753 0.0001757 ***
## idFinland               -1.0773073  0.2263579  -4.7593 2.435e-06 ***
## idFrance                -2.1146412  0.2181673  -9.6927 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idGermany               -0.2899872  0.2601545  -1.1147 0.2654354    
## idGreece                -1.0873572  0.0985816 -11.0300 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -1.4954285  0.2718940  -5.5000 5.619e-08 ***
## idItaly                 -1.0275731  0.2094828  -4.9053 1.202e-06 ***
## idJapan                 -0.4210228  0.3425277  -1.2292 0.2194904    
## idLuxembourg            -1.8755699  0.7171513  -2.6153 0.0091382 ** 
## idNetherlands           -1.0331926  0.0456885 -22.6138 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -2.5614266  0.2801085  -9.1444 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.7770059  0.1040985 -17.0704 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -1.2908996  0.1755218  -7.3546 6.290e-13 ***
## idSweden                -2.3416168  0.1346523 -17.3901 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -3.4995235  0.2015002 -17.3673 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -0.7202494  0.2051021  -3.5117 0.0004787 ***
## idUnitedStates           0.6884020  0.4730022   1.4554 0.1460830    
## time1990                -0.6219783  8.0494775  -0.0773 0.9384349    
## time1991                -0.5628411  8.0499994  -0.0699 0.9442820    
## time1992                -0.5703007  8.0502255  -0.0708 0.9435464    
## time1993                -0.6153790  8.0506896  -0.0764 0.9390960    
## time1994                -0.6017420  8.0501432  -0.0747 0.9404391    
## time1995                -0.5746055  8.0481494  -0.0714 0.9431063    
## time1996                -0.5394942  8.0477355  -0.0670 0.9465747    
## time1997                -0.5387773  8.0467904  -0.0670 0.9466393    
## time1998                -0.5064552  8.0458672  -0.0629 0.9498304    
## time1999                -0.5044479  8.0448190  -0.0627 0.9500225    
## time2000                -0.5075069  8.0435125  -0.0631 0.9497117    
## time2001                -0.4749069  8.0432520  -0.0590 0.9529365    
## time2002                -0.4498697  8.0429635  -0.0559 0.9554135    
## time2003                -0.4148057  8.0429658  -0.0516 0.9588855    
## time2004                -0.4010065  8.0422088  -0.0499 0.9602483    
## time2005                -0.4061281  8.0418393  -0.0505 0.9597392    
## time2006                -0.3982400  8.0412086  -0.0495 0.9605174    
## time2007                -0.4255755  8.0406749  -0.0529 0.9578070    
## time2008                -0.4236140  8.0390072  -0.0527 0.9579925    
## time2009                -0.4874666  8.0415055  -0.0606 0.9516829    
## time2010                -0.4647350  8.0410344  -0.0578 0.9539308    
## time2011                -0.5259081  8.0408910  -0.0654 0.9478739    
## time2012                -0.5590951  8.0415325  -0.0695 0.9445941    
## time2013                -0.6100276  8.0408494  -0.0759 0.9395509    
## time2014                -0.7080209  8.0407237  -0.0881 0.9298627    
## time2015                -0.7071385  8.0401512  -0.0880 0.9299450    
## time2016                -0.6915776  8.0398392  -0.0860 0.9314800    
## time2017                -0.6961401  8.0393004  -0.0866 0.9310245    
## time2018                -0.7595803  8.0388472  -0.0945 0.9247524    
## time2019                -0.8556516  8.0385954  -0.1064 0.9152664    
## time2020                -0.9703199  8.0417397  -0.1207 0.9040003    
## time2021                -0.9267863  8.0395364  -0.1153 0.9082628    
## iis414                  -0.8174623  0.1261448  -6.4804 1.905e-10 ***
## iis415                  -1.8998718  0.1257016 -15.1141 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.7981762  0.1253241 -14.3482 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.5370301  0.1250516 -12.2912 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0008966  0.1249291  -8.0117 5.882e-15 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.4138041  0.0488661  -8.4681 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.5725184  0.0583228  -9.8164 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.5651817  0.0556683 -10.1527 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.6066940  0.0710674  -8.5369 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.4518733  0.0809088  -5.5850 3.542e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.8623351  0.0864423  -9.9758 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.2648696  0.0495589   5.3445 1.288e-07 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          0.4767291  0.0528362   9.0228 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.3975339  0.0567393   7.0063 6.573e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   206.583  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  54.898  1  1.27e-13 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11719
## R-squared          0.99624
## Log-lik.(n=672)  522.21464

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 16:54:04 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -1.113510  0.667183  -1.6690 0.0956445 .  
## lpop                    -0.617491  0.233646  -2.6428 0.0084358 ** 
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.025140  0.013125   1.9155 0.0559066 .  
## EU_ETS_13               -0.239090  0.027876  -8.5771 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idAustria               -2.528646  0.144048 -17.5542 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.999822  0.101557 -19.6917 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.091816  0.110720  -0.8293 0.4072867    
## idDenmark               -2.073939  0.223555  -9.2771 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.267343  0.217993 -10.4010 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -0.657713  0.226860  -2.8992 0.0038779 ** 
## idGermany                1.400466  0.267152   5.2422 2.201e-07 ***
## idGreece                -1.331687  0.098379 -13.5364 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.974693  0.263442 -11.2917 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.381339  0.218917   1.7419 0.0820328 .  
## idJapan                  1.846852  0.343315   5.3795 1.072e-07 ***
## idLuxembourg            -6.178908  0.716658  -8.6218 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.016369  0.054426 -18.6743 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.118936  0.273038 -15.0856 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.068403  0.103026 -20.0765 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.104656  0.187591  -0.5579 0.5771260    
## idSweden                -2.941661  0.129351 -22.7417 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.485658  0.194315 -23.0845 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.650550  0.213525   3.0467 0.0024152 ** 
## idUnitedStates           3.470322  0.476478   7.2833 1.029e-12 ***
## time1990                33.762515  9.697775   3.4815 0.0005349 ***
## time1991                33.830612  9.698317   3.4883 0.0005217 ***
## time1992                33.829702  9.698516   3.4881 0.0005220 ***
## time1993                33.791625  9.699013   3.4840 0.0005299 ***
## time1994                33.805574  9.698284   3.4857 0.0005266 ***
## time1995                33.840516  9.697186   3.4897 0.0005190 ***
## time1996                33.876776  9.696622   3.4937 0.0005115 ***
## time1997                33.858984  9.694169   3.4927 0.0005133 ***
## time1998                33.875954  9.693107   3.4948 0.0005093 ***
## time1999                33.874711  9.691779   3.4952 0.0005087 ***
## time2000                33.867778  9.690128   3.4951 0.0005089 ***
## time2001                33.903016  9.689745   3.4989 0.0005019 ***
## time2002                33.928585  9.689058   3.5017 0.0004966 ***
## time2003                33.968734  9.688983   3.5059 0.0004890 ***
## time2004                33.986902  9.687917   3.5082 0.0004850 ***
## time2005                33.984960  9.687387   3.5082 0.0004850 ***
## time2006                33.994412  9.686535   3.5095 0.0004827 ***
## time2007                33.968981  9.685802   3.5071 0.0004869 ***
## time2008                33.923920  9.686476   3.5022 0.0004958 ***
## time2009                33.879735  9.689441   3.4966 0.0005061 ***
## time2010                33.904944  9.688793   3.4994 0.0005009 ***
## time2011                33.847375  9.688559   3.4935 0.0005118 ***
## time2012                33.844031  9.689008   3.4930 0.0005127 ***
## time2013                33.973593  9.689853   3.5061 0.0004887 ***
## time2014                33.878690  9.689628   3.4964 0.0005064 ***
## time2015                33.853960  9.688923   3.4941 0.0005107 ***
## time2016                33.868746  9.688514   3.4958 0.0005076 ***
## time2017                33.893954  9.687745   3.4986 0.0005023 ***
## time2018                33.832669  9.687121   3.4925 0.0005136 ***
## time2019                33.739496  9.686747   3.4831 0.0005318 ***
## time2020                33.645883  9.690522   3.4720 0.0005537 ***
## time2021                33.679084  9.687802   3.4764 0.0005448 ***
## iis414                  -0.967837  0.131892  -7.3381 7.072e-13 ***
## iis415                  -2.025407  0.131085 -15.4511 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.911360  0.130363 -14.6618 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.636312  0.129792 -12.6072 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.090673  0.129541  -8.4195 2.787e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2013  -0.218082  0.059413  -3.6706 0.0002636 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.477981  0.048135  -9.9300 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -0.578254  0.065310  -8.8540 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.551708  0.057808  -9.5438 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.762774  0.103579  -7.3642 5.911e-13 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.379659  0.100933   3.7615 0.0001855 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.320619  0.084032  -3.8154 0.0001500 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.768520  0.088892  -8.6456 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.271193  0.051145   5.3024 1.609e-07 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      0.257699  0.054015   4.7709 2.306e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.516531  0.059203   8.7248 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   215.60  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  66.76  1 3.331e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.12030
## R-squared          0.99605
## Log-lik.(n=672)  505.59139
ETS (pairs)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 17:25:49 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -1.784548  0.695748  -2.5649 0.0105620 *  
## lpop                     0.382857  0.237973   1.6088 0.1081812    
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.035681  0.013637   2.6166 0.0091058 ** 
## EU_ETS_05               -0.066486  0.037340  -1.7806 0.0754901 .  
## EU_ETS_08               -0.047668  0.037178  -1.2822 0.2002834    
## idAustria               -1.921105  0.150791 -12.7402 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.627142  0.105076 -15.4854 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.712542  0.095379  -7.4706 2.838e-13 ***
## idDenmark               -1.087054  0.233772  -4.6501 4.086e-06 ***
## idFinland               -1.266685  0.228178  -5.5513 4.264e-08 ***
## idFrance                -1.910376  0.222497  -8.5861 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idGermany               -0.090113  0.264413  -0.3408 0.7333716    
## idGreece                -1.047610  0.098805 -10.6028 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -1.757074  0.275040  -6.3884 3.367e-10 ***
## idItaly                 -0.805284  0.214264  -3.7584 0.0001878 ***
## idJapan                 -0.185566  0.346265  -0.5359 0.5922226    
## idLuxembourg            -2.900156  0.738636  -3.9264 9.626e-05 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.009423  0.045727 -22.0751 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -2.859400  0.284291 -10.0580 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.746506  0.104130 -16.7724 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -1.040473  0.181794  -5.7234 1.652e-08 ***
## idSweden                -2.424967  0.134933 -17.9716 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -3.720738  0.205220 -18.1305 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -0.556709  0.208735  -2.6671 0.0078586 ** 
## idUnitedStates           0.842751  0.477341   1.7655 0.0779870 .  
## time1990                27.653721 10.030878   2.7569 0.0060138 ** 
## time1991                27.714359 10.031411   2.7628 0.0059076 ** 
## time1992                27.707411 10.031594   2.7620 0.0059208 ** 
## time1993                27.663736 10.032084   2.7575 0.0060017 ** 
## time1994                27.675088 10.031360   2.7589 0.0059776 ** 
## time1995                27.708466 10.030256   2.7625 0.0059124 ** 
## time1996                27.741794 10.029691   2.7660 0.0058505 ** 
## time1997                27.726731 10.027251   2.7651 0.0058652 ** 
## time1998                27.755447 10.026077   2.7683 0.0058088 ** 
## time1999                27.753384 10.024751   2.7685 0.0058060 ** 
## time2000                27.745287 10.023095   2.7681 0.0058122 ** 
## time2001                27.776652 10.022705   2.7714 0.0057554 ** 
## time2002                27.797738 10.022046   2.7737 0.0057157 ** 
## time2003                27.832479 10.021960   2.7771 0.0056554 ** 
## time2004                27.842762 10.020936   2.7785 0.0056330 ** 
## time2005                27.893782 10.022851   2.7830 0.0055554 ** 
## time2006                27.898996 10.021990   2.7838 0.0055426 ** 
## time2007                27.869341 10.021251   2.7810 0.0055892 ** 
## time2008                27.850293 10.020953   2.7792 0.0056202 ** 
## time2009                27.795267 10.023905   2.7729 0.0057289 ** 
## time2010                27.815978 10.023238   2.7751 0.0056899 ** 
## time2011                27.754050 10.022984   2.7690 0.0057963 ** 
## time2012                27.724113 10.023793   2.7658 0.0058529 ** 
## time2013                27.673250 10.023170   2.7609 0.0059403 ** 
## time2014                27.574463 10.022932   2.7511 0.0061185 ** 
## time2015                27.573128 10.022148   2.7512 0.0061170 ** 
## time2016                27.587387 10.021740   2.7528 0.0060887 ** 
## time2017                27.580515 10.020988   2.7523 0.0060975 ** 
## time2018                27.515111 10.020350   2.7459 0.0062153 ** 
## time2019                27.417833 10.019965   2.7363 0.0063973 ** 
## time2020                27.314415 10.023747   2.7250 0.0066186 ** 
## time2021                27.349732 10.021018   2.7292 0.0065346 ** 
## iis414                  -0.937226  0.126649  -7.4002 4.623e-13 ***
## iis415                  -2.008651  0.125827 -15.9635 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.894846  0.125081 -15.1489 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.621556  0.124493 -13.0252 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.079233  0.124226  -8.6876 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2005  -0.217142  0.055182  -3.9350 9.294e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.393617  0.048282  -8.1525 2.093e-15 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.572625  0.057383  -9.9789 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.593833  0.055155 -10.7666 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.781941  0.099218  -7.8811 1.538e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.338067  0.097330   3.4734 0.0005510 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.444351  0.080244  -5.5375 4.597e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.826499  0.085261  -9.6937 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.257314  0.048730   5.2804 1.806e-07 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          0.435684  0.052678   8.2707 8.640e-16 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.443567  0.057279   7.7440 4.128e-14 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   195.95  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  61.04  1 5.551e-15 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11517
## R-squared          0.99638
## Log-lik.(n=672)  535.41279

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 18:26:05 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -1.663594  0.746954  -2.2272 0.0263060 *  
## lpop                    -0.469238  0.231661  -2.0255 0.0432542 *  
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.035839  0.014591   2.4563 0.0143216 *  
## EU_ETS_05               -0.120483  0.028215  -4.2701 2.271e-05 ***
## EU_ETS_13               -0.147692  0.030375  -4.8623 1.484e-06 ***
## idAustria               -2.513471  0.147568 -17.0326 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.025570  0.104067 -19.4640 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.360653  0.093137  -3.8723 0.0001197 ***
## idDenmark               -2.003536  0.227244  -8.8167 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.179890  0.221451  -9.8437 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.013730  0.214799  -4.7194 2.946e-06 ***
## idGermany                0.986050  0.256036   3.8512 0.0001302 ***
## idGreece                -1.349854  0.101020 -13.3623 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.854035  0.266236 -10.7199 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.046564  0.206632   0.2253 0.8217849    
## idJapan                  1.307338  0.330281   3.9583 8.454e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg            -5.749474  0.711101  -8.0853 3.436e-15 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.118457  0.047812 -23.3929 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.987895  0.274892 -14.5071 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.079331  0.105953 -19.6251 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.369251  0.175780  -2.1006 0.0360891 *  
## idSweden                -2.947348  0.132344 -22.2703 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.509646  0.198963 -22.6658 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.292823  0.201537   1.4529 0.1467615    
## idUnitedStates           2.792098  0.468093   5.9648 4.185e-09 ***
## time1990                38.467668 10.507738   3.6609 0.0002735 ***
## time1991                38.534260 10.508152   3.6671 0.0002671 ***
## time1992                38.531975 10.508226   3.6668 0.0002674 ***
## time1993                38.492870 10.508630   3.6630 0.0002713 ***
## time1994                38.505237 10.507842   3.6644 0.0002698 ***
## time1995                38.538612 10.506673   3.6680 0.0002662 ***
## time1996                38.573418 10.506040   3.6715 0.0002626 ***
## time1997                38.556866 10.503480   3.6709 0.0002633 ***
## time1998                38.585118 10.502251   3.6740 0.0002602 ***
## time1999                38.582184 10.500873   3.6742 0.0002600 ***
## time2000                38.573207 10.499141   3.6739 0.0002602 ***
## time2001                38.606983 10.498667   3.6773 0.0002569 ***
## time2002                38.630332 10.497937   3.6798 0.0002544 ***
## time2003                38.681509 10.499298   3.6842 0.0002502 ***
## time2004                38.696870 10.498155   3.6861 0.0002484 ***
## time2005                38.779157 10.496772   3.6944 0.0002406 ***
## time2006                38.786550 10.495806   3.6954 0.0002396 ***
## time2007                38.759160 10.494967   3.6931 0.0002417 ***
## time2008                38.712732 10.495484   3.6885 0.0002461 ***
## time2009                38.668736 10.498327   3.6833 0.0002510 ***
## time2010                38.692166 10.497546   3.6858 0.0002486 ***
## time2011                38.633308 10.497192   3.6803 0.0002539 ***
## time2012                38.628990 10.497515   3.6798 0.0002544 ***
## time2013                38.682522 10.494650   3.6859 0.0002485 ***
## time2014                38.586147 10.494328   3.6769 0.0002573 ***
## time2015                38.559612 10.493521   3.6746 0.0002595 ***
## time2016                38.573671 10.493099   3.6761 0.0002581 ***
## time2017                38.597252 10.492169   3.6787 0.0002555 ***
## time2018                38.534249 10.491430   3.6729 0.0002612 ***
## time2019                38.439605 10.490953   3.6641 0.0002702 ***
## time2020                38.347110 10.494686   3.6540 0.0002808 ***
## time2021                38.378105 10.491903   3.6579 0.0002767 ***
## iis414                  -0.977207  0.132808  -7.3580 6.168e-13 ***
## iis415                  -2.045879  0.131962 -15.5035 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.929802  0.131194 -14.7095 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.652808  0.130608 -12.6547 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.106649  0.130356  -8.4894 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2003  -0.263832  0.058387  -4.5187 7.498e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.459535  0.048615  -9.4526 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -0.584692  0.065744  -8.8934 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.565820  0.058476  -9.6762 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.761370  0.104188  -7.3077 8.708e-13 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.387600  0.101836   3.8061 0.0001557 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.337188  0.084385  -3.9958 7.249e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.774949  0.089345  -8.6737 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.269170  0.051447   5.2320 2.321e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.458579  0.060200   7.6175 1.012e-13 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   219.298  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  65.519  1 5.551e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.12098
## R-squared          0.99600
## Log-lik.(n=672)  501.84701

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 18:48:03 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                  0.657279  0.588182   1.1175 0.2642372    
## lpop                    -0.180781  0.229765  -0.7868 0.4317041    
## lgdp_wb_sq              -0.010429  0.011484  -0.9082 0.3641384    
## EU_ETS_08               -0.106275  0.031647  -3.3581 0.0008342 ***
## EU_ETS_13               -0.134965  0.034741  -3.8849 0.0001137 ***
## idAustria               -2.477422  0.147705 -16.7728 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.038380  0.103935 -19.6120 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.436301  0.092989  -4.6920 3.352e-06 ***
## idDenmark               -1.858075  0.227061  -8.1832 1.651e-15 ***
## idFinland               -2.066894  0.221565  -9.3286 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.152759  0.212786  -5.4175 8.752e-08 ***
## idGermany                0.876439  0.253369   3.4591 0.0005802 ***
## idGreece                -1.445223  0.099490 -14.5263 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.674738  0.266202 -10.0478 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -0.121249  0.204741  -0.5922 0.5539341    
## idJapan                  1.206896  0.327980   3.6798 0.0002544 ***
## idLuxembourg            -4.849081  0.704563  -6.8824 1.481e-11 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.162428  0.047344 -24.5530 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.770005  0.274443 -13.7369 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.167327  0.104665 -20.7073 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.597173  0.173312  -3.4457 0.0006093 ***
## idSweden                -2.914139  0.132574 -21.9812 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.335927  0.198222 -21.8741 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.199849  0.199296   1.0028 0.3163724    
## idUnitedStates           2.838117  0.462075   6.1421 1.480e-09 ***
## time1990                 4.797540  8.442343   0.5683 0.5700627    
## time1991                 4.863072  8.442833   0.5760 0.5648304    
## time1992                 4.860781  8.443023   0.5757 0.5650225    
## time1993                 4.820538  8.443467   0.5709 0.5682675    
## time1994                 4.836015  8.442874   0.5728 0.5669991    
## time1995                 4.862574  8.440777   0.5761 0.5647756    
## time1996                 4.899898  8.440320   0.5805 0.5617713    
## time1997                 4.901994  8.439307   0.5809 0.5615572    
## time1998                 4.934826  8.438328   0.5848 0.5588941    
## time1999                 4.937013  8.437221   0.5851 0.5586683    
## time2000                 4.934376  8.435838   0.5849 0.5588139    
## time2001                 4.970085  8.435534   0.5892 0.5559586    
## time2002                 4.998298  8.435202   0.5926 0.5537033    
## time2003                 5.037877  8.435162   0.5972 0.5505669    
## time2004                 5.055480  8.434329   0.5994 0.5491362    
## time2005                 5.054295  8.433902   0.5993 0.5492095    
## time2006                 5.065437  8.433206   0.6007 0.5482967    
## time2007                 5.041360  8.432612   0.5978 0.5501710    
## time2008                 5.069285  8.430396   0.6013 0.5478596    
## time2009                 5.015530  8.432935   0.5948 0.5522307    
## time2010                 5.041909  8.432402   0.5979 0.5501176    
## time2011                 4.984420  8.432216   0.5911 0.5546644    
## time2012                 4.979097  8.432610   0.5905 0.5551056    
## time2013                 5.024137  8.431285   0.5959 0.5514712    
## time2014                 4.929513  8.431116   0.5847 0.5589813    
## time2015                 4.932687  8.430485   0.5851 0.5586989    
## time2016                 4.948312  8.430150   0.5870 0.5574386    
## time2017                 4.947366  8.429547   0.5869 0.5574857    
## time2018                 4.887212  8.429038   0.5798 0.5622620    
## time2019                 4.794483  8.428740   0.5688 0.5696867    
## time2020                 4.689159  8.431969   0.5561 0.5783377    
## time2021                 4.730063  8.429669   0.5611 0.5749240    
## iis414                  -0.842595  0.132710  -6.3491 4.267e-10 ***
## iis415                  -1.924440  0.132245 -14.5520 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.822947  0.131847 -13.8262 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.560470  0.131564 -11.8609 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.021483  0.131444  -7.7713 3.373e-14 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.431759  0.051508  -8.3823 3.677e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.557699  0.061749  -9.0317 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.530401  0.058998  -8.9901 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.557856  0.074526  -7.4854 2.546e-13 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.349723  0.085357  -4.0972 4.755e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.806778  0.090842  -8.8811 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.272218  0.052443   5.1908 2.868e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.406021  0.059710   6.7999 2.528e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   231.634  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  69.414  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.12333
## R-squared          0.99583
## Log-lik.(n=672)  487.91665

2000-2021

AR = 0

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:10:56 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -4.420012  1.017602  -4.3436 1.773e-05 ***
## lpop                    -0.796670  0.248428  -3.2068 0.0014483 ** 
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.091505  0.019051   4.8032 2.200e-06 ***
## idAustria               -2.659562  0.180054 -14.7709 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.166670  0.130220 -16.6385 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.284609  0.108038  -2.6343 0.0087526 ** 
## idDenmark               -2.577050  0.264599  -9.7395 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.344915  0.263860  -8.8870 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.014886  0.240284  -4.2237 2.969e-05 ***
## idGermany                0.872007  0.287761   3.0303 0.0025993 ** 
## idGreece                -1.274184  0.130909  -9.7334 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.104354  0.306774 -10.1193 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.094753  0.225716   0.4198 0.6748621    
## idJapan                  1.186265  0.391015   3.0338 0.0025700 ** 
## idLuxembourg            -8.152393  0.767263 -10.6253 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.171972  0.060067 -19.5111 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.564029  0.294115 -12.1178 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.000005  0.137318 -14.5648 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.204918  0.185861  -1.1025 0.2708834    
## idSweden                -3.173976  0.163315 -19.4347 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.715056  0.221621 -21.2753 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.132349  0.228045   0.5804 0.5619917    
## idUnitedStates           2.170784  0.596653   3.6383 0.0003099 ***
## time2000                77.872023 13.431401   5.7978 1.352e-08 ***
## time2001                77.902597 13.431188   5.8001 1.334e-08 ***
## time2002                77.924607 13.430246   5.8022 1.319e-08 ***
## time2003                77.961288 13.430119   5.8050 1.299e-08 ***
## time2004                77.949197 13.429728   5.8042 1.305e-08 ***
## time2005                77.941303 13.429304   5.8038 1.307e-08 ***
## time2006                77.942839 13.428872   5.8041 1.305e-08 ***
## time2007                77.910157 13.428561   5.8018 1.322e-08 ***
## time2008                77.865360 13.428546   5.7985 1.346e-08 ***
## time2009                77.834289 13.429801   5.7956 1.368e-08 ***
## time2010                77.853279 13.429157   5.7973 1.355e-08 ***
## time2011                77.770043 13.428846   5.7913 1.401e-08 ***
## time2012                77.766870 13.428669   5.7911 1.402e-08 ***
## time2013                77.698474 13.428513   5.7861 1.442e-08 ***
## time2014                77.599081 13.428197   5.7788 1.500e-08 ***
## time2015                77.582754 13.427963   5.7777 1.509e-08 ***
## time2016                77.569445 13.426797   5.7772 1.513e-08 ***
## time2017                77.548795 13.426023   5.7760 1.524e-08 ***
## time2018                77.481396 13.425540   5.7712 1.564e-08 ***
## time2019                77.383652 13.425225   5.7640 1.627e-08 ***
## time2020                77.308168 13.427335   5.7575 1.686e-08 ***
## time2021                77.325316 13.425878   5.7594 1.669e-08 ***
## iis267                  -0.554344  0.145107  -3.8202 0.0001542 ***
## fesisAustria.2017        0.237616  0.052911   4.4909 9.258e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    0.363134  0.050673   7.1663 3.659e-12 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.568999  0.047750 -11.9162 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.499293  0.050552  -9.8769 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.096907  0.108476  10.1120 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.921836  0.062350 -14.7849 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.267224  0.045986   5.8110 1.257e-08 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.229474  0.050204   4.5708 6.457e-06 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.467562  0.046090  10.1445 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015      0.250454  0.052567   4.7645 2.641e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   77.288  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 12.719  1  0.000362 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10011
## R-squared          0.99733
## Log-lik.(n=462)  435.71755

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:11:04 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -3.684972  1.086834  -3.3906 0.0007653 ***
## lpop                    -0.579697  0.266417  -2.1759 0.0301347 *  
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.076949  0.020357   3.7799 0.0001802 ***
## idAustria               -2.480751  0.191403 -12.9609 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.090188  0.138679 -15.0721 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.381284  0.115521  -3.3006 0.0010496 ** 
## idDenmark               -2.354983  0.282664  -8.3314 1.222e-15 ***
## idFinland               -2.136875  0.281720  -7.5851 2.259e-13 ***
## idFrance                -1.207773  0.256715  -4.7047 3.483e-06 ***
## idGermany                0.658069  0.307136   2.1426 0.0327350 *  
## idGreece                -1.221574  0.138879  -8.7960 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.854506  0.327835  -8.7071 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -0.097289  0.241412  -0.4030 0.6871591    
## idJapan                  0.917198  0.417360   2.1976 0.0285363 *  
## idLuxembourg            -7.396165  0.821954  -8.9983 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.062030  0.062442 -17.0084 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.320709  0.314027 -10.5746 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.939277  0.145705 -13.3096 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.377651  0.199230  -1.8956 0.0587238 .  
## idSweden                -3.001861  0.171962 -17.4565 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.535464  0.237027 -19.1348 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -0.029173  0.243444  -0.1198 0.9046744    
## idUnitedStates           1.881426  0.634984   2.9629 0.0032250 ** 
## time2000                65.026001 14.387493   4.5196 8.122e-06 ***
## time2001                65.056319 14.387267   4.5218 8.043e-06 ***
## time2002                65.077057 14.386319   4.5235 7.980e-06 ***
## time2003                65.113048 14.386194   4.5261 7.889e-06 ***
## time2004                65.101024 14.385773   4.5254 7.914e-06 ***
## time2005                65.092913 14.385324   4.5250 7.929e-06 ***
## time2006                65.094501 14.384861   4.5252 7.920e-06 ***
## time2007                65.061750 14.384527   4.5230 7.998e-06 ***
## time2008                65.015419 14.384535   4.5198 8.115e-06 ***
## time2009                64.980536 14.385929   4.5170 8.220e-06 ***
## time2010                64.999537 14.385245   4.5185 8.163e-06 ***
## time2011                64.916789 14.384935   4.5128 8.373e-06 ***
## time2012                64.912605 14.384764   4.5126 8.382e-06 ***
## time2013                64.843443 14.384611   4.5078 8.563e-06 ***
## time2014                64.756458 14.384278   4.5019 8.795e-06 ***
## time2015                64.791592 14.382853   4.5048 8.682e-06 ***
## time2016                64.748648 14.382955   4.5018 8.800e-06 ***
## time2017                64.739334 14.382336   4.5013 8.818e-06 ***
## time2018                64.671910 14.381822   4.4968 8.998e-06 ***
## time2019                64.573925 14.381489   4.4901 9.273e-06 ***
## time2020                64.493918 14.383800   4.4838 9.537e-06 ***
## time2021                64.513569 14.382211   4.4857 9.458e-06 ***
## iis267                  -0.551302  0.154759  -3.5623 0.0004109 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    0.317445  0.053665   5.9153 7.004e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.615926  0.050671 -12.1555 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.533781  0.053639  -9.9514 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.108098  0.115688   9.5783 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -0.979336  0.064475 -15.1895 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.451675  0.049074   9.2039 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015      0.195883  0.055801   3.5104 0.0004972 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   86.701  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 31.611  1 1.884e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10677
## R-squared          0.99694
## Log-lik.(n=462)  404.46662
AR = 1

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:19:39 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 441 
## Sample: 1 to 441 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                            coef  std.error  t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                    0.753421   0.025656 29.3657 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp_wb               12.953857   4.467012  2.8999 0.0039458 ** 
## lpop                 -27.717591   7.492620 -3.6993 0.0002475 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq             0.164275   0.035846  4.5828 6.200e-06 ***
## idAustria             -0.635206   0.070782 -8.9742 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium             -0.578311   0.063158 -9.1566 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada              -0.165216   0.029177 -5.6626 2.911e-08 ***
## idDenmark             -0.664734   0.067776 -9.8077 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland             -0.429493   0.068668 -6.2547 1.055e-09 ***
## idFrance              -0.370414   0.044940 -8.2425 2.648e-15 ***
## idGermany              0.109218   0.028356  3.8517 0.0001373 ***
## idGreece              -0.437980   0.048990 -8.9402 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland             -0.692769   0.074416 -9.3094 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly               -0.120562   0.027534 -4.3786 1.539e-05 ***
## idJapan                0.170809   0.037553  4.5485 7.239e-06 ***
## idLuxembourg          -1.281330   0.140525 -9.1182 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands         -0.307144   0.040209 -7.6387 1.739e-13 ***
## idNewZealand          -0.825602   0.088841 -9.2931 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal            -0.564649   0.066618 -8.4760 4.953e-16 ***
## idSpain               -0.238518   0.033251 -7.1732 3.756e-12 ***
## idSweden              -0.757331   0.082584 -9.1704 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland         -1.041851   0.112055 -9.2976 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom       -0.107629   0.026125 -4.1198 4.641e-05 ***
## idUnitedStates         0.576284   0.066828  8.6233 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2001              -5.873505   4.304572 -1.3645 0.1732092    
## time2002              -6.232649   4.354978 -1.4312 0.1531928    
## time2003              -6.361678   4.369569 -1.4559 0.1462296    
## time2004              -6.806547   4.434205 -1.5350 0.1255986    
## time2005              -7.219022   4.503965 -1.6028 0.1097913    
## time2006              -7.555272   4.546714 -1.6617 0.0973828 .  
## time2007              -7.733643   4.569226 -1.6925 0.0913460 .  
## time2008              -7.687228   4.539666 -1.6933 0.0911942 .  
## time2009              -6.734519   4.339379 -1.5520 0.1214904    
## time2010              -7.018853   4.393703 -1.5975 0.1109749    
## time2011              -7.528061   4.459589 -1.6881 0.0922050 .  
## time2012              -7.577000   4.461701 -1.6982 0.0902679 .  
## time2013              -7.841645   4.489512 -1.7467 0.0814899 .  
## time2014              -8.236035   4.543932 -1.8125 0.0706783 .  
## time2015              -8.119958   4.522178 -1.7956 0.0733405 .  
## time2016              -8.038917   4.489129 -1.7908 0.0741145 .  
## time2017              -8.354082   4.537963 -1.8409 0.0663968 .  
## time2018              -8.545789   4.546872 -1.8795 0.0609291 .  
## iis90                  0.389817   0.086092  4.5279 7.942e-06 ***
## iis103                -0.338686   0.086569 -3.9123 0.0001080 ***
## iis110                -0.327609   0.086790 -3.7747 0.0001853 ***
## iis111                 0.417637   0.086794  4.8118 2.147e-06 ***
## iis254                 0.718071   0.090346  7.9481 2.094e-14 ***
## iis265                -0.341108   0.087345 -3.9053 0.0001110 ***
## iis268                -0.402202   0.091060 -4.4169 1.301e-05 ***
## iis325                -0.344251   0.086391 -3.9848 8.071e-05 ***
## fesisFinland.2005     -0.149512   0.047348 -3.1577 0.0017147 ** 
## fesisJapan.2010        0.129627   0.038629  3.3557 0.0008700 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015  -0.330696   0.047988 -6.8912 2.254e-11 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018    -0.186212   0.046999 -3.9620 8.848e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                     Chi-sq df  p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    0.25637  1 0.612623    
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.98407  1 0.000919 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.08177
## R-squared          0.99821
## Log-lik.(n=441)  505.42429

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:20:15 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 441 
## Sample: 1 to 441 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                            coef  std.error  t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                    0.834028   0.030829 27.0533 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp_wb                9.436365   4.822309  1.9568 0.0510806 .  
## lpop                 -23.735693   8.121732 -2.9225 0.0036741 ** 
## lgdp_wb_sq             0.194809   0.039102  4.9820 9.465e-07 ***
## idAustria             -0.427439   0.084104 -5.0822 5.793e-07 ***
## idBelgium             -0.396412   0.074828 -5.2977 1.963e-07 ***
## idCanada              -0.119209   0.032694 -3.6462 0.0003021 ***
## idDenmark             -0.464168   0.080632 -5.7566 1.737e-08 ***
## idFinland             -0.265587   0.079343 -3.3473 0.0008951 ***
## idFrance              -0.253587   0.052495 -4.8307 1.957e-06 ***
## idGermany              0.068592   0.031634  2.1683 0.0307362 *  
## idGreece              -0.306056   0.057489 -5.3237 1.718e-07 ***
## idIreland             -0.472823   0.088519 -5.3415 1.568e-07 ***
## idItaly               -0.085963   0.030567 -2.8122 0.0051677 ** 
## idJapan                0.168326   0.040206  4.1865 3.502e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg          -0.902211   0.163977 -5.5021 6.800e-08 ***
## idNetherlands         -0.208796   0.046627 -4.4780 9.901e-06 ***
## idNewZealand          -0.557982   0.105998 -5.2641 2.329e-07 ***
## idPortugal            -0.427391   0.077402 -5.5217 6.130e-08 ***
## idSpain               -0.170492   0.037897 -4.4989 9.021e-06 ***
## idSweden              -0.510281   0.098423 -5.1846 3.480e-07 ***
## idSwitzerland         -0.698842   0.134050 -5.2133 3.012e-07 ***
## idUnitedKingdom       -0.086398   0.028726 -3.0076 0.0028031 ** 
## idUnitedStates         0.381869   0.079297  4.8157 2.101e-06 ***
## time2001              -1.367973   4.625018 -0.2958 0.7675576    
## time2002              -1.713017   4.680097 -0.3660 0.7145468    
## time2003              -1.845714   4.696090 -0.3930 0.6945100    
## time2004              -2.275744   4.766338 -0.4775 0.6333001    
## time2005              -2.667919   4.842183 -0.5510 0.5819658    
## time2006              -2.979387   4.888781 -0.6094 0.5425910    
## time2007              -3.179299   4.913359 -0.6471 0.5179648    
## time2008              -3.156116   4.881498 -0.6465 0.5183048    
## time2009              -2.298660   4.664449 -0.4928 0.6224277    
## time2010              -2.577690   4.723511 -0.5457 0.5855732    
## time2011              -3.055628   4.795182 -0.6372 0.5243488    
## time2012              -3.111605   4.797694 -0.6486 0.5170019    
## time2013              -3.392453   4.828051 -0.7027 0.4826890    
## time2014              -3.754056   4.887356 -0.7681 0.4428819    
## time2015              -3.645499   4.864016 -0.7495 0.4540166    
## time2016              -3.597921   4.828239 -0.7452 0.4566088    
## time2017              -3.906984   4.881472 -0.8004 0.4239824    
## time2018              -4.120604   4.891426 -0.8424 0.4000715    
## iis110                -0.350722   0.094851 -3.6976 0.0002487 ***
## iis111                 0.409181   0.094624  4.3243 1.945e-05 ***
## iis253                 0.301731   0.107027  2.8192 0.0050593 ** 
## iis254                 0.844546   0.100530  8.4010 8.287e-16 ***
## iis267                -0.252280   0.104158 -2.4221 0.0158852 *  
## iis268                -0.484338   0.101591 -4.7676 2.635e-06 ***
## fesisFinland.2005     -0.138902   0.051707 -2.6863 0.0075328 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2015  -0.158578   0.061342 -2.5851 0.0100955 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df p-value  
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   4.0489  1 0.04420 *
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 5.0086  1 0.02522 *
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.08929
## R-squared          0.99784
## Log-lik.(n=441)  464.65999
ETS (all phases)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 19:11:01 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -1.186247  1.221455  -0.9712 0.3320480    
## lpop                    -0.984751  0.269011  -3.6606 0.0002853 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.030389  0.022899   1.3271 0.1852346    
## EU_ETS_05               -0.029953  0.033842  -0.8851 0.3766370    
## EU_ETS_08               -0.022055  0.033795  -0.6526 0.5143762    
## EU_ETS_13               -0.100856  0.033307  -3.0281 0.0026204 ** 
## idAustria               -2.895259  0.203188 -14.2491 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.346224  0.145727 -16.1002 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.190803  0.116833  -1.6331 0.1032301    
## idDenmark               -2.888524  0.298340  -9.6820 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.659949  0.297860  -8.9302 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -0.616363  0.282300  -2.1834 0.0295898 *  
## idGermany                1.396664  0.341547   4.0892 5.234e-05 ***
## idGreece                -1.452894  0.142318 -10.2088 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.450348  0.344895 -10.0041 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.425114  0.261253   1.6272 0.1044798    
## idJapan                  1.857926  0.455644   4.0776 5.492e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg            -8.687154  0.849520 -10.2260 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.236109  0.063309 -19.5251 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.916332  0.342390 -11.4382 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.184935  0.149914 -14.5746 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.016321  0.207197  -0.0788 0.9372564    
## idSweden                -3.382884  0.183400 -18.4454 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.972768  0.249396 -19.9393 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.554044  0.271591   2.0400 0.0420076 *  
## idUnitedStates           3.510130  0.715280   4.9073 1.346e-06 ***
## time2000                38.318386 15.664908   2.4461 0.0148698 *  
## time2001                38.351402 15.664469   2.4483 0.0147817 *  
## time2002                38.375231 15.663353   2.4500 0.0147133 *  
## time2003                38.414346 15.662982   2.4526 0.0146108 *  
## time2004                38.405652 15.662298   2.4521 0.0146287 *  
## time2005                38.422628 15.658203   2.4538 0.0145598 *  
## time2006                38.427842 15.657453   2.4543 0.0145418 *  
## time2007                38.398414 15.656852   2.4525 0.0146131 *  
## time2008                38.371581 15.654691   2.4511 0.0146682 *  
## time2009                38.338010 15.655968   2.4488 0.0147625 *  
## time2010                38.360968 15.654998   2.4504 0.0146973 *  
## time2011                38.285735 15.653804   2.4458 0.0148841 *  
## time2012                38.284586 15.653419   2.4458 0.0148846 *  
## time2013                38.301490 15.643380   2.4484 0.0147772 *  
## time2014                38.204469 15.642882   2.4423 0.0150265 *  
## time2015                38.228952 15.641391   2.4441 0.0149529 *  
## time2016                38.199105 15.641027   2.4422 0.0150287 *  
## time2017                38.181887 15.639969   2.4413 0.0150671 *  
## time2018                38.101197 15.638789   2.4363 0.0152728 *  
## time2019                37.992197 15.637997   2.4295 0.0155599 *  
## time2020                37.910894 15.640353   2.4239 0.0157968 *  
## time2021                37.933988 15.638521   2.4257 0.0157215 *  
## iis267                  -0.546667  0.136750  -3.9976 7.621e-05 ***
## fesisAustria.2017        0.248888  0.050263   4.9517 1.087e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    0.351523  0.056652   6.2050 1.368e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.573362  0.045277 -12.6633 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.450580  0.049440  -9.1136 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.098020  0.102876  10.6733 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -0.535163  0.104132  -5.1393 4.322e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.441592  0.105713  -4.1773 3.625e-05 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.278052  0.043709   6.3614 5.473e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.252053  0.048447   5.2027 3.145e-07 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.363157  0.051762   7.0159 9.818e-12 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      0.221944  0.052431   4.2330 2.862e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2013    -0.234587  0.057319  -4.0927 5.160e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2019     0.294094  0.070025   4.1998 3.296e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   67.106  1 2.220e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 19.521  1 9.949e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09434
## R-squared          0.99767
## Log-lik.(n=462)  466.16585

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 19:11:01 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                  -0.925490   1.181114  -0.7836 0.4337493    
## lpop                     -1.834425   0.264173  -6.9440 1.529e-11 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq                0.027300   0.022150   1.2325 0.2184757    
## EU_ETS_05                -0.038955   0.037755  -1.0318 0.3027891    
## EU_ETS_08                -0.053276   0.037444  -1.4228 0.1555658    
## EU_ETS_13                -0.142859   0.031679  -4.5095 8.526e-06 ***
## idAustria                -3.557248   0.196777 -18.0776 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium                -2.803620   0.142440 -19.6829 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                  0.168917   0.115129   1.4672 0.1430991    
## idDenmark                -3.880850   0.287732 -13.4877 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland                -3.659709   0.286862 -12.7577 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                  0.288216   0.270866   1.0641 0.2879392    
## idGermany                 2.476384   0.327030   7.5723 2.516e-13 ***
## idGreece                 -1.843694   0.144714 -12.7403 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland                -4.609007   0.332139 -13.8767 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                   1.268086   0.251609   5.0399 7.041e-07 ***
## idJapan                   3.423520   0.426637   8.0244 1.119e-14 ***
## idLuxembourg            -11.600457   0.818763 -14.1683 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands            -1.383113   0.065886 -20.9925 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand             -5.146925   0.326210 -15.7779 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal               -2.607858   0.151723 -17.1883 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                   0.641678   0.202476   3.1692 0.0016452 ** 
## idSweden                 -3.974454   0.178063 -22.3205 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland            -5.786170   0.240935 -24.0154 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom           1.413401   0.259911   5.4380 9.347e-08 ***
## idUnitedStates            5.541749   0.687292   8.0632 8.522e-15 ***
## time2000                 47.743582  15.151080   3.1512 0.0017473 ** 
## time2001                 47.779739  15.150651   3.1536 0.0017329 ** 
## time2002                 47.805567  15.149567   3.1556 0.0017218 ** 
## time2003                 47.849155  15.149205   3.1585 0.0017049 ** 
## time2004                 47.843513  15.148537   3.1583 0.0017062 ** 
## time2005                 47.870824  15.144573   3.1609 0.0016912 ** 
## time2006                 47.879387  15.143842   3.1616 0.0016872 ** 
## time2007                 47.853336  15.143255   3.1600 0.0016962 ** 
## time2008                 47.855561  15.141596   3.1605 0.0016934 ** 
## time2009                 47.831610  15.142837   3.1587 0.0017039 ** 
## time2010                 47.858101  15.141896   3.1606 0.0016928 ** 
## time2011                 47.803655  15.141174   3.1572 0.0017125 ** 
## time2012                 47.807379  15.140802   3.1575 0.0017106 ** 
## time2013                 47.847387  15.136567   3.1610 0.0016905 ** 
## time2014                 47.754079  15.136090   3.1550 0.0017252 ** 
## time2015                 47.793566  15.134328   3.1580 0.0017081 ** 
## time2016                 47.742252  15.134687   3.1545 0.0017280 ** 
## time2017                 47.727954  15.133683   3.1538 0.0017323 ** 
## time2018                 47.650827  15.132786   3.1488 0.0017609 ** 
## time2019                 47.559142  15.132242   3.1429 0.0017962 ** 
## time2020                 47.486878  15.134528   3.1377 0.0018279 ** 
## time2021                 47.507600  15.132748   3.1394 0.0018173 ** 
## iis267                   -0.550316   0.153139  -3.5936 0.0003664 ***
## fesisAustria.2017         0.262708   0.056102   4.6826 3.873e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018     0.345100   0.061850   5.5796 4.425e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015        -0.570364   0.050621 -11.2674 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016  -0.424996   0.054715  -7.7675 6.667e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002      1.144182   0.114538   9.9896 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015     -0.788676   0.064458 -12.2355 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014     0.277343   0.048942   5.6667 2.771e-08 ***
## fesisSweden.2016          0.289059   0.053801   5.3728 1.313e-07 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016       0.259256   0.057646   4.4974 9.004e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   86.648  1 < 2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 30.009  1 4.3e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10565
## R-squared          0.99704
## Log-lik.(n=462)  411.83634
ETS (individual)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_05"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:45:16 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -3.411674  1.152534  -2.9602 0.0032543 ** 
## lpop                    -0.631194  0.276110  -2.2860 0.0227646 *  
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.071865  0.021571   3.3315 0.0009425 ***
## EU_ETS_05               -0.021670  0.030267  -0.7159 0.4744321    
## idAustria               -2.517290  0.198200 -12.7007 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.113820  0.142634 -14.8199 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.356624  0.120613  -2.9568 0.0032895 ** 
## idDenmark               -2.412121  0.293877  -8.2079 2.983e-15 ***
## idFinland               -2.194517  0.293160  -7.4857 4.427e-13 ***
## idFrance                -1.126750  0.280693  -4.0142 7.099e-05 ***
## idGermany                0.756731  0.336802   2.2468 0.0251859 *  
## idGreece                -1.242173  0.141909  -8.7533 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.921444  0.341094  -8.5649 2.241e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -0.024378  0.262145  -0.0930 0.9259525    
## idJapan                  1.033162  0.447920   2.3066 0.0215787 *  
## idLuxembourg            -7.556099  0.852242  -8.8661 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.062853  0.062490 -17.0085 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.401810  0.334009 -10.1848 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.961739  0.149130 -13.1546 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.324034  0.212951  -1.5216 0.1288753    
## idSweden                -3.032678  0.177367 -17.0983 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.591353  0.249685 -18.3886 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.051927  0.268639   0.1933 0.8468220    
## idUnitedStates           2.077906  0.692098   3.0023 0.0028440 ** 
## time2000                62.211605 14.923126   4.1688 3.741e-05 ***
## time2001                62.242251 14.922788   4.1710 3.708e-05 ***
## time2002                62.263186 14.921800   4.1726 3.682e-05 ***
## time2003                62.299562 14.921537   4.1751 3.643e-05 ***
## time2004                62.287938 14.920984   4.1745 3.653e-05 ***
## time2005                62.295749 14.914710   4.1768 3.618e-05 ***
## time2006                62.297772 14.914102   4.1771 3.613e-05 ***
## time2007                62.265423 14.913633   4.1751 3.644e-05 ***
## time2008                62.219560 14.913470   4.1720 3.691e-05 ***
## time2009                62.184891 14.914738   4.1694 3.733e-05 ***
## time2010                62.204360 14.913906   4.1709 3.709e-05 ***
## time2011                62.122500 14.913282   4.1656 3.793e-05 ***
## time2012                62.118689 14.912981   4.1654 3.795e-05 ***
## time2013                62.049877 14.912705   4.1609 3.868e-05 ***
## time2014                61.963279 14.912242   4.1552 3.962e-05 ***
## time2015                61.998556 14.910813   4.1580 3.916e-05 ***
## time2016                61.955954 14.910787   4.1551 3.963e-05 ***
## time2017                61.947110 14.910018   4.1547 3.969e-05 ***
## time2018                61.880100 14.909370   4.1504 4.042e-05 ***
## time2019                61.782475 14.908917   4.1440 4.152e-05 ***
## time2020                61.702391 14.911177   4.1380 4.258e-05 ***
## time2021                61.722413 14.909506   4.1398 4.226e-05 ***
## iis267                  -0.550834  0.154853  -3.5571 0.0004189 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    0.314714  0.053832   5.8462 1.031e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.615964  0.050701 -12.1490 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.529320  0.054031  -9.7966 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.110822  0.115820   9.5909 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -0.976198  0.064662 -15.0970 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.441273  0.051208   8.6173 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015      0.197847  0.055901   3.5392 0.0004475 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   87.127  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 31.949  1 1.583e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10684
## R-squared          0.99695
## Log-lik.(n=462)  404.69117

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_08"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 16:22:07 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -3.275504  1.106127  -2.9612 0.0032440 ** 
## lpop                    -0.720159  0.268442  -2.6827 0.0076005 ** 
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.069028  0.020716   3.3320 0.0009411 ***
## EU_ETS_08               -0.036951  0.027211  -1.3579 0.1752343    
## idAustria               -2.608497  0.197532 -13.2055 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.179559  0.142497 -15.2954 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.304429  0.117633  -2.5880 0.0100007 *  
## idDenmark               -2.552499  0.291791  -8.7477 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.332168  0.291503  -8.0005 1.310e-14 ***
## idFrance                -0.999141  0.274732  -3.6368 0.0003116 ***
## idGermany                0.913445  0.330827   2.7611 0.0060221 ** 
## idGreece                -1.317503  0.141617  -9.3033 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.074787  0.338131  -9.0935 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.089522  0.255691   0.3501 0.7264318    
## idJapan                  1.230860  0.442963   2.7787 0.0057111 ** 
## idLuxembourg            -7.932082  0.837598  -9.4700 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.175000  0.062543 -18.7871 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.567944  0.331975 -10.7476 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.041883  0.148947 -13.7088 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.244834  0.205650  -1.1905 0.2345319    
## idSweden                -3.170723  0.179052 -17.7084 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.692648  0.245239 -19.1350 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.172015  0.263340   0.6532 0.5139938    
## idUnitedStates           2.398837  0.685753   3.4981 0.0005204 ***
## time2000                62.109941 14.218723   4.3682 1.593e-05 ***
## time2001                62.141480 14.218363   4.3705 1.576e-05 ***
## time2002                62.163057 14.217363   4.3723 1.564e-05 ***
## time2003                62.200369 14.217072   4.3750 1.545e-05 ***
## time2004                62.189919 14.216496   4.3745 1.549e-05 ***
## time2005                62.183331 14.215882   4.3742 1.551e-05 ***
## time2006                62.186604 14.215250   4.3746 1.548e-05 ***
## time2007                62.155464 14.214752   4.3726 1.562e-05 ***
## time2008                62.136785 14.209274   4.3730 1.560e-05 ***
## time2009                62.102069 14.210478   4.3702 1.579e-05 ***
## time2010                62.122538 14.209644   4.3719 1.567e-05 ***
## time2011                62.041403 14.208933   4.3664 1.605e-05 ***
## time2012                62.038114 14.208623   4.3662 1.606e-05 ***
## time2013                61.969965 14.208330   4.3615 1.640e-05 ***
## time2014                61.872054 14.207887   4.3548 1.689e-05 ***
## time2015                61.903588 14.206511   4.3574 1.669e-05 ***
## time2016                61.848624 14.206395   4.3536 1.697e-05 ***
## time2017                61.840900 14.205615   4.3533 1.700e-05 ***
## time2018                61.774892 14.204955   4.3488 1.733e-05 ***
## time2019                61.678137 14.204487   4.3422 1.784e-05 ***
## time2020                61.597581 14.206654   4.3358 1.834e-05 ***
## time2021                61.618836 14.205014   4.3378 1.818e-05 ***
## iis267                  -0.551077  0.146989  -3.7491 0.0002032 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    0.339090  0.051538   6.5794 1.460e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.587173  0.048310 -12.1542 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.495753  0.051738  -9.5821 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.116830  0.109910  10.1613 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -0.934007  0.062170 -15.0234 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.257084  0.046597   5.5172 6.147e-08 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.223038  0.051077   4.3667 1.603e-05 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.440663  0.050768   8.6799 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015      0.228505  0.053319   4.2856 2.279e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   73.176  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 27.465  1 1.599e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10141
## R-squared          0.99726
## Log-lik.(n=462)  429.76981

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 16:55:22 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                  -2.527861   1.163342  -2.1729 0.0303618 *  
## lpop                     -1.414154   0.257443  -5.4931 6.973e-08 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq                0.056653   0.021846   2.5933 0.0098492 ** 
## EU_ETS_13                -0.188698   0.028332  -6.6602 8.886e-11 ***
## idAustria                -3.268881   0.193472 -16.8959 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium                -2.619835   0.141383 -18.5300 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                 -0.089004   0.105626  -0.8426 0.3999290    
## idDenmark                -3.429135   0.281052 -12.2011 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland                -3.207418   0.280136 -11.4495 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                 -0.310428   0.250191  -1.2408 0.2154085    
## idGermany                 1.754265   0.302253   5.8040 1.304e-08 ***
## idGreece                 -1.694026   0.145465 -11.6456 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland                -4.079696   0.323931 -12.5943 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                   0.722655   0.233389   3.0964 0.0020947 ** 
## idJapan                   2.533414   0.399669   6.3388 6.155e-10 ***
## idLuxembourg            -10.305261   0.798860 -12.9000 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands            -1.367962   0.066902 -20.4474 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand             -4.595261   0.316324 -14.5271 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal               -2.443416   0.152211 -16.0529 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                   0.228883   0.190060   1.2043 0.2291867    
## idSweden                 -3.723417   0.175586 -21.2057 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland            -5.407951   0.235518 -22.9619 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom           0.824245   0.238554   3.4552 0.0006077 ***
## idUnitedStates            4.080908   0.641689   6.3596 5.441e-10 ***
## time2000                 62.618623  15.177212   4.1258 4.481e-05 ***
## time2001                 62.652655  15.176853   4.1282 4.438e-05 ***
## time2002                 62.676600  15.175768   4.1300 4.403e-05 ***
## time2003                 62.717503  15.175498   4.1328 4.353e-05 ***
## time2004                 62.709451  15.174906   4.1324 4.359e-05 ***
## time2005                 62.706069  15.174284   4.1324 4.360e-05 ***
## time2006                 62.711992  15.173636   4.1330 4.350e-05 ***
## time2007                 62.683472  15.173129   4.1312 4.382e-05 ***
## time2008                 62.643997  15.172992   4.1287 4.429e-05 ***
## time2009                 62.617011  15.174379   4.1265 4.469e-05 ***
## time2010                 62.640523  15.173520   4.1283 4.436e-05 ***
## time2011                 62.583421  15.172873   4.1247 4.503e-05 ***
## time2012                 62.584286  15.172592   4.1248 4.500e-05 ***
## time2013                 62.654477  15.166382   4.1311 4.383e-05 ***
## time2014                 62.558898  15.165979   4.1249 4.498e-05 ***
## time2015                 62.598111  15.164178   4.1280 4.441e-05 ***
## time2016                 62.559205  15.164220   4.1254 4.489e-05 ***
## time2017                 62.542530  15.163279   4.1246 4.504e-05 ***
## time2018                 62.464312  15.162410   4.1197 4.598e-05 ***
## time2019                 62.370270  15.161939   4.1136 4.716e-05 ***
## time2020                 62.296617  15.164346   4.1081 4.825e-05 ***
## time2021                 62.316108  15.162563   4.1099 4.790e-05 ***
## iis267                   -0.552519   0.157437  -3.5095 0.0004992 ***
## fesisAustria.2017         0.250845   0.057611   4.3541 1.692e-05 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018     0.313255   0.063146   4.9608 1.033e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015        -0.573795   0.052027 -11.0288 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016  -0.459714   0.055809  -8.2373 2.432e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002      1.135481   0.117690   9.6480 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015     -0.829045   0.065570 -12.6436 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014     0.271320   0.050301   5.3939 1.172e-07 ***
## fesisSweden.2016          0.262616   0.055045   4.7709 2.560e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   91.247  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 35.420  1 2.657e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10862
## R-squared          0.99685
## Log-lik.(n=462)  397.54490
ETS (pairs)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 17:26:56 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -3.191928  1.117610  -2.8560 0.0045106 ** 
## lpop                    -0.733100  0.269717  -2.7180 0.0068490 ** 
## lgdp_wb_sq               0.067492  0.020924   3.2256 0.0013593 ** 
## EU_ETS_05               -0.019812  0.036276  -0.5461 0.5852680    
## EU_ETS_08               -0.025627  0.034229  -0.7487 0.4544746    
## idAustria               -2.612486  0.197838 -13.2052 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.180494  0.142631 -15.2877 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.298018  0.118318  -2.5188 0.0121605 *  
## idDenmark               -2.561315  0.292489  -8.7570 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.340892  0.292192  -8.0115 1.219e-14 ***
## idFrance                -0.974825  0.278551  -3.4996 0.0005176 ***
## idGermany                0.942161  0.335262   2.8102 0.0051909 ** 
## idGreece                -1.316825  0.141745  -9.2901 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.085873  0.339032  -9.1020 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.111850  0.259157   0.4316 0.6662682    
## idJapan                  1.259317  0.446397   2.8211 0.0050219 ** 
## idLuxembourg            -7.964735  0.840452  -9.4767 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.170690  0.063092 -18.5551 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.585907  0.333887 -10.7399 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.041585  0.149077 -13.6949 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.227152  0.208359  -1.0902 0.2762762    
## idSweden                -3.173628  0.179286 -17.7015 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.706209  0.246704 -19.0763 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.196357  0.267310   0.7346 0.4630279    
## idUnitedStates           2.448912  0.692444   3.5366 0.0004522 ***
## time2000                61.185348 14.331371   4.2693 2.445e-05 ***
## time2001                61.216949 14.331000   4.2716 2.421e-05 ***
## time2002                61.238499 14.330012   4.2734 2.402e-05 ***
## time2003                61.275891 14.329706   4.2761 2.374e-05 ***
## time2004                61.265511 14.329118   4.2756 2.380e-05 ***
## time2005                61.273165 14.325450   4.2772 2.363e-05 ***
## time2006                61.276516 14.324806   4.2777 2.359e-05 ***
## time2007                61.245445 14.324296   4.2756 2.380e-05 ***
## time2008                61.218795 14.320556   4.2749 2.387e-05 ***
## time2009                61.184162 14.321735   4.2721 2.416e-05 ***
## time2010                61.204734 14.320884   4.2738 2.398e-05 ***
## time2011                61.123749 14.320145   4.2684 2.455e-05 ***
## time2012                61.120559 14.319815   4.2683 2.456e-05 ***
## time2013                61.052494 14.319507   4.2636 2.506e-05 ***
## time2014                60.954663 14.319049   4.2569 2.579e-05 ***
## time2015                60.986214 14.317678   4.2595 2.550e-05 ***
## time2016                60.931261 14.317559   4.2557 2.592e-05 ***
## time2017                60.923634 14.316764   4.2554 2.595e-05 ***
## time2018                60.857710 14.316090   4.2510 2.644e-05 ***
## time2019                60.761029 14.315608   4.2444 2.720e-05 ***
## time2020                60.680482 14.317760   4.2381 2.794e-05 ***
## time2021                60.701790 14.316119   4.2401 2.770e-05 ***
## iis267                  -0.550911  0.147117  -3.7447 0.0002068 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    0.339313  0.051585   6.5778 1.477e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.587482  0.048355 -12.1493 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.494741  0.051816  -9.5481 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.118660  0.110056  10.1645 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -0.934060  0.062224 -15.0113 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.257066  0.046637   5.5121 6.325e-08 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.223428  0.051126   4.3701 1.580e-05 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.439500  0.050857   8.6419 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015      0.229974  0.053433   4.3040 2.106e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   73.176  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 27.249  1 1.789e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10150
## R-squared          0.99726
## Log-lik.(n=462)  429.87021

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 18:27:35 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                  -1.029062   1.180359  -0.8718 0.3838225    
## lpop                     -1.824079   0.264407  -6.8988 2.029e-11 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq                0.029350   0.022131   1.3262 0.1855160    
## EU_ETS_05                -0.071370   0.030145  -2.3676 0.0183739 *  
## EU_ETS_13                -0.161486   0.028884  -5.5908 4.161e-08 ***
## idAustria                -3.539505   0.196630 -18.0009 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium                -2.789557   0.142276 -19.6067 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                  0.161917   0.115169   1.4059 0.1605189    
## idDenmark                -3.857748   0.287636 -13.4119 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland                -3.635175   0.286705 -12.6791 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                  0.267398   0.270812   0.9874 0.3240391    
## idGermany                 2.448872   0.326871   7.4919 4.302e-13 ***
## idGreece                 -1.826278   0.144377 -12.6494 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland                -4.582857   0.332050 -13.8017 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                   1.250989   0.251639   4.9714 9.835e-07 ***
## idJapan                   3.388185   0.426452   7.9451 1.941e-14 ***
## idLuxembourg            -11.551121   0.819063 -14.1029 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands            -1.377309   0.065843 -20.9182 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand             -5.118048   0.325990 -15.7000 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal               -2.589737   0.151379 -17.1077 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                   0.632771   0.202635   3.1227 0.0019206 ** 
## idSweden                 -3.959022   0.177957 -22.2471 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland            -5.770331   0.240982 -23.9450 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom           1.391116   0.259766   5.3553 1.435e-07 ***
## idUnitedStates            5.471975   0.686406   7.9719 1.609e-14 ***
## time2000                 48.866590  15.149629   3.2256 0.0013591 ** 
## time2001                 48.902538  15.149208   3.2281 0.0013478 ** 
## time2002                 48.928150  15.148128   3.2300 0.0013390 ** 
## time2003                 48.971540  15.147772   3.2329 0.0013256 ** 
## time2004                 48.965600  15.147114   3.2327 0.0013268 ** 
## time2005                 49.015799  15.142290   3.2370 0.0013072 ** 
## time2006                 49.024044  15.141570   3.2377 0.0013041 ** 
## time2007                 48.997694  15.140992   3.2361 0.0013114 ** 
## time2008                 48.961747  15.140733   3.2338 0.0013218 ** 
## time2009                 48.938032  15.141970   3.2319 0.0013300 ** 
## time2010                 48.964259  15.141036   3.2339 0.0013213 ** 
## time2011                 48.909640  15.140319   3.2304 0.0013370 ** 
## time2012                 48.913280  15.139949   3.2307 0.0013355 ** 
## time2013                 48.966464  15.135223   3.2353 0.0013151 ** 
## time2014                 48.872949  15.134752   3.2292 0.0013426 ** 
## time2015                 48.912178  15.132995   3.2322 0.0013291 ** 
## time2016                 48.860858  15.133354   3.2287 0.0013449 ** 
## time2017                 48.846268  15.132359   3.2279 0.0013484 ** 
## time2018                 48.768887  15.131469   3.2230 0.0013712 ** 
## time2019                 48.676993  15.130931   3.2171 0.0013992 ** 
## time2020                 48.605133  15.133209   3.2118 0.0014243 ** 
## time2021                 48.625387  15.131441   3.2135 0.0014160 ** 
## iis267                   -0.550505   0.153333  -3.5903 0.0003709 ***
## fesisAustria.2017         0.262699   0.056173   4.6766 3.981e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018     0.345041   0.061929   5.5716 4.611e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015        -0.570254   0.050685 -11.2511 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016  -0.426595   0.054772  -7.7885 5.743e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002      1.144806   0.114682   9.9825 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015     -0.789162   0.064539 -12.2277 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014     0.277071   0.049004   5.6541 2.962e-08 ***
## fesisSweden.2016          0.287920   0.053863   5.3454 1.510e-07 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016       0.257242   0.057702   4.4581 1.072e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   86.330  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 28.609  1 8.856e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10579
## R-squared          0.99703
## Log-lik.(n=462)  410.75282

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 18:49:40 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                  -1.093089   1.169985  -0.9343 0.3507181    
## lpop                     -1.811840   0.263286  -6.8817 2.259e-11 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq                0.030392   0.021948   1.3847 0.1668987    
## EU_ETS_08                -0.076589   0.029861  -2.5648 0.0106821 *  
## EU_ETS_13                -0.141580   0.031658  -4.4722 1.007e-05 ***
## idAustria                -3.550982   0.196699 -18.0529 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium                -2.802750   0.142448 -19.6755 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                  0.157630   0.114617   1.3753 0.1698069    
## idDenmark                -3.866101   0.287399 -13.4520 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland                -3.645199   0.286540 -12.7214 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                  0.243294   0.267365   0.9100 0.3633790    
## idGermany                 2.423217   0.322971   7.5029 3.996e-13 ***
## idGreece                 -1.845607   0.144713 -12.7535 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland                -4.590401   0.331676 -13.8400 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                   1.226985   0.248455   4.9385 1.154e-06 ***
## idJapan                   3.372841   0.423834   7.9579 1.774e-14 ***
## idLuxembourg            -11.545272   0.817080 -14.1299 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands            -1.391580   0.065378 -21.2851 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand             -5.114774   0.324744 -15.7502 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal               -2.609121   0.151730 -17.1958 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                   0.609327   0.200049   3.0459 0.0024717 ** 
## idSweden                 -3.970094   0.178027 -22.3005 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland            -5.761892   0.239803 -24.0276 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom           1.368274   0.256225   5.3401 1.552e-07 ***
## idUnitedStates            5.448528   0.681382   7.9963 1.356e-14 ***
## time2000                 49.644363  15.039863   3.3009 0.0010493 ** 
## time2001                 49.680403  15.039446   3.3033 0.0010403 ** 
## time2002                 49.706279  15.038347   3.3053 0.0010333 ** 
## time2003                 49.749719  15.038000   3.3083 0.0010227 ** 
## time2004                 49.743940  15.037344   3.3080 0.0010235 ** 
## time2005                 49.743252  15.036650   3.3081 0.0010231 ** 
## time2006                 49.751662  15.035932   3.3089 0.0010206 ** 
## time2007                 49.725477  15.035356   3.3072 0.0010263 ** 
## time2008                 49.744145  15.031752   3.3093 0.0010191 ** 
## time2009                 49.720077  15.033017   3.3074 0.0010258 ** 
## time2010                 49.746368  15.032092   3.3093 0.0010188 ** 
## time2011                 49.691742  15.031387   3.3059 0.0010312 ** 
## time2012                 49.695286  15.031033   3.3062 0.0010301 ** 
## time2013                 49.734228  15.026892   3.3097 0.0010177 ** 
## time2014                 49.640780  15.026428   3.3036 0.0010395 ** 
## time2015                 49.680101  15.024672   3.3066 0.0010287 ** 
## time2016                 49.628895  15.025021   3.3031 0.0010413 ** 
## time2017                 49.614413  15.024031   3.3023 0.0010440 ** 
## time2018                 49.537129  15.023146   3.2974 0.0010620 ** 
## time2019                 49.445302  15.022615   3.2914 0.0010843 ** 
## time2020                 49.373071  15.024914   3.2861 0.0011044 ** 
## time2021                 49.393663  15.023136   3.2878 0.0010977 ** 
## iis267                   -0.550664   0.153151  -3.5956 0.0003636 ***
## fesisAustria.2017         0.262620   0.056107   4.6807 3.905e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018     0.344945   0.061855   5.5767 4.488e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015        -0.570007   0.050623 -11.2597 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016  -0.427243   0.054676  -7.8141 4.814e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002      1.140853   0.114501   9.9637 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015     -0.788383   0.064463 -12.2301 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014     0.277074   0.048945   5.6609 2.856e-08 ***
## fesisSweden.2016          0.288100   0.053797   5.3553 1.435e-07 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016       0.256730   0.057599   4.4572 1.076e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   86.628  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 30.965  1 2.627e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10566
## R-squared          0.99704
## Log-lik.(n=462)  411.29951

w/ Temp Controls

1990-2021

no ETS

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 19:45:41 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -2.2870e+00  6.6818e-01  -3.4228 0.0006625 ***
## lpop                     2.3117e-04  2.0411e-01   0.0011 0.9990967    
## lgdp_wb_sq               4.7025e-02  1.3105e-02   3.5883 0.0003603 ***
## hdd                      1.8426e-04  3.0030e-05   6.1358 1.549e-09 ***
## cdd                      2.6842e-04  8.5767e-05   3.1297 0.0018359 ** 
## idAustria               -2.4394e+00  1.5920e-01 -15.3230 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.7395e+00  1.1673e-01 -14.9020 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -9.5669e-01  1.3323e-01  -7.1805 2.085e-12 ***
## idDenmark               -1.6708e+00  2.1788e-01  -7.6685 7.148e-14 ***
## idFinland               -2.1190e+00  2.3815e-01  -8.8980 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.6855e+00  1.9902e-01  -8.4694 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idGermany                7.1934e-02  2.3770e-01   0.3026 0.7622800    
## idGreece                -1.2426e+00  9.1670e-02 -13.5553 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.2897e+00  2.4771e-01  -9.2435 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -5.9495e-01  1.8404e-01  -3.2327 0.0012944 ** 
## idJapan                  1.8228e-01  3.0029e-01   0.6070 0.5440814    
## idLuxembourg            -4.3211e+00  6.4190e-01  -6.7318 3.956e-11 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.1710e+00  7.9494e-02 -14.7311 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.1859e+00  2.4701e-01 -12.8975 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.7619e+00  9.5671e-02 -18.4166 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -8.0445e-01  1.5599e-01  -5.1571 3.422e-07 ***
## idSweden                -2.9750e+00  1.5749e-01 -18.8908 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.3333e+00  1.9814e-01 -21.8698 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -2.6764e-01  1.9573e-01  -1.3674 0.1720173    
## idUnitedStates           1.2647e+00  4.1195e-01   3.0700 0.0022385 ** 
## time1990                 3.8995e+01  9.5198e+00   4.0962 4.782e-05 ***
## time1991                 3.9010e+01  9.5198e+00   4.0978 4.752e-05 ***
## time1992                 3.9033e+01  9.5197e+00   4.1002 4.703e-05 ***
## time1993                 3.8976e+01  9.5199e+00   4.0942 4.824e-05 ***
## time1994                 3.8992e+01  9.5200e+00   4.0958 4.791e-05 ***
## time1995                 3.9022e+01  9.5186e+00   4.0996 4.715e-05 ***
## time1996                 3.9000e+01  9.5172e+00   4.0979 4.749e-05 ***
## time1997                 3.9041e+01  9.5158e+00   4.1027 4.653e-05 ***
## time1998                 3.9071e+01  9.5149e+00   4.1063 4.583e-05 ***
## time1999                 3.9075e+01  9.5137e+00   4.1073 4.566e-05 ***
## time2000                 3.9089e+01  9.5126e+00   4.1092 4.528e-05 ***
## time2001                 3.9101e+01  9.5120e+00   4.1106 4.501e-05 ***
## time2002                 3.9158e+01  9.5130e+00   4.1163 4.396e-05 ***
## time2003                 3.9148e+01  9.5132e+00   4.1151 4.417e-05 ***
## time2004                 3.9182e+01  9.5117e+00   4.1194 4.339e-05 ***
## time2005                 3.9174e+01  9.5113e+00   4.1187 4.351e-05 ***
## time2006                 3.9185e+01  9.5108e+00   4.1200 4.326e-05 ***
## time2007                 3.9188e+01  9.5098e+00   4.1208 4.312e-05 ***
## time2008                 3.9111e+01  9.5103e+00   4.1124 4.467e-05 ***
## time2009                 3.9044e+01  9.5131e+00   4.1043 4.623e-05 ***
## time2010                 3.9006e+01  9.5120e+00   4.1007 4.694e-05 ***
## time2011                 3.9029e+01  9.5123e+00   4.1030 4.648e-05 ***
## time2012                 3.8962e+01  9.5128e+00   4.0957 4.793e-05 ***
## time2013                 3.8906e+01  9.5120e+00   4.0901 4.906e-05 ***
## time2014                 3.8873e+01  9.5121e+00   4.0867 4.978e-05 ***
## time2015                 3.8839e+01  9.5118e+00   4.0832 5.051e-05 ***
## time2016                 3.8797e+01  9.5107e+00   4.0793 5.133e-05 ***
## time2017                 3.8817e+01  9.5099e+00   4.0818 5.080e-05 ***
## time2018                 3.8746e+01  9.5097e+00   4.0744 5.239e-05 ***
## time2019                 3.8657e+01  9.5092e+00   4.0652 5.445e-05 ***
## time2020                 3.8607e+01  9.5130e+00   4.0583 5.604e-05 ***
## time2021                 3.8603e+01  9.5099e+00   4.0593 5.581e-05 ***
## iis181                   3.4867e-01  1.0988e-01   3.1733 0.0015851 ** 
## iis414                  -9.5718e-01  1.1319e-01  -8.4563 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis415                  -2.0143e+00  1.1251e-01 -17.9027 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8816e+00  1.1160e-01 -16.8601 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.5842e+00  1.1118e-01 -14.2483 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0835e+00  1.1084e-01  -9.7756 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2002  -2.0338e-01  5.2746e-02  -3.8558 0.0001279 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001       -2.5911e-01  3.9760e-02  -6.5167 1.535e-10 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    3.5241e-01  4.9362e-02   7.1394 2.749e-12 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -4.4410e-01  4.2001e-02 -10.5734 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -5.5489e-01  5.5831e-02  -9.9388 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2000 -1.6709e-01  4.5259e-02  -3.6919 0.0002431 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -4.8850e-01  4.9094e-02  -9.9503 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -7.8647e-01  8.8804e-02  -8.8562 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     3.7149e-01  8.7250e-02   4.2577 2.400e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -4.0948e-01  7.1452e-02  -5.7308 1.590e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -7.5993e-01  7.6362e-02  -9.9516 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.6125e-01  4.3539e-02   6.0004 3.424e-09 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          4.6737e-01  4.2674e-02  10.9522 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2008      2.0933e-01  4.3247e-02   4.8402 1.656e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     5.4154e-01  5.1236e-02  10.5695 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   142.204  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  46.061  1 1.146e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10291
## R-squared          0.99714
## Log-lik.(n=672)  613.52972

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 19:45:42 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -2.7003e+00  7.1409e-01  -3.7815 0.0001716 ***
## lpop                    -1.0494e-01  2.1809e-01  -0.4812 0.6305791    
## lgdp_wb_sq               5.5715e-02  1.4001e-02   3.9792 7.764e-05 ***
## hdd                      1.8977e-04  3.2076e-05   5.9162 5.552e-09 ***
## cdd                      3.0041e-04  9.1521e-05   3.2824 0.0010893 ** 
## idAustria               -2.4707e+00  1.7008e-01 -14.5270 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.9170e+00  1.2292e-01 -15.5948 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -9.2891e-01  1.4257e-01  -6.5156 1.540e-10 ***
## idDenmark               -1.7121e+00  2.3295e-01  -7.3498 6.563e-13 ***
## idFinland               -2.1807e+00  2.5444e-01  -8.5705 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.6181e+00  2.1290e-01  -7.6003 1.150e-13 ***
## idGermany                1.3764e-01  2.5430e-01   0.5412 0.5885400    
## idGreece                -1.2377e+00  9.8080e-02 -12.6196 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.3605e+00  2.6458e-01  -8.9217 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -5.3183e-01  1.9680e-01  -2.7024 0.0070805 ** 
## idJapan                  2.5736e-01  3.2105e-01   0.8016 0.4231028    
## idLuxembourg            -4.6202e+00  6.8578e-01  -6.7371 3.809e-11 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.0970e+00  8.4512e-02 -12.9802 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.2618e+00  2.6390e-01 -12.3600 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.7405e+00  1.0213e-01 -17.0422 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -7.3092e-01  1.6676e-01  -4.3831 1.382e-05 ***
## idSweden                -3.0039e+00  1.6826e-01 -17.8530 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.4020e+00  2.1170e-01 -20.7937 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -2.1157e-01  2.0939e-01  -1.0104 0.3127032    
## idUnitedStates           1.2967e+00  4.4043e-01   2.9441 0.0033654 ** 
## time1990                 4.5542e+01  1.0169e+01   4.4786 9.005e-06 ***
## time1991                 4.5555e+01  1.0169e+01   4.4799 8.951e-06 ***
## time1992                 4.5580e+01  1.0169e+01   4.4824 8.851e-06 ***
## time1993                 4.5524e+01  1.0169e+01   4.4768 9.080e-06 ***
## time1994                 4.5537e+01  1.0169e+01   4.4780 9.029e-06 ***
## time1995                 4.5567e+01  1.0168e+01   4.4816 8.882e-06 ***
## time1996                 4.5561e+01  1.0166e+01   4.4817 8.877e-06 ***
## time1997                 4.5582e+01  1.0165e+01   4.4844 8.770e-06 ***
## time1998                 4.5611e+01  1.0164e+01   4.4877 8.641e-06 ***
## time1999                 4.5614e+01  1.0162e+01   4.4885 8.609e-06 ***
## time2000                 4.5627e+01  1.0161e+01   4.4903 8.540e-06 ***
## time2001                 4.5623e+01  1.0161e+01   4.4901 8.545e-06 ***
## time2002                 4.5681e+01  1.0162e+01   4.4955 8.341e-06 ***
## time2003                 4.5668e+01  1.0162e+01   4.4940 8.396e-06 ***
## time2004                 4.5704e+01  1.0160e+01   4.4983 8.234e-06 ***
## time2005                 4.5695e+01  1.0160e+01   4.4976 8.261e-06 ***
## time2006                 4.5704e+01  1.0159e+01   4.4987 8.218e-06 ***
## time2007                 4.5709e+01  1.0158e+01   4.4996 8.184e-06 ***
## time2008                 4.5632e+01  1.0159e+01   4.4918 8.480e-06 ***
## time2009                 4.5568e+01  1.0162e+01   4.4842 8.779e-06 ***
## time2010                 4.5526e+01  1.0161e+01   4.4806 8.924e-06 ***
## time2011                 4.5552e+01  1.0161e+01   4.4830 8.826e-06 ***
## time2012                 4.5484e+01  1.0162e+01   4.4761 9.108e-06 ***
## time2013                 4.5428e+01  1.0161e+01   4.4710 9.321e-06 ***
## time2014                 4.5410e+01  1.0161e+01   4.4692 9.397e-06 ***
## time2015                 4.5374e+01  1.0160e+01   4.4657 9.544e-06 ***
## time2016                 4.5331e+01  1.0159e+01   4.4621 9.701e-06 ***
## time2017                 4.5351e+01  1.0158e+01   4.4644 9.600e-06 ***
## time2018                 4.5278e+01  1.0158e+01   4.4574 9.912e-06 ***
## time2019                 4.5189e+01  1.0157e+01   4.4488 1.030e-05 ***
## time2020                 4.5144e+01  1.0162e+01   4.4426 1.060e-05 ***
## time2021                 4.5137e+01  1.0158e+01   4.4434 1.056e-05 ***
## iis415                  -2.0411e+00  1.2046e-01 -16.9437 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.9067e+00  1.1949e-01 -15.9571 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.6046e+00  1.1905e-01 -13.4776 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0915e+00  1.1871e-01  -9.1944 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2002  -2.1833e-01  5.6450e-02  -3.8677 0.0001219 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    3.5018e-01  5.2799e-02   6.6324 7.406e-11 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -4.5640e-01  4.4163e-02 -10.3344 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -5.6425e-01  5.9752e-02  -9.4432 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2000 -1.6187e-01  4.8426e-02  -3.3426 0.0008818 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -5.0357e-01  5.2505e-02  -9.5908 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -7.8953e-01  9.5063e-02  -8.3053 6.692e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997    -5.7126e-01  1.3852e-01  -4.1240 4.251e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998     9.8793e-01  1.2117e-01   8.1530 2.097e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -4.0671e-01  7.6528e-02  -5.3146 1.512e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -7.5459e-01  8.1786e-02  -9.2265 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          4.5652e-01  4.5581e-02  10.0154 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2008      2.0470e-01  4.6308e-02   4.4204 1.170e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     5.6764e-01  5.4772e-02  10.3635 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   174.199  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  60.016  1 9.437e-15 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11023
## R-squared          0.99670
## Log-lik.(n=672)  565.88620
ETS (all phases)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 21:03:20 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -8.5717e-01  7.0325e-01  -1.2189 0.2233819    
## lpop                    -1.4409e+00  2.0895e-01  -6.8959 1.384e-11 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq               2.4905e-02  1.3678e-02   1.8208 0.0691469 .  
## hdd                      2.0211e-04  3.1059e-05   6.5073 1.637e-10 ***
## cdd                      3.7259e-04  8.8750e-05   4.1982 3.106e-05 ***
## EU_ETS_05               -9.5890e-02  3.4444e-02  -2.7840 0.0055425 ** 
## EU_ETS_08               -7.0117e-02  3.7131e-02  -1.8884 0.0594664 .  
## EU_ETS_13               -1.4599e-01  3.0544e-02  -4.7796 2.221e-06 ***
## idAustria               -3.3392e+00  1.6054e-01 -20.7992 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.4203e+00  1.1634e-01 -20.8043 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -2.7769e-01  1.4332e-01  -1.9376 0.0531536 .  
## idDenmark               -3.0789e+00  2.2075e-01 -13.9477 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.5019e+00  2.3832e-01 -14.6942 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -9.2818e-02  2.1336e-01  -0.4350 0.6637023    
## idGermany                2.0753e+00  2.5908e-01   8.0102 6.154e-15 ***
## idGreece                -1.6224e+00  9.2496e-02 -17.5399 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.9310e+00  2.5027e-01 -15.7068 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  9.7997e-01  2.0230e-01   4.8442 1.627e-06 ***
## idJapan                  2.7525e+00  3.1996e-01   8.6027 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idLuxembourg            -8.8071e+00  6.4522e-01 -13.6498 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.2106e+00  8.3062e-02 -14.5744 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.8744e+00  2.5120e-01 -19.4047 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.1285e+00  9.7812e-02 -21.7608 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                  3.1012e-01  1.6591e-01   1.8692 0.0620844 .  
## idSweden                -3.7573e+00  1.5946e-01 -23.5634 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.5427e+00  2.0149e-01 -27.5090 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          1.4267e+00  2.1346e-01   6.6836 5.416e-11 ***
## idUnitedStates           4.7188e+00  4.5664e-01  10.3337 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time1990                 4.0369e+01  9.6582e+00   4.1798 3.361e-05 ***
## time1991                 4.0388e+01  9.6579e+00   4.1819 3.331e-05 ***
## time1992                 4.0425e+01  9.6578e+00   4.1857 3.276e-05 ***
## time1993                 4.0375e+01  9.6578e+00   4.1806 3.350e-05 ***
## time1994                 4.0386e+01  9.6579e+00   4.1817 3.334e-05 ***
## time1995                 4.0430e+01  9.6572e+00   4.1865 3.265e-05 ***
## time1996                 4.0413e+01  9.6558e+00   4.1853 3.283e-05 ***
## time1997                 4.0450e+01  9.6544e+00   4.1898 3.221e-05 ***
## time1998                 4.0466e+01  9.6538e+00   4.1917 3.194e-05 ***
## time1999                 4.0458e+01  9.6529e+00   4.1913 3.200e-05 ***
## time2000                 4.0466e+01  9.6513e+00   4.1927 3.180e-05 ***
## time2001                 4.0463e+01  9.6507e+00   4.1927 3.180e-05 ***
## time2002                 4.0517e+01  9.6501e+00   4.1986 3.100e-05 ***
## time2003                 4.0503e+01  9.6500e+00   4.1972 3.120e-05 ***
## time2004                 4.0545e+01  9.6486e+00   4.2022 3.053e-05 ***
## time2005                 4.0610e+01  9.6497e+00   4.2085 2.972e-05 ***
## time2006                 4.0623e+01  9.6490e+00   4.2100 2.952e-05 ***
## time2007                 4.0637e+01  9.6481e+00   4.2119 2.929e-05 ***
## time2008                 4.0630e+01  9.6472e+00   4.2116 2.933e-05 ***
## time2009                 4.0579e+01  9.6497e+00   4.2052 3.015e-05 ***
## time2010                 4.0537e+01  9.6484e+00   4.2015 3.063e-05 ***
## time2011                 4.0576e+01  9.6488e+00   4.2053 3.013e-05 ***
## time2012                 4.0534e+01  9.6488e+00   4.2009 3.070e-05 ***
## time2013                 4.0570e+01  9.6461e+00   4.2059 3.006e-05 ***
## time2014                 4.0547e+01  9.6463e+00   4.2034 3.038e-05 ***
## time2015                 4.0509e+01  9.6450e+00   4.2000 3.083e-05 ***
## time2016                 4.0470e+01  9.6444e+00   4.1962 3.132e-05 ***
## time2017                 4.0493e+01  9.6436e+00   4.1989 3.097e-05 ***
## time2018                 4.0405e+01  9.6430e+00   4.1901 3.216e-05 ***
## time2019                 4.0322e+01  9.6424e+00   4.1817 3.334e-05 ***
## time2020                 4.0294e+01  9.6462e+00   4.1772 3.398e-05 ***
## time2021                 4.0282e+01  9.6431e+00   4.1773 3.397e-05 ***
## iis181                   3.1266e-01  1.1185e-01   2.7955 0.0053511 ** 
## iis414                  -1.0390e+00  1.1507e-01  -9.0291 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis415                  -2.0822e+00  1.1437e-01 -18.2061 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.9472e+00  1.1338e-01 -17.1740 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.6376e+00  1.1287e-01 -14.5091 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.1276e+00  1.1251e-01 -10.0218 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2005  -2.0938e-01  5.2811e-02  -3.9647 8.252e-05 ***
## fesisAustria.2016        2.5884e-01  4.9874e-02   5.1899 2.900e-07 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.4587e-01  5.9999e-02   5.7645 1.322e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -4.0234e-01  4.2974e-02  -9.3623 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -5.1833e-01  5.7276e-02  -9.0498 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999          2.0399e-01  4.5102e-02   4.5228 7.381e-06 ***
## fesisFrance.2005         1.8193e-01  4.0686e-02   4.4715 9.320e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1995 -2.3562e-01  5.5767e-02  -4.2251 2.767e-05 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.2825e-01  5.2178e-02  -8.2075 1.429e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -7.8027e-01  9.0342e-02  -8.6369 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     4.6501e-01  8.8710e-02   5.2419 2.218e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -4.6853e-01  1.1381e-01  -4.1169 4.388e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -4.2791e-01  1.1679e-01  -3.6639 0.0002708 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    3.2677e-01  4.4978e-02   7.2651 1.188e-12 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.4279e-01  5.0368e-02   4.8204 1.826e-06 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      2.3888e-01  4.9282e-02   4.8473 1.603e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     5.4981e-01  5.2765e-02  10.4200 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   151.195  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  47.188  1 6.451e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10474
## R-squared          0.99706
## Log-lik.(n=672)  604.16523

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 21:03:21 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -1.4436e+00  7.1506e-01  -2.0188 0.0439513 *  
## lpop                    -6.6126e-01  2.2600e-01  -2.9260 0.0035642 ** 
## lgdp_wb_sq               3.3034e-02  1.3981e-02   2.3629 0.0184538 *  
## hdd                      1.9000e-04  3.3971e-05   5.5929 3.403e-08 ***
## cdd                      3.7802e-04  9.6380e-05   3.9222 9.793e-05 ***
## EU_ETS_05               -8.7820e-02  3.7736e-02  -2.3273 0.0202849 *  
## EU_ETS_08               -6.4548e-02  4.1435e-02  -1.5578 0.1198100    
## EU_ETS_13               -1.0931e-01  3.3165e-02  -3.2959 0.0010391 ** 
## idAustria               -2.8961e+00  1.7581e-01 -16.4731 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.2065e+00  1.2861e-01 -17.1563 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -7.3164e-01  1.4652e-01  -4.9933 7.801e-07 ***
## idDenmark               -2.3571e+00  2.4120e-01  -9.7723 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.8175e+00  2.6107e-01 -10.7923 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -9.3757e-01  2.1750e-01  -4.3106 1.904e-05 ***
## idGermany                9.7963e-01  2.6056e-01   3.7597 0.0001868 ***
## idGreece                -1.5427e+00  1.0114e-01 -15.2529 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.1109e+00  2.7258e-01 -11.4128 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  7.0026e-02  2.0156e-01   0.3474 0.7284025    
## idJapan                  1.3566e+00  3.1940e-01   4.2474 2.508e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg            -6.4608e+00  7.0124e-01  -9.2135 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.2370e+00  9.0278e-02 -13.7021 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.0383e+00  2.7287e-01 -14.7992 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.0237e+00  1.0753e-01 -18.8202 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -3.0027e-01  1.7170e-01  -1.7488 0.0808337 .  
## idSweden                -3.3686e+00  1.7460e-01 -19.2929 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.9343e+00  2.2089e-01 -22.3378 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          3.5408e-01  2.1114e-01   1.6770 0.0940641 .  
## idUnitedStates           2.8353e+00  4.5090e-01   6.2880 6.215e-10 ***
## time1990                 3.7422e+01  1.0136e+01   3.6922 0.0002427 ***
## time1991                 3.7440e+01  1.0136e+01   3.6939 0.0002411 ***
## time1992                 3.7472e+01  1.0136e+01   3.6971 0.0002382 ***
## time1993                 3.7419e+01  1.0136e+01   3.6918 0.0002431 ***
## time1994                 3.7428e+01  1.0136e+01   3.6927 0.0002423 ***
## time1995                 3.7463e+01  1.0134e+01   3.6966 0.0002386 ***
## time1996                 3.7463e+01  1.0133e+01   3.6971 0.0002381 ***
## time1997                 3.7486e+01  1.0131e+01   3.7000 0.0002355 ***
## time1998                 3.7515e+01  1.0130e+01   3.7032 0.0002326 ***
## time1999                 3.7518e+01  1.0129e+01   3.7040 0.0002319 ***
## time2000                 3.7527e+01  1.0127e+01   3.7056 0.0002305 ***
## time2001                 3.7525e+01  1.0127e+01   3.7055 0.0002306 ***
## time2002                 3.7575e+01  1.0126e+01   3.7107 0.0002260 ***
## time2003                 3.7559e+01  1.0126e+01   3.7090 0.0002275 ***
## time2004                 3.7603e+01  1.0125e+01   3.7140 0.0002232 ***
## time2005                 3.7672e+01  1.0126e+01   3.7201 0.0002179 ***
## time2006                 3.7682e+01  1.0126e+01   3.7214 0.0002169 ***
## time2007                 3.7694e+01  1.0125e+01   3.7229 0.0002156 ***
## time2008                 3.7678e+01  1.0124e+01   3.7216 0.0002166 ***
## time2009                 3.7617e+01  1.0127e+01   3.7145 0.0002227 ***
## time2010                 3.7577e+01  1.0126e+01   3.7109 0.0002258 ***
## time2011                 3.7608e+01  1.0126e+01   3.7139 0.0002232 ***
## time2012                 3.7563e+01  1.0126e+01   3.7094 0.0002271 ***
## time2013                 3.7586e+01  1.0124e+01   3.7126 0.0002244 ***
## time2014                 3.7559e+01  1.0124e+01   3.7099 0.0002267 ***
## time2015                 3.7499e+01  1.0123e+01   3.7041 0.0002318 ***
## time2016                 3.7503e+01  1.0123e+01   3.7048 0.0002312 ***
## time2017                 3.7526e+01  1.0122e+01   3.7073 0.0002290 ***
## time2018                 3.7452e+01  1.0122e+01   3.7001 0.0002354 ***
## time2019                 3.7367e+01  1.0121e+01   3.6919 0.0002430 ***
## time2020                 3.7326e+01  1.0125e+01   3.6864 0.0002482 ***
## time2021                 3.7322e+01  1.0122e+01   3.6872 0.0002474 ***
## iis414                  -1.0082e+00  1.2853e-01  -7.8441 2.020e-14 ***
## iis415                  -2.0614e+00  1.2784e-01 -16.1247 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.9360e+00  1.2687e-01 -15.2594 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.6269e+00  1.2640e-01 -12.8713 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.1178e+00  1.2604e-01  -8.8684 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2005  -2.7730e-01  5.5820e-02  -4.9677 8.858e-07 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -4.4167e-01  4.7077e-02  -9.3818 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -5.6823e-01  6.3606e-02  -8.9335 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.5622e-01  5.6682e-02  -9.8130 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -7.8816e-01  1.0080e-01  -7.8190 2.420e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     4.3344e-01  9.8759e-02   4.3889 1.348e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -3.3416e-01  8.1601e-02  -4.0950 4.803e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -7.5275e-01  8.6434e-02  -8.7089 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.7673e-01  4.9741e-02   5.5634 3.997e-08 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     4.8163e-01  5.8258e-02   8.2672 8.918e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   205.006  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  79.072  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11693
## R-squared          0.99628
## Log-lik.(n=672)  526.21980

2000-2021

no ETS

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 19:46:20 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -4.1200e+00  9.9920e-01  -4.1233 4.538e-05 ***
## lpop                    -9.7703e-01  2.4160e-01  -4.0441 6.295e-05 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq               8.6600e-02  1.8678e-02   4.6364 4.797e-06 ***
## hdd                      1.5983e-04  3.4487e-05   4.6346 4.838e-06 ***
## cdd                      1.8918e-04  1.0137e-04   1.8662 0.0627410 .  
## idAustria               -3.1011e+00  2.0263e-01 -15.3041 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.4303e+00  1.5062e-01 -16.1353 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -6.4790e-01  1.6030e-01  -4.0418 6.356e-05 ***
## idDenmark               -2.9528e+00  2.7345e-01 -10.7985 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.0239e+00  2.9529e-01 -10.2405 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -9.7548e-01  2.4616e-01  -3.9627 8.764e-05 ***
## idGermany                8.5039e-01  2.9566e-01   2.8763 0.0042379 ** 
## idGreece                -1.4650e+00  1.3095e-01 -11.1873 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.4810e+00  3.0925e-01 -11.2562 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  1.2805e-01  2.2143e-01   0.5783 0.5634063    
## idJapan                  1.3239e+00  3.8063e-01   3.4783 0.0005596 ***
## idLuxembourg            -8.9404e+00  7.5103e-01 -11.9042 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.3632e+00  9.9745e-02 -13.6672 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.7426e+00  2.9050e-01 -12.8833 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.0562e+00  1.3849e-01 -14.8474 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -1.5345e-01  1.8185e-01  -0.8438 0.3992727    
## idSweden                -3.6514e+00  1.9773e-01 -18.4661 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.1885e+00  2.3890e-01 -21.7185 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          1.5648e-01  2.4125e-01   0.6486 0.5169413    
## idUnitedStates           2.3687e+00  5.8009e-01   4.0834 5.355e-05 ***
## time2000                 7.6157e+01  1.3170e+01   5.7827 1.476e-08 ***
## time2001                 7.6160e+01  1.3170e+01   5.7829 1.474e-08 ***
## time2002                 7.6204e+01  1.3169e+01   5.7867 1.444e-08 ***
## time2003                 7.6205e+01  1.3170e+01   5.7864 1.446e-08 ***
## time2004                 7.6210e+01  1.3168e+01   5.7873 1.439e-08 ***
## time2005                 7.6203e+01  1.3168e+01   5.7868 1.443e-08 ***
## time2006                 7.6211e+01  1.3168e+01   5.7874 1.438e-08 ***
## time2007                 7.6205e+01  1.3167e+01   5.7874 1.438e-08 ***
## time2008                 7.6146e+01  1.3167e+01   5.7831 1.473e-08 ***
## time2009                 7.6103e+01  1.3169e+01   5.7791 1.505e-08 ***
## time2010                 7.6072e+01  1.3168e+01   5.7770 1.522e-08 ***
## time2011                 7.6084e+01  1.3168e+01   5.7781 1.513e-08 ***
## time2012                 7.6042e+01  1.3168e+01   5.7749 1.540e-08 ***
## time2013                 7.5970e+01  1.3167e+01   5.7696 1.585e-08 ***
## time2014                 7.5927e+01  1.3167e+01   5.7665 1.613e-08 ***
## time2015                 7.5900e+01  1.3168e+01   5.7641 1.634e-08 ***
## time2016                 7.5852e+01  1.3166e+01   5.7611 1.661e-08 ***
## time2017                 7.5833e+01  1.3166e+01   5.7599 1.672e-08 ***
## time2018                 7.5763e+01  1.3166e+01   5.7545 1.722e-08 ***
## time2019                 7.5671e+01  1.3165e+01   5.7478 1.787e-08 ***
## time2020                 7.5638e+01  1.3168e+01   5.7443 1.822e-08 ***
## time2021                 7.5623e+01  1.3166e+01   5.7440 1.824e-08 ***
## iis267                  -5.2876e-01  1.4033e-01  -3.7680 0.0001891 ***
## fesisAustria.2017        2.5469e-01  5.1174e-02   4.9771 9.584e-07 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    3.9429e-01  4.9198e-02   8.0142 1.209e-14 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.6527e-01  6.4216e-02  -4.1309 4.397e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.4104e-01  6.8882e-02  -4.9511 1.087e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -4.6484e-01  4.7118e-02  -9.8653 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.0966e+00  1.0483e-01  10.4609 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -8.8822e-01  6.0341e-02 -14.7200 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.6849e-01  4.4473e-02   6.0372 3.562e-09 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.5724e-01  4.8707e-02   5.2813 2.103e-07 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          4.3262e-01  4.5035e-02   9.6062 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015      2.3708e-01  5.1053e-02   4.6438 4.638e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   70.787  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.696  1  0.001074 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09672
## R-squared          0.99753
## Log-lik.(n=462)  453.15789

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 19:46:21 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -4.6474e+00  1.0711e+00  -4.3389 1.808e-05 ***
## lpop                    -5.8163e-01  2.5091e-01  -2.3181 0.0209401 *  
## lgdp_wb_sq               9.5609e-02  2.0052e-02   4.7680 2.596e-06 ***
## hdd                      1.5021e-04  3.7784e-05   3.9754 8.312e-05 ***
## cdd                      1.4454e-04  1.1184e-04   1.2924 0.1969629    
## idAustria               -2.7803e+00  2.1534e-01 -12.9110 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.2707e+00  1.6196e-01 -14.0205 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -8.8047e-01  1.6372e-01  -5.3780 1.273e-07 ***
## idDenmark               -2.5292e+00  2.8699e-01  -8.8129 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.5979e+00  3.1329e-01  -8.2923 1.639e-15 ***
## idFrance                -1.4696e+00  2.4344e-01  -6.0367 3.544e-09 ***
## idGermany                2.7053e-01  2.9162e-01   0.9277 0.3541317    
## idGreece                -1.3149e+00  1.4028e-01  -9.3736 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.0028e+00  3.2261e-01  -9.3079 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -3.1905e-01  2.1861e-01  -1.4595 0.1452098    
## idJapan                  5.9297e-01  3.7596e-01   1.5772 0.1155192    
## idLuxembourg            -7.6611e+00  7.8017e-01  -9.8197 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.2536e+00  1.0925e-01 -11.4748 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.2910e+00  3.0109e-01 -10.9302 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.9195e+00  1.4824e-01 -12.9486 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -5.0852e-01  1.8275e-01  -2.7827 0.0056427 ** 
## idSweden                -3.3550e+00  2.1075e-01 -15.9191 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.8567e+00  2.5428e-01 -19.0996 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -3.0870e-01  2.3864e-01  -1.2936 0.1965403    
## idUnitedStates           1.2786e+00  5.7025e-01   2.2421 0.0254907 *  
## time2000                 7.7278e+01  1.4346e+01   5.3868 1.216e-07 ***
## time2001                 7.7282e+01  1.4346e+01   5.3870 1.215e-07 ***
## time2002                 7.7323e+01  1.4345e+01   5.3903 1.194e-07 ***
## time2003                 7.7327e+01  1.4346e+01   5.3901 1.195e-07 ***
## time2004                 7.7327e+01  1.4345e+01   5.3907 1.192e-07 ***
## time2005                 7.7318e+01  1.4345e+01   5.3901 1.195e-07 ***
## time2006                 7.7325e+01  1.4345e+01   5.3905 1.193e-07 ***
## time2007                 7.7314e+01  1.4343e+01   5.3902 1.195e-07 ***
## time2008                 7.7253e+01  1.4343e+01   5.3860 1.221e-07 ***
## time2009                 7.7207e+01  1.4345e+01   5.3821 1.246e-07 ***
## time2010                 7.7178e+01  1.4345e+01   5.3802 1.258e-07 ***
## time2011                 7.7184e+01  1.4344e+01   5.3809 1.254e-07 ***
## time2012                 7.7142e+01  1.4344e+01   5.3779 1.273e-07 ***
## time2013                 7.7068e+01  1.4344e+01   5.3728 1.307e-07 ***
## time2014                 7.7032e+01  1.4343e+01   5.3705 1.323e-07 ***
## time2015                 7.7023e+01  1.4344e+01   5.3696 1.329e-07 ***
## time2016                 7.6994e+01  1.4343e+01   5.3682 1.339e-07 ***
## time2017                 7.6984e+01  1.4342e+01   5.3677 1.342e-07 ***
## time2018                 7.6915e+01  1.4343e+01   5.3627 1.378e-07 ***
## time2019                 7.6821e+01  1.4342e+01   5.3564 1.423e-07 ***
## time2020                 7.6781e+01  1.4344e+01   5.3527 1.450e-07 ***
## time2021                 7.6768e+01  1.4342e+01   5.3526 1.451e-07 ***
## iis267                  -5.3120e-01  1.5520e-01  -3.4227 0.0006829 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    3.2131e-01  5.3628e-02   5.9914 4.582e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.6352e-01  7.0973e-02  -3.7129 0.0002334 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.9135e-01  7.5954e-02  -5.1525 4.015e-07 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -5.2709e-01  5.1479e-02 -10.2390 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.0793e+00  1.1590e-01   9.3123 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -9.8814e-01  6.5277e-02 -15.1377 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          4.1977e-01  4.9605e-02   8.4623 4.780e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   108.35  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  14.76  1 0.0001221 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10697
## R-squared          0.99695
## Log-lik.(n=462)  404.62407
ETS (all phases)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 21:03:50 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                  1.1555e+00  1.2314e+00   0.9383 0.3486344    
## lpop                    -1.9445e+00  2.5330e-01  -7.6764 1.267e-13 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq              -1.0987e-02  2.3127e-02  -0.4751 0.6349898    
## hdd                      1.6400e-04  3.5490e-05   4.6211 5.157e-06 ***
## cdd                      2.7211e-04  1.0398e-04   2.6170 0.0092071 ** 
## EU_ETS_05               -3.6837e-02  3.5432e-02  -1.0396 0.2991379    
## EU_ETS_08               -7.1681e-02  3.5172e-02  -2.0380 0.0422082 *  
## EU_ETS_13               -1.7472e-01  3.2258e-02  -5.4163 1.053e-07 ***
## idAustria               -3.9243e+00  2.1648e-01 -18.1281 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.9977e+00  1.6130e-01 -18.5843 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -1.8481e-01  1.6511e-01  -1.1193 0.2636726    
## idDenmark               -4.1884e+00  2.9440e-01 -14.2269 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -4.2153e+00  3.1402e-01 -13.4238 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                 3.7385e-01  2.6577e-01   1.4067 0.1602975    
## idGermany                2.5258e+00  3.2190e-01   7.8466 3.945e-14 ***
## idGreece                -2.0186e+00  1.3898e-01 -14.5239 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -4.8362e+00  3.3295e-01 -14.5253 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  1.2980e+00  2.4097e-01   5.3866 1.228e-07 ***
## idJapan                  3.5461e+00  4.0578e-01   8.7391 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idLuxembourg            -1.1941e+01  8.0403e-01 -14.8512 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.5223e+00  1.0428e-01 -14.5980 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -5.0967e+00  3.2564e-01 -15.6513 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.5940e+00  1.5097e-01 -17.1821 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                  6.6593e-01  1.9428e-01   3.4277 0.0006719 ***
## idSweden                -4.3716e+00  2.0973e-01 -20.8440 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -6.1786e+00  2.5483e-01 -24.2463 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          1.4992e+00  2.6073e-01   5.7502 1.772e-08 ***
## idUnitedStates           5.9660e+00  6.5179e-01   9.1532 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2000                 2.1059e+01  1.6186e+01   1.3011 0.1939894    
## time2001                 2.1065e+01  1.6186e+01   1.3015 0.1938510    
## time2002                 2.1116e+01  1.6185e+01   1.3047 0.1927506    
## time2003                 2.1117e+01  1.6185e+01   1.3047 0.1927511    
## time2004                 2.1134e+01  1.6184e+01   1.3059 0.1923540    
## time2005                 2.1159e+01  1.6181e+01   1.3077 0.1917368    
## time2006                 2.1172e+01  1.6180e+01   1.3085 0.1914459    
## time2007                 2.1178e+01  1.6179e+01   1.3090 0.1912981    
## time2008                 2.1180e+01  1.6178e+01   1.3092 0.1912164    
## time2009                 2.1139e+01  1.6179e+01   1.3065 0.1921186    
## time2010                 2.1114e+01  1.6179e+01   1.3050 0.1926322    
## time2011                 2.1136e+01  1.6178e+01   1.3065 0.1921369    
## time2012                 2.1107e+01  1.6178e+01   1.3047 0.1927559    
## time2013                 2.1181e+01  1.6169e+01   1.3100 0.1909501    
## time2014                 2.1148e+01  1.6169e+01   1.3079 0.1916417    
## time2015                 2.1161e+01  1.6167e+01   1.3089 0.1913255    
## time2016                 2.1090e+01  1.6167e+01   1.3045 0.1928065    
## time2017                 2.1090e+01  1.6167e+01   1.3046 0.1927870    
## time2018                 2.1007e+01  1.6166e+01   1.2995 0.1945344    
## time2019                 2.0908e+01  1.6165e+01   1.2934 0.1966138    
## time2020                 2.0875e+01  1.6168e+01   1.2912 0.1973955    
## time2021                 2.0868e+01  1.6166e+01   1.2909 0.1974897    
## iis267                  -5.1528e-01  1.4339e-01  -3.5937 0.0003667 ***
## fesisAustria.2016        2.5252e-01  4.9752e-02   5.0755 5.933e-07 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.5697e-01  5.9428e-02   6.0068 4.256e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -5.5401e-01  4.7608e-02 -11.6370 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -3.9695e-01  5.1575e-02  -7.6965 1.104e-13 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.1155e+00  1.0774e-01  10.3532 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -8.0699e-01  6.2994e-02 -12.8105 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.8621e-01  4.5811e-02   6.2476 1.067e-09 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         3.1510e-01  5.0613e-02   6.2257 1.213e-09 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      2.2668e-01  5.4963e-02   4.1242 4.526e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2013    -3.1372e-01  5.8419e-02  -5.3703 1.336e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2019     3.1932e-01  7.3181e-02   4.3635 1.631e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   68.463  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 16.193  1 5.721e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09882
## R-squared          0.99744
## Log-lik.(n=462)  444.74987

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 21:04:00 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                 -1.7129e+00  1.1601e+00  -1.4765 0.1405923    
## lpop                    -1.5642e+00  2.5121e-01  -6.2265 1.199e-09 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq               4.1883e-02  2.1770e-02   1.9239 0.0550684 .  
## hdd                      1.8258e-04  3.7606e-05   4.8551 1.725e-06 ***
## cdd                      2.8285e-04  1.1045e-04   2.5609 0.0108033 *  
## EU_ETS_05               -2.1490e-02  3.7596e-02  -0.5716 0.5679161    
## EU_ETS_08               -6.6462e-02  3.7391e-02  -1.7775 0.0762446 .  
## EU_ETS_13               -1.3408e-01  3.1731e-02  -4.2254 2.953e-05 ***
## idAustria               -3.6760e+00  2.2227e-01 -16.5384 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.8274e+00  1.6709e-01 -16.9215 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -4.8092e-01  1.6383e-01  -2.9355 0.0035209 ** 
## idDenmark               -3.7908e+00  2.9717e-01 -12.7564 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.8545e+00  3.2051e-01 -12.0261 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -2.1943e-01  2.5858e-01  -0.8486 0.3966074    
## idGermany                1.7818e+00  3.1349e-01   5.6837 2.532e-08 ***
## idGreece                -1.8830e+00  1.4458e-01 -13.0233 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -4.3676e+00  3.3376e-01 -13.0864 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  7.7426e-01  2.3344e-01   3.3168 0.0009933 ***
## idJapan                  2.6214e+00  3.9428e-01   6.6485 9.654e-11 ***
## idLuxembourg            -1.0946e+01  7.9105e-01 -13.8376 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.5047e+00  1.1060e-01 -13.6048 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.6988e+00  3.2218e-01 -14.5842 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.4379e+00  1.5628e-01 -15.5995 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                  2.9546e-01  1.8882e-01   1.5648 0.1184152    
## idSweden                -4.1615e+00  2.1702e-01 -19.1755 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.8624e+00  2.6069e-01 -22.4878 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          9.0156e-01  2.5436e-01   3.5445 0.0004395 ***
## idUnitedStates           4.3186e+00  6.3665e-01   6.7834 4.201e-11 ***
## time2000                 5.3599e+01  1.5074e+01   3.5557 0.0004217 ***
## time2001                 5.3600e+01  1.5074e+01   3.5559 0.0004215 ***
## time2002                 5.3650e+01  1.5073e+01   3.5594 0.0004159 ***
## time2003                 5.3645e+01  1.5073e+01   3.5590 0.0004167 ***
## time2004                 5.3661e+01  1.5072e+01   3.5604 0.0004145 ***
## time2005                 5.3673e+01  1.5069e+01   3.5619 0.0004122 ***
## time2006                 5.3685e+01  1.5068e+01   3.5628 0.0004109 ***
## time2007                 5.3690e+01  1.5067e+01   3.5634 0.0004099 ***
## time2008                 5.3683e+01  1.5065e+01   3.5633 0.0004100 ***
## time2009                 5.3639e+01  1.5067e+01   3.5600 0.0004151 ***
## time2010                 5.3604e+01  1.5066e+01   3.5579 0.0004183 ***
## time2011                 5.3632e+01  1.5066e+01   3.5599 0.0004152 ***
## time2012                 5.3596e+01  1.5065e+01   3.5576 0.0004188 ***
## time2013                 5.3624e+01  1.5061e+01   3.5605 0.0004144 ***
## time2014                 5.3594e+01  1.5060e+01   3.5586 0.0004172 ***
## time2015                 5.3604e+01  1.5059e+01   3.5595 0.0004158 ***
## time2016                 5.3544e+01  1.5059e+01   3.5556 0.0004219 ***
## time2017                 5.3541e+01  1.5058e+01   3.5556 0.0004219 ***
## time2018                 5.3456e+01  1.5058e+01   3.5499 0.0004308 ***
## time2019                 5.3370e+01  1.5057e+01   3.5444 0.0004396 ***
## time2020                 5.3342e+01  1.5060e+01   3.5420 0.0004436 ***
## time2021                 5.3329e+01  1.5058e+01   3.5416 0.0004442 ***
## iis267                  -5.1882e-01  1.5247e-01  -3.4029 0.0007335 ***
## fesisAustria.2016        2.4142e-01  5.2736e-02   4.5780 6.264e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.5585e-01  6.1719e-02   5.7656 1.621e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -5.5360e-01  5.0548e-02 -10.9519 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.4593e-01  5.4318e-02  -8.2096 3.035e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.1459e+00  1.1394e-01  10.0572 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -8.1888e-01  6.3730e-02 -12.8492 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.7739e-01  4.8698e-02   5.6962 2.366e-08 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.9062e-01  5.3496e-02   5.4325 9.631e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   86.925  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 36.981  1 1.193e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10508
## R-squared          0.99708
## Log-lik.(n=462)  414.84901

Temp & Pop Only

1990-2021

no ETS

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + hdd + cdd"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 19:51:21 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                     3.3863e-01  1.2587e-01   2.6904 0.0073396 ** 
## hdd                      1.7173e-04  3.0089e-05   5.7073 1.821e-08 ***
## cdd                      2.4841e-04  8.3810e-05   2.9639 0.0031604 ** 
## idAustria               -2.3795e+00  1.4573e-01 -16.3282 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.7354e+00  1.1083e-01 -15.6583 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -9.8719e-01  1.2342e-01  -7.9984 6.725e-15 ***
## idDenmark               -1.5076e+00  1.8522e-01  -8.1393 2.381e-15 ***
## idFinland               -1.9808e+00  2.1421e-01  -9.2470 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.7741e+00  1.5822e-01 -11.2130 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idGermany                3.2587e-02  1.9374e-01   0.1682 0.8664845    
## idGreece                -1.3742e+00  8.7438e-02 -15.7163 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.1091e+00  2.1209e-01  -9.9447 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -7.2018e-01  1.4129e-01  -5.0973 4.652e-07 ***
## idJapan                  1.2751e-01  2.4027e-01   0.5307 0.5958396    
## idLuxembourg            -4.2308e+00  4.9628e-01  -8.5251 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.1856e+00  7.9018e-02 -15.0038 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.0129e+00  2.1699e-01 -13.8852 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.9025e+00  9.0464e-02 -21.0308 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -1.0217e+00  1.0461e-01  -9.7661 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSweden                -2.9051e+00  1.4526e-01 -20.0000 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.1081e+00  1.5706e-01 -26.1559 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -3.2988e-01  1.6324e-01  -2.0208 0.0437556 *  
## idUnitedStates           1.4545e+00  3.4114e-01   4.2638 2.341e-05 ***
## time1990                 5.9608e+00  2.1007e+00   2.8376 0.0047025 ** 
## time1991                 5.9787e+00  2.1012e+00   2.8454 0.0045907 ** 
## time1992                 6.0020e+00  2.1023e+00   2.8550 0.0044551 ** 
## time1993                 5.9419e+00  2.1028e+00   2.8257 0.0048783 ** 
## time1994                 5.9761e+00  2.1038e+00   2.8406 0.0046590 ** 
## time1995                 6.0031e+00  2.1044e+00   2.8527 0.0044874 ** 
## time1996                 5.9874e+00  2.1046e+00   2.8450 0.0045965 ** 
## time1997                 6.0359e+00  2.1051e+00   2.8673 0.0042879 ** 
## time1998                 6.0732e+00  2.1058e+00   2.8841 0.0040691 ** 
## time1999                 6.0841e+00  2.1064e+00   2.8883 0.0040154 ** 
## time2000                 6.1046e+00  2.1073e+00   2.8969 0.0039094 ** 
## time2001                 6.1215e+00  2.1078e+00   2.9042 0.0038207 ** 
## time2002                 6.1705e+00  2.1087e+00   2.9262 0.0035638 ** 
## time2003                 6.1654e+00  2.1093e+00   2.9229 0.0036008 ** 
## time2004                 6.2019e+00  2.1104e+00   2.9387 0.0034252 ** 
## time2005                 6.1984e+00  2.1114e+00   2.9357 0.0034581 ** 
## time2006                 6.2144e+00  2.1125e+00   2.9417 0.0033924 ** 
## time2007                 6.2204e+00  2.1137e+00   2.9429 0.0033793 ** 
## time2008                 6.1405e+00  2.1137e+00   2.9051 0.0038099 ** 
## time2009                 6.0625e+00  2.1145e+00   2.8671 0.0042909 ** 
## time2010                 6.0322e+00  2.1147e+00   2.8525 0.0044902 ** 
## time2011                 6.0517e+00  2.1162e+00   2.8596 0.0043920 ** 
## time2012                 5.9847e+00  2.1171e+00   2.8268 0.0048617 ** 
## time2013                 5.9316e+00  2.1172e+00   2.8016 0.0052517 ** 
## time2014                 5.8971e+00  2.1188e+00   2.7832 0.0055548 ** 
## time2015                 5.8723e+00  2.1195e+00   2.7707 0.0057711 ** 
## time2016                 5.8628e+00  2.1197e+00   2.7659 0.0058556 ** 
## time2017                 5.8630e+00  2.1205e+00   2.7649 0.0058723 ** 
## time2018                 5.7974e+00  2.1213e+00   2.7330 0.0064651 ** 
## time2019                 5.7072e+00  2.1220e+00   2.6896 0.0073576 ** 
## time2020                 5.6322e+00  2.1232e+00   2.6527 0.0081998 ** 
## time2021                 5.6451e+00  2.1230e+00   2.6590 0.0080496 ** 
## iis181                   3.5938e-01  1.1020e-01   3.2611 0.0011741 ** 
## iis407                   8.8198e-01  1.2978e-01   6.7959 2.645e-11 ***
## iis408                   8.6085e-01  1.2971e-01   6.6368 7.289e-11 ***
## iis409                   8.1972e-01  1.2976e-01   6.3174 5.254e-10 ***
## iis410                   8.9117e-01  1.2982e-01   6.8645 1.700e-11 ***
## iis411                   6.1970e-01  1.2989e-01   4.7709 2.316e-06 ***
## iis414                  -8.8447e-01  1.1114e-01  -7.9583 9.017e-15 ***
## iis415                  -1.9540e+00  1.1104e-01 -17.5964 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8346e+00  1.1087e-01 -16.5472 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.5504e+00  1.1083e-01 -13.9889 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0547e+00  1.1072e-01  -9.5256 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis433                  -8.3899e-01  1.2244e-01  -6.8524 1.837e-11 ***
## iis434                  -8.6843e-01  1.2246e-01  -7.0918 3.816e-12 ***
## iis435                  -8.8321e-01  1.2275e-01  -7.1955 1.906e-12 ***
## iis640                  -8.1940e-01  1.2276e-01  -6.6747 5.738e-11 ***
## iis641                  -7.0931e-01  1.2305e-01  -5.7644 1.324e-08 ***
## iis642                  -7.1676e-01  1.2329e-01  -5.8136 1.004e-08 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001       -2.6466e-01  3.9807e-02  -6.6485 6.770e-11 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    3.3944e-01  4.8930e-02   6.9372 1.058e-11 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -4.0504e-01  4.3669e-02  -9.2751 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -5.4239e-01  5.1543e-02 -10.5231 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2000 -1.2747e-01  4.2959e-02  -2.9672 0.0031275 ** 
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.0545e-01  5.1062e-02  -9.8989 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     2.7776e-01  8.2719e-02   3.3579 0.0008363 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -4.5778e-01  7.0122e-02  -6.5283 1.439e-10 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.6728e-01  4.3636e-02   6.1253 1.657e-09 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          4.8330e-01  4.2497e-02  11.3727 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2008      2.5270e-01  4.1452e-02   6.0962 1.967e-09 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     4.7749e-01  4.7461e-02  10.0608 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   150.923  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  42.415  1  7.38e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10327
## R-squared          0.99714
## Log-lik.(n=672)  614.20074

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + hdd + cdd"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 19:51:24 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                     3.4969e-01  1.3479e-01   2.5943  0.009709 ** 
## hdd                      1.7509e-04  3.2232e-05   5.4322 8.110e-08 ***
## cdd                      2.8548e-04  8.9224e-05   3.1996  0.001449 ** 
## idAustria               -2.3579e+00  1.5572e-01 -15.1416 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.8862e+00  1.1690e-01 -16.1344 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -9.8467e-01  1.3243e-01  -7.4353 3.634e-13 ***
## idDenmark               -1.4570e+00  1.9809e-01  -7.3550 6.319e-13 ***
## idFinland               -1.9549e+00  2.2898e-01  -8.5374 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.7730e+00  1.6973e-01 -10.4460 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idGermany                3.0469e-02  2.0783e-01   0.1466  0.883495    
## idGreece                -1.3771e+00  9.3676e-02 -14.7009 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.0724e+00  2.2666e-01  -9.1428 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -7.3089e-01  1.5151e-01  -4.8240 1.788e-06 ***
## idJapan                  1.0584e-01  2.5743e-01   0.4111  0.681126    
## idLuxembourg            -4.1948e+00  5.3127e-01  -7.8958 1.386e-14 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.0998e+00  8.3975e-02 -13.0966 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -2.9851e+00  2.3223e-01 -12.8540 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.8839e+00  9.6672e-02 -19.4876 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -1.0283e+00  1.1222e-01  -9.1634 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSweden                -2.8826e+00  1.5520e-01 -18.5738 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.0825e+00  1.6786e-01 -24.3202 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -4.0083e-01  1.7253e-01  -2.3233  0.020498 *  
## idUnitedStates           1.4157e+00  3.6544e-01   3.8738  0.000119 ***
## time1990                 5.7579e+00  2.2495e+00   2.5597  0.010722 *  
## time1991                 5.7750e+00  2.2501e+00   2.5666  0.010512 *  
## time1992                 5.8001e+00  2.2512e+00   2.5765  0.010221 *  
## time1993                 5.7399e+00  2.2518e+00   2.5490  0.011051 *  
## time1994                 5.7715e+00  2.2528e+00   2.5619  0.010654 *  
## time1995                 5.8000e+00  2.2534e+00   2.5739  0.010297 *  
## time1996                 5.8024e+00  2.2536e+00   2.5747  0.010273 *  
## time1997                 5.8355e+00  2.2541e+00   2.5889  0.009863 ** 
## time1998                 5.8686e+00  2.2549e+00   2.6026  0.009481 ** 
## time1999                 5.8796e+00  2.2556e+00   2.6067  0.009371 ** 
## time2000                 5.8948e+00  2.2565e+00   2.6124  0.009218 ** 
## time2001                 5.8935e+00  2.2571e+00   2.6112  0.009250 ** 
## time2002                 5.9469e+00  2.2579e+00   2.6339  0.008660 ** 
## time2003                 5.9384e+00  2.2585e+00   2.6294  0.008774 ** 
## time2004                 5.9780e+00  2.2597e+00   2.6455  0.008372 ** 
## time2005                 5.9736e+00  2.2607e+00   2.6423  0.008449 ** 
## time2006                 5.9888e+00  2.2619e+00   2.6477  0.008318 ** 
## time2007                 5.9972e+00  2.2632e+00   2.6499  0.008265 ** 
## time2008                 5.9171e+00  2.2632e+00   2.6145  0.009162 ** 
## time2009                 5.8379e+00  2.2640e+00   2.5785  0.010160 *  
## time2010                 5.8059e+00  2.2643e+00   2.5641  0.010588 *  
## time2011                 5.8274e+00  2.2659e+00   2.5718  0.010359 *  
## time2012                 5.7591e+00  2.2669e+00   2.5406  0.011319 *  
## time2013                 5.7068e+00  2.2669e+00   2.5175  0.012081 *  
## time2014                 5.6869e+00  2.2685e+00   2.5069  0.012444 *  
## time2015                 5.6608e+00  2.2692e+00   2.4946  0.012878 *  
## time2016                 5.6529e+00  2.2692e+00   2.4912  0.013003 *  
## time2017                 5.6515e+00  2.2702e+00   2.4894  0.013065 *  
## time2018                 5.5835e+00  2.2711e+00   2.4585  0.014235 *  
## time2019                 5.4970e+00  2.2720e+00   2.4195  0.015840 *  
## time2020                 5.4279e+00  2.2733e+00   2.3877  0.017263 *  
## time2021                 5.4408e+00  2.2732e+00   2.3935  0.016996 *  
## iis407                   8.9258e-01  1.3975e-01   6.3869 3.403e-10 ***
## iis408                   8.6983e-01  1.3968e-01   6.2272 8.947e-10 ***
## iis409                   8.2873e-01  1.3973e-01   5.9310 5.094e-09 ***
## iis410                   9.0267e-01  1.3979e-01   6.4573 2.208e-10 ***
## iis411                   6.2923e-01  1.3986e-01   4.4988 8.212e-06 ***
## iis415                  -9.9248e-01  1.3969e-01  -7.1049 3.437e-12 ***
## iis416                  -8.7419e-01  1.3962e-01  -6.2613 7.291e-10 ***
## iis417                  -5.8188e-01  1.3979e-01  -4.1624 3.612e-05 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    3.3236e-01  5.2622e-02   6.3161 5.238e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -4.1469e-01  4.6190e-02  -8.9779 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -5.5654e-01  5.5441e-02 -10.0383 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.6076e-01  5.2082e-02 -10.7668 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997    -6.7116e-01  1.1417e-01  -5.8787 6.878e-09 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     9.7926e-01  8.8134e-02  11.1110 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -4.6863e-01  7.5514e-02  -6.2059 1.017e-09 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -8.1443e-01  8.1350e-02 -10.0114 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          4.7948e-01  4.5632e-02  10.5074 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2008      2.5241e-01  4.4625e-02   5.6563 2.399e-08 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     4.9158e-01  5.1040e-02   9.6311 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   186.78  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  58.94  1 1.621e-14 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11123
## R-squared          0.99663
## Log-lik.(n=672)  559.26979
ETS (all phases)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 21:08:48 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                    -2.8241e-01  1.3415e-01  -2.1052 0.0356991 *  
## hdd                      2.0169e-04  3.2044e-05   6.2943 6.035e-10 ***
## cdd                      3.1294e-04  9.0648e-05   3.4522 0.0005958 ***
## EU_ETS_05               -3.7438e-02  3.5143e-02  -1.0653 0.2871772    
## EU_ETS_08               -7.4856e-02  3.8585e-02  -1.9400 0.0528531 .  
## EU_ETS_13               -1.2351e-01  3.1388e-02  -3.9349 9.317e-05 ***
## idAustria               -2.8966e+00  1.5474e-01 -18.7193 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.0463e+00  1.1908e-01 -17.1845 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -7.2841e-01  1.3439e-01  -5.4201 8.697e-08 ***
## idDenmark               -2.2348e+00  1.9726e-01 -11.3297 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.7698e+00  2.2587e-01 -12.2631 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -9.6092e-01  1.7322e-01  -5.5472 4.389e-08 ***
## idGermany                9.8993e-01  2.1082e-01   4.6957 3.309e-06 ***
## idGreece                -1.6754e+00  9.1488e-02 -18.3132 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.9769e+00  2.2526e-01 -13.2155 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  3.4830e-02  1.5938e-01   0.2185 0.8270902    
## idJapan                  1.4159e+00  2.5775e-01   5.4931 5.881e-08 ***
## idLuxembourg            -6.5553e+00  5.2699e-01 -12.4392 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.2237e+00  8.6481e-02 -14.1498 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.9292e+00  2.3240e-01 -16.9067 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.1896e+00  9.6582e-02 -22.6707 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -4.4021e-01  1.2085e-01  -3.6426 0.0002937 ***
## idSweden                -3.3590e+00  1.5534e-01 -21.6238 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.6994e+00  1.6801e-01 -27.9717 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          3.7925e-01  1.7404e-01   2.1790 0.0297239 *  
## idUnitedStates           3.1807e+00  3.6896e-01   8.6206 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time1990                 1.6198e+01  2.2409e+00   7.2283 1.524e-12 ***
## time1991                 1.6213e+01  2.2417e+00   7.2328 1.478e-12 ***
## time1992                 1.6246e+01  2.2423e+00   7.2454 1.357e-12 ***
## time1993                 1.6188e+01  2.2429e+00   7.2172 1.643e-12 ***
## time1994                 1.6224e+01  2.2446e+00   7.2283 1.524e-12 ***
## time1995                 1.6255e+01  2.2449e+00   7.2411 1.398e-12 ***
## time1996                 1.6239e+01  2.2449e+00   7.2338 1.468e-12 ***
## time1997                 1.6297e+01  2.2457e+00   7.2570 1.255e-12 ***
## time1998                 1.6327e+01  2.2458e+00   7.2697 1.151e-12 ***
## time1999                 1.6342e+01  2.2465e+00   7.2743 1.116e-12 ***
## time2000                 1.6362e+01  2.2471e+00   7.2816 1.062e-12 ***
## time2001                 1.6376e+01  2.2479e+00   7.2850 1.037e-12 ***
## time2002                 1.6432e+01  2.2485e+00   7.3080 8.871e-13 ***
## time2003                 1.6423e+01  2.2500e+00   7.2988 9.443e-13 ***
## time2004                 1.6471e+01  2.2505e+00   7.3188 8.239e-13 ***
## time2005                 1.6505e+01  2.2529e+00   7.3262 7.833e-13 ***
## time2006                 1.6526e+01  2.2542e+00   7.3313 7.567e-13 ***
## time2007                 1.6544e+01  2.2549e+00   7.3369 7.282e-13 ***
## time2008                 1.6532e+01  2.2569e+00   7.3249 7.902e-13 ***
## time2009                 1.6455e+01  2.2580e+00   7.2872 1.022e-12 ***
## time2010                 1.6419e+01  2.2588e+00   7.2688 1.158e-12 ***
## time2011                 1.6455e+01  2.2598e+00   7.2818 1.060e-12 ***
## time2012                 1.6408e+01  2.2605e+00   7.2586 1.242e-12 ***
## time2013                 1.6442e+01  2.2648e+00   7.2598 1.231e-12 ***
## time2014                 1.6421e+01  2.2659e+00   7.2471 1.341e-12 ***
## time2015                 1.6369e+01  2.2670e+00   7.2204 1.607e-12 ***
## time2016                 1.6355e+01  2.2668e+00   7.2150 1.667e-12 ***
## time2017                 1.6384e+01  2.2678e+00   7.2246 1.563e-12 ***
## time2018                 1.6305e+01  2.2690e+00   7.1859 2.029e-12 ***
## time2019                 1.6223e+01  2.2697e+00   7.1478 2.620e-12 ***
## time2020                 1.6164e+01  2.2708e+00   7.1184 3.189e-12 ***
## time2021                 1.6174e+01  2.2706e+00   7.1232 3.089e-12 ***
## iis181                   3.4302e-01  1.1628e-01   2.9499 0.0033049 ** 
## iis407                   8.6278e-01  1.3695e-01   6.3001 5.827e-10 ***
## iis408                   8.3965e-01  1.3685e-01   6.1355 1.559e-09 ***
## iis409                   8.0571e-01  1.3691e-01   5.8851 6.678e-09 ***
## iis410                   8.8658e-01  1.3699e-01   6.4717 2.042e-10 ***
## iis411                   6.1931e-01  1.3705e-01   4.5187 7.522e-06 ***
## iis414                  -9.5935e-01  1.1746e-01  -8.1673 1.928e-15 ***
## iis415                  -2.0104e+00  1.1736e-01 -17.1304 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8839e+00  1.1712e-01 -16.0849 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.5829e+00  1.1714e-01 -13.5123 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0884e+00  1.1697e-01  -9.3049 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2005  -1.5193e-01  4.3709e-02  -3.4758 0.0005468 ***
## fesisAustria.2016        2.0501e-01  5.1661e-02   3.9684 8.128e-05 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001       -2.4036e-01  4.2160e-02  -5.7010 1.885e-08 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.0558e-01  6.2045e-02   4.9251 1.097e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -4.5202e-01  4.4373e-02 -10.1870 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -5.3341e-01  5.9570e-02  -8.9545 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.0442e-01  5.1828e-02  -9.7325 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     3.6174e-01  8.7484e-02   4.1350 4.066e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -3.6392e-01  7.4864e-02  -4.8611 1.500e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -7.5074e-01  7.9886e-02  -9.3977 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    3.0320e-01  4.6573e-02   6.5101 1.609e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.0461e-01  5.2286e-02   3.9132 0.0001017 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      2.1222e-01  4.9991e-02   4.2452 2.537e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     4.6226e-01  5.0913e-02   9.0793 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   171.184  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  65.387  1 6.661e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10896
## R-squared          0.99682
## Log-lik.(n=672)  577.66470

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 21:08:54 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                    -5.2732e-02  1.3994e-01  -0.3768 0.7064517    
## hdd                      1.8441e-04  3.4699e-05   5.3145 1.510e-07 ***
## cdd                      2.9931e-04  9.6560e-05   3.0997 0.0020276 ** 
## EU_ETS_05               -3.9465e-02  3.7430e-02  -1.0544 0.2921392    
## EU_ETS_08               -7.0501e-02  4.2415e-02  -1.6622 0.0970045 .  
## EU_ETS_13               -1.1493e-01  3.3694e-02  -3.4111 0.0006905 ***
## idAustria               -2.7718e+00  1.6605e-01 -16.6928 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.1901e+00  1.2610e-01 -17.3677 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -9.3939e-01  1.3740e-01  -6.8371 1.994e-11 ***
## idDenmark               -2.0384e+00  2.1177e-01  -9.6254 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.5599e+00  2.4236e-01 -10.5623 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.3597e+00  1.7227e-01  -7.8926 1.411e-14 ***
## idGermany                5.4282e-01  2.1285e-01   2.5503 0.0110106 *  
## idGreece                -1.6755e+00  9.7890e-02 -17.1157 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.7508e+00  2.4125e-01 -11.4019 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -3.4961e-01  1.5423e-01  -2.2668 0.0237585 *  
## idJapan                  8.6171e-01  2.5624e-01   3.3629 0.0008203 ***
## idLuxembourg            -4.9862e+00  5.5582e-01  -8.9708 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.3038e+00  9.1203e-02 -14.2958 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.6995e+00  2.4889e-01 -14.8638 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.1908e+00  1.0468e-01 -20.9289 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -7.6296e-01  1.1279e-01  -6.7644 3.186e-11 ***
## idSweden                -3.2540e+00  1.6603e-01 -19.5988 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.5522e+00  1.8097e-01 -25.1550 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -3.7980e-03  1.7502e-01  -0.0217 0.9826942    
## idUnitedStates           2.3571e+00  3.7390e-01   6.3040 5.624e-10 ***
## time1990                 1.2527e+01  2.3450e+00   5.3423 1.305e-07 ***
## time1991                 1.2545e+01  2.3459e+00   5.3473 1.271e-07 ***
## time1992                 1.2572e+01  2.3467e+00   5.3572 1.206e-07 ***
## time1993                 1.2517e+01  2.3475e+00   5.3321 1.377e-07 ***
## time1994                 1.2538e+01  2.3490e+00   5.3378 1.336e-07 ***
## time1995                 1.2578e+01  2.3493e+00   5.3538 1.228e-07 ***
## time1996                 1.2581e+01  2.3496e+00   5.3544 1.224e-07 ***
## time1997                 1.2617e+01  2.3503e+00   5.3684 1.137e-07 ***
## time1998                 1.2656e+01  2.3511e+00   5.3830 1.052e-07 ***
## time1999                 1.2669e+01  2.3518e+00   5.3871 1.030e-07 ***
## time2000                 1.2687e+01  2.3524e+00   5.3933 9.965e-08 ***
## time2001                 1.2690e+01  2.3533e+00   5.3927 9.997e-08 ***
## time2002                 1.2743e+01  2.3539e+00   5.4136 8.945e-08 ***
## time2003                 1.2735e+01  2.3553e+00   5.4071 9.261e-08 ***
## time2004                 1.2781e+01  2.3560e+00   5.4250 8.419e-08 ***
## time2005                 1.2808e+01  2.3600e+00   5.4269 8.331e-08 ***
## time2006                 1.2826e+01  2.3613e+00   5.4318 8.115e-08 ***
## time2007                 1.2839e+01  2.3621e+00   5.4355 7.956e-08 ***
## time2008                 1.2824e+01  2.3643e+00   5.4241 8.458e-08 ***
## time2009                 1.2747e+01  2.3654e+00   5.3889 1.020e-07 ***
## time2010                 1.2714e+01  2.3662e+00   5.3733 1.108e-07 ***
## time2011                 1.2742e+01  2.3672e+00   5.3829 1.053e-07 ***
## time2012                 1.2697e+01  2.3679e+00   5.3621 1.175e-07 ***
## time2013                 1.2725e+01  2.3722e+00   5.3643 1.162e-07 ***
## time2014                 1.2698e+01  2.3733e+00   5.3503 1.251e-07 ***
## time2015                 1.2646e+01  2.3744e+00   5.3262 1.420e-07 ***
## time2016                 1.2655e+01  2.3747e+00   5.3291 1.398e-07 ***
## time2017                 1.2684e+01  2.3757e+00   5.3389 1.328e-07 ***
## time2018                 1.2618e+01  2.3770e+00   5.3085 1.559e-07 ***
## time2019                 1.2534e+01  2.3777e+00   5.2716 1.889e-07 ***
## time2020                 1.2470e+01  2.3787e+00   5.2422 2.201e-07 ***
## time2021                 1.2482e+01  2.3787e+00   5.2474 2.143e-07 ***
## iis414                  -9.4552e-01  1.2900e-01  -7.3295 7.500e-13 ***
## iis415                  -2.0093e+00  1.2897e-01 -15.5803 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8867e+00  1.2872e-01 -14.6570 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.5897e+00  1.2875e-01 -12.3472 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0821e+00  1.2860e-01  -8.4145 2.896e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -4.6304e-01  4.7862e-02  -9.6745 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -5.7015e-01  6.5160e-02  -8.7499 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.3675e-01  5.6507e-02  -9.4987 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -8.1507e-01  1.0290e-01  -7.9213 1.145e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     3.5196e-01  9.5871e-02   3.6712 0.0002629 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -3.8897e-01  8.2084e-02  -4.7387 2.689e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -8.0175e-01  8.7497e-02  -9.1632 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.8479e-01  5.0867e-02   5.5988 3.289e-08 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     4.3892e-01  5.4797e-02   8.0099 5.992e-15 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   218.337  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  86.622  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11980
## R-squared          0.99608
## Log-lik.(n=672)  508.41495

2000-2021

no ETS

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + hdd + cdd"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 19:51:50 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                    -5.1475e-01  1.8381e-01  -2.8005 0.0053506 ** 
## hdd                      1.7267e-04  3.5674e-05   4.8402 1.855e-06 ***
## cdd                      1.7807e-04  1.0384e-04   1.7149 0.0871400 .  
## idAustria               -3.2393e+00  2.0991e-01 -15.4323 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.6486e+00  1.5902e-01 -16.6561 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -6.6633e-01  1.5120e-01  -4.4071 1.348e-05 ***
## idDenmark               -3.0345e+00  2.7440e-01 -11.0586 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.2313e+00  3.0653e-01 -10.5413 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -8.8863e-01  2.1594e-01  -4.1151 4.701e-05 ***
## idGermany                1.0763e+00  2.6043e-01   4.1326 4.371e-05 ***
## idGreece                -1.8920e+00  1.2797e-01 -14.7845 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.5572e+00  3.0900e-01 -11.5120 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  9.9014e-02  1.9316e-01   0.5126 0.6085099    
## idJapan                  1.6355e+00  3.3835e-01   4.8337 1.914e-06 ***
## idLuxembourg            -8.3584e+00  7.2251e-01 -11.5685 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.4618e+00  1.0558e-01 -13.8460 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.9552e+00  3.0089e-01 -13.1450 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.5742e+00  1.4145e-01 -18.1990 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -4.0531e-01  1.4558e-01  -2.7842 0.0056207 ** 
## idSweden                -3.7822e+00  2.0483e-01 -18.4649 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.0378e+00  2.2505e-01 -22.3854 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          3.7241e-01  2.1624e-01   1.7222 0.0858072 .  
## idUnitedStates           3.6829e+00  4.9336e-01   7.4650 5.258e-13 ***
## time2000                 2.0560e+01  3.0873e+00   6.6595 9.096e-11 ***
## time2001                 2.0570e+01  3.0879e+00   6.6614 8.992e-11 ***
## time2002                 2.0625e+01  3.0890e+00   6.6771 8.169e-11 ***
## time2003                 2.0632e+01  3.0902e+00   6.6766 8.195e-11 ***
## time2004                 2.0650e+01  3.0912e+00   6.6803 8.012e-11 ***
## time2005                 2.0655e+01  3.0928e+00   6.6783 8.107e-11 ***
## time2006                 2.0679e+01  3.0946e+00   6.6823 7.910e-11 ***
## time2007                 2.0688e+01  3.0961e+00   6.6819 7.931e-11 ***
## time2008                 2.0626e+01  3.0971e+00   6.6597 9.088e-11 ***
## time2009                 2.0542e+01  3.0975e+00   6.6317 1.078e-10 ***
## time2010                 2.0518e+01  3.0978e+00   6.6236 1.133e-10 ***
## time2011                 2.0541e+01  3.1002e+00   6.6258 1.118e-10 ***
## time2012                 2.0496e+01  3.1015e+00   6.6085 1.242e-10 ***
## time2013                 2.0425e+01  3.1023e+00   6.5838 1.443e-10 ***
## time2014                 2.0397e+01  3.1048e+00   6.5693 1.577e-10 ***
## time2015                 2.0385e+01  3.1068e+00   6.5616 1.652e-10 ***
## time2016                 2.0382e+01  3.1062e+00   6.5616 1.651e-10 ***
## time2017                 2.0388e+01  3.1074e+00   6.5610 1.658e-10 ***
## time2018                 2.0331e+01  3.1089e+00   6.5396 1.887e-10 ***
## time2019                 2.0244e+01  3.1098e+00   6.5096 2.261e-10 ***
## time2020                 2.0173e+01  3.1117e+00   6.4831 2.651e-10 ***
## time2021                 2.0186e+01  3.1112e+00   6.4883 2.569e-10 ***
## iis267                  -5.1695e-01  1.4515e-01  -3.5614 0.0004134 ***
## iis283                  -1.1055e+00  1.0834e-01 -10.2045 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis284                  -1.1145e+00  1.0902e-01 -10.2233 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis285                  -1.1154e+00  1.1006e-01 -10.1343 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis430                  -1.0399e+00  1.1044e-01  -9.4157 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis431                  -9.2509e-01  1.1125e-01  -8.3152 1.450e-15 ***
## iis432                  -9.2826e-01  1.1173e-01  -8.3077 1.531e-15 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    3.6158e-01  5.0483e-02   7.1624 3.835e-12 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.7437e-01  6.6361e-02  -4.1345 4.336e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.8776e-01  7.1168e-02  -5.4485 8.894e-08 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.9554e-01  4.9781e-02  -9.9545 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisGreece.2015        -2.5638e-01  5.0463e-02  -5.0806 5.785e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.0274e+00  1.0694e-01   9.6071 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.3966e-01  4.6076e-02   5.2015 3.164e-07 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.2886e-01  5.0217e-02   4.5574 6.890e-06 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          4.2477e-01  4.6610e-02   9.1133 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2009      2.9263e-01  4.8093e-02   6.0847 2.734e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   81.8400  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  9.7624  1  0.001781 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10007
## R-squared          0.99737
## Log-lik.(n=462)  438.91262

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + hdd + cdd"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 19:51:58 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                    -1.2412e-01  1.8673e-01  -0.6647 0.5066095    
## hdd                      1.4463e-04  3.8757e-05   3.7318 0.0002170 ***
## cdd                      1.4911e-04  1.1258e-04   1.3245 0.1860887    
## idAustria               -2.8327e+00  2.1533e-01 -13.1551 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.3654e+00  1.6408e-01 -14.4164 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -7.8276e-01  1.6375e-01  -4.7803 2.445e-06 ***
## idDenmark               -2.4764e+00  2.8011e-01  -8.8410 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.6160e+00  3.1365e-01  -8.3405 1.144e-15 ***
## idFrance                -1.3072e+00  2.2320e-01  -5.8566 9.716e-09 ***
## idGermany                5.8272e-01  2.6953e-01   2.1620 0.0311970 *  
## idGreece                -1.7018e+00  1.3512e-01 -12.5950 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.9291e+00  3.1447e-01  -9.3145 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -2.8562e-01  1.9857e-01  -1.4384 0.1510893    
## idJapan                  9.5043e-01  3.4577e-01   2.7487 0.0062482 ** 
## idLuxembourg            -7.0884e+00  7.3036e-01  -9.7054 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.2598e+00  1.1188e-01 -11.2603 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.3538e+00  3.0645e-01 -10.9439 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.3068e+00  1.4475e-01 -15.9365 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -6.9520e-01  1.4991e-01  -4.6374 4.756e-06 ***
## idSweden                -3.3505e+00  2.0968e-01 -15.9793 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.5959e+00  2.3089e-01 -19.9053 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -2.6073e-02  2.2450e-01  -0.1161 0.9076015    
## idUnitedStates           2.6696e+00  5.0350e-01   5.3022 1.877e-07 ***
## time2000                 1.4021e+01  3.1371e+00   4.4693 1.017e-05 ***
## time2001                 1.4058e+01  3.1379e+00   4.4800 9.701e-06 ***
## time2002                 1.4096e+01  3.1389e+00   4.4907 9.245e-06 ***
## time2003                 1.4105e+01  3.1403e+00   4.4918 9.201e-06 ***
## time2004                 1.4118e+01  3.1413e+00   4.4945 9.090e-06 ***
## time2005                 1.4120e+01  3.1428e+00   4.4927 9.163e-06 ***
## time2006                 1.4140e+01  3.1446e+00   4.4966 9.005e-06 ***
## time2007                 1.4141e+01  3.1460e+00   4.4951 9.068e-06 ***
## time2008                 1.4079e+01  3.1472e+00   4.4736 9.980e-06 ***
## time2009                 1.3997e+01  3.1476e+00   4.4468 1.124e-05 ***
## time2010                 1.3980e+01  3.1482e+00   4.4406 1.156e-05 ***
## time2011                 1.3988e+01  3.1502e+00   4.4403 1.157e-05 ***
## time2012                 1.3945e+01  3.1517e+00   4.4247 1.240e-05 ***
## time2013                 1.3873e+01  3.1525e+00   4.4005 1.380e-05 ***
## time2014                 1.3843e+01  3.1546e+00   4.3883 1.456e-05 ***
## time2015                 1.3821e+01  3.1558e+00   4.3797 1.511e-05 ***
## time2016                 1.3830e+01  3.1551e+00   4.3834 1.487e-05 ***
## time2017                 1.3832e+01  3.1565e+00   4.3822 1.495e-05 ***
## time2018                 1.3773e+01  3.1581e+00   4.3611 1.639e-05 ***
## time2019                 1.3686e+01  3.1591e+00   4.3323 1.859e-05 ***
## time2020                 1.3612e+01  3.1609e+00   4.3065 2.079e-05 ***
## time2021                 1.3629e+01  3.1606e+00   4.3123 2.027e-05 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    3.2768e-01  5.5117e-02   5.9452 5.925e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.7270e-01  7.2826e-02  -3.7445 0.0002066 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.9867e-01  7.7960e-02  -5.1138 4.861e-07 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.1318e-01  5.4365e-02  -9.4396 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.2576e+00  8.6237e-02  14.5831 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -1.1111e+00  6.2172e-02 -17.8709 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          4.4555e-01  5.0476e-02   8.8269 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2009      2.4855e-01  5.2409e-02   4.7424 2.922e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   102.179  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  16.885  1 3.972e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10986
## R-squared          0.99676
## Log-lik.(n=462)  391.29664
ETS (all phases)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 21:09:23 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                    -1.1813e+00  1.9326e-01  -6.1126 2.335e-09 ***
## hdd                      1.7169e-04  3.4686e-05   4.9496 1.099e-06 ***
## cdd                      1.9106e-04  1.0065e-04   1.8982 0.0583902 .  
## EU_ETS_05               -3.2148e-02  3.4229e-02  -0.9392 0.3481970    
## EU_ETS_08               -5.1778e-02  3.4721e-02  -1.4913 0.1366817    
## EU_ETS_13               -1.7868e-01  2.9858e-02  -5.9846 4.834e-09 ***
## idAustria               -3.8537e+00  2.1119e-01 -18.2478 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -3.0342e+00  1.5867e-01 -19.1224 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -4.2097e-01  1.5386e-01  -2.7361 0.0064947 ** 
## idDenmark               -3.8797e+00  2.8126e-01 -13.7941 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -4.0872e+00  3.0742e-01 -13.2951 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -8.8070e-02  2.2949e-01  -0.3838 0.7013627    
## idGermany                2.0357e+00  2.7724e-01   7.3427 1.186e-12 ***
## idGreece                -2.2848e+00  1.3000e-01 -17.5759 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -4.5812e+00  3.2226e-01 -14.2155 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  8.3102e-01  2.0761e-01   4.0029 7.462e-05 ***
## idJapan                  2.9419e+00  3.5012e-01   8.4024 7.780e-16 ***
## idLuxembourg            -1.0871e+01  7.5327e-01 -14.4311 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.5757e+00  1.0280e-01 -15.3276 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.9990e+00  3.2246e-01 -15.5025 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.9951e+00  1.4516e-01 -20.6338 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                  1.4813e-01  1.5673e-01   0.9451 0.3451751    
## idSweden                -4.2780e+00  2.0353e-01 -21.0187 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.7302e+00  2.2830e-01 -25.0993 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          1.1413e+00  2.2738e-01   5.0192 7.834e-07 ***
## idUnitedStates           5.3843e+00  5.2147e-01  10.3251 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2000                 3.1734e+01  3.2495e+00   9.7656 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2001                 3.1748e+01  3.2507e+00   9.7664 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2002                 3.1803e+01  3.2515e+00   9.7812 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2003                 3.1813e+01  3.2534e+00   9.7785 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2004                 3.1838e+01  3.2542e+00   9.7836 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2005                 3.1869e+01  3.2575e+00   9.7835 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2006                 3.1898e+01  3.2592e+00   9.7871 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2007                 3.1913e+01  3.2603e+00   9.7883 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2008                 3.1894e+01  3.2618e+00   9.7780 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2009                 3.1819e+01  3.2626e+00   9.7526 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2010                 3.1799e+01  3.2637e+00   9.7434 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2011                 3.1825e+01  3.2650e+00   9.7475 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2012                 3.1804e+01  3.2661e+00   9.7376 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2013                 3.1874e+01  3.2707e+00   9.7453 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2014                 3.1848e+01  3.2721e+00   9.7331 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2015                 3.1858e+01  3.2723e+00   9.7354 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2016                 3.1828e+01  3.2722e+00   9.7269 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2017                 3.1838e+01  3.2736e+00   9.7257 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2018                 3.1769e+01  3.2750e+00   9.7003 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2019                 3.1690e+01  3.2760e+00   9.6732 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2020                 3.1628e+01  3.2774e+00   9.6504 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2021                 3.1644e+01  3.2774e+00   9.6551 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis267                  -5.2039e-01  1.3981e-01  -3.7221 0.0002259 ***
## fesisAustria.2016        2.1211e-01  4.8731e-02   4.3527 1.711e-05 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.2378e-01  5.7367e-02   5.6441 3.155e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.6671e-01  6.3975e-02  -4.1689 3.756e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.5896e-01  6.8872e-02  -5.2119 3.004e-07 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.4110e-01  4.9043e-02  -8.9942 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisGreece.2015        -2.7296e-01  4.8361e-02  -5.6442 3.154e-08 ***
## fesisIreland.2015        1.3897e-01  4.9410e-02   2.8126 0.0051563 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.1285e+00  1.0351e-01  10.9030 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -5.0545e-01  1.0566e-01  -4.7837 2.426e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -4.2518e-01  1.0755e-01  -3.9535 9.112e-05 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.7007e-01  4.5018e-02   5.9991 4.453e-09 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.9832e-01  4.9816e-02   5.9884 4.730e-09 ***
## fesisAustralia.2009      2.0459e-01  4.8957e-02   4.1789 3.602e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2013    -1.9157e-01  4.8173e-02  -3.9768 8.295e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   81.501  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 30.903  1 2.712e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09638
## R-squared          0.99757
## Log-lik.(n=462)  456.76777

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + hdd + cdd + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Nov  7 21:09:27 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                    -6.8855e-01  1.8686e-01  -3.6849 0.0002598 ***
## hdd                      1.7076e-04  3.9424e-05   4.3314 1.869e-05 ***
## cdd                      2.4415e-04  1.1458e-04   2.1308 0.0337060 *  
## EU_ETS_05               -2.5700e-02  3.9179e-02  -0.6560 0.5122210    
## EU_ETS_08               -7.3222e-02  3.9189e-02  -1.8685 0.0624183 .  
## EU_ETS_13               -1.2794e-01  3.2249e-02  -3.9672 8.597e-05 ***
## idAustria               -3.4196e+00  2.1991e-01 -15.5500 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.7824e+00  1.6878e-01 -16.4852 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -7.2319e-01  1.5681e-01  -4.6119 5.354e-06 ***
## idDenmark               -3.2919e+00  2.8763e-01 -11.4451 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.4811e+00  3.1868e-01 -10.9236 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -7.1917e-01  2.1573e-01  -3.3336 0.0009361 ***
## idGermany                1.2914e+00  2.6264e-01   4.9169 1.279e-06 ***
## idGreece                -2.1654e+00  1.3617e-01 -15.9019 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.8404e+00  3.2172e-01 -11.9371 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  2.2403e-01  1.9343e-01   1.1582 0.2474734    
## idJapan                  1.9643e+00  3.2820e-01   5.9852 4.754e-09 ***
## idLuxembourg            -9.3207e+00  7.3922e-01 -12.6088 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.5311e+00  1.1476e-01 -13.3409 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.3657e+00  3.2071e-01 -13.6125 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.7360e+00  1.4975e-01 -18.2704 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -3.2828e-01  1.4420e-01  -2.2765 0.0233346 *  
## idSweden                -3.9464e+00  2.1683e-01 -18.2004 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.3055e+00  2.3927e-01 -22.1734 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          5.3727e-01  2.1583e-01   2.4893 0.0131976 *  
## idUnitedStates           3.9606e+00  4.9455e-01   8.0085 1.239e-14 ***
## time2000                 2.3509e+01  3.1512e+00   7.4604 5.286e-13 ***
## time2001                 2.3544e+01  3.1524e+00   7.4686 5.007e-13 ***
## time2002                 2.3586e+01  3.1531e+00   7.4802 4.633e-13 ***
## time2003                 2.3588e+01  3.1552e+00   7.4760 4.764e-13 ***
## time2004                 2.3613e+01  3.1557e+00   7.4826 4.557e-13 ***
## time2005                 2.3635e+01  3.1590e+00   7.4817 4.585e-13 ***
## time2006                 2.3659e+01  3.1609e+00   7.4848 4.490e-13 ***
## time2007                 2.3672e+01  3.1618e+00   7.4871 4.423e-13 ***
## time2008                 2.3665e+01  3.1646e+00   7.4780 4.699e-13 ***
## time2009                 2.3595e+01  3.1662e+00   7.4521 5.587e-13 ***
## time2010                 2.3572e+01  3.1672e+00   7.4424 5.960e-13 ***
## time2011                 2.3596e+01  3.1686e+00   7.4467 5.794e-13 ***
## time2012                 2.3570e+01  3.1697e+00   7.4362 6.214e-13 ***
## time2013                 2.3593e+01  3.1762e+00   7.4279 6.565e-13 ***
## time2014                 2.3565e+01  3.1777e+00   7.4155 7.127e-13 ***
## time2015                 2.3584e+01  3.1778e+00   7.4215 6.851e-13 ***
## time2016                 2.3543e+01  3.1784e+00   7.4073 7.530e-13 ***
## time2017                 2.3549e+01  3.1798e+00   7.4058 7.603e-13 ***
## time2018                 2.3474e+01  3.1816e+00   7.3781 9.137e-13 ***
## time2019                 2.3393e+01  3.1825e+00   7.3505 1.096e-12 ***
## time2020                 2.3329e+01  3.1840e+00   7.3269 1.281e-12 ***
## time2021                 2.3345e+01  3.1837e+00   7.3324 1.236e-12 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.2466e-01  6.4588e-02   5.0266 7.503e-07 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.6564e-01  7.3250e-02  -3.6265 0.0003239 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.6551e-01  7.8497e-02  -4.6563 4.367e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.5516e-01  5.5265e-02  -8.2361 2.468e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.3527e+00  8.7233e-02  15.5068 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -9.5645e-01  6.2336e-02 -15.3436 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.6662e-01  5.0983e-02   5.2296 2.726e-07 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.7260e-01  5.5907e-02   4.8759 1.557e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   94.909  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 58.314  1 2.232e-14 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11038
## R-squared          0.99676
## Log-lik.(n=462)  390.62448

Growth Rates

Note: As Moritz mentioned, when looking at growth rates what we understand as “breaks” are represented by the grey impulse lines. I have therefore excluded the plots analogous to the right-hand ones above.

AR = 0

p = 0.1

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.1; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Wed Nov  2 17:15:13 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## d.lgdp_wb            -3.52877750  2.57307835  -1.3714 0.1707820    
## d.lpop               -1.79968827  0.87259324  -2.0625 0.0396157 *  
## d.lgdp_wb_sq          0.07119627  0.04830702   1.4738 0.1410788    
## idAustria            -0.00447962  0.02137044  -0.2096 0.8340411    
## idBelgium            -0.03111743  0.02119235  -1.4683 0.1425645    
## idCanada             -0.02249050  0.01988647  -1.1309 0.2585531    
## idDenmark            -0.04099185  0.03965142  -1.0338 0.3016649    
## idFinland            -0.04098160  0.02241553  -1.8283 0.0680308 .  
## idFrance             -0.03478564  0.02146555  -1.6205 0.1056699    
## idGermany            -0.04371221  0.02223644  -1.9658 0.0498068 *  
## idGreece             -0.03563352  0.02247223  -1.5857 0.1133681    
## idIreland            -0.01372893  0.02130830  -0.6443 0.5196401    
## idItaly              -0.02949437  0.02256791  -1.3069 0.1917673    
## idJapan              -0.01386973  0.02273974  -0.6099 0.5421484    
## idLuxembourg          0.01720834  0.02442275   0.7046 0.4813445    
## idNetherlands        -0.01821364  0.02097618  -0.8683 0.3855945    
## idNewZealand          0.13105527  0.04958286   2.6432 0.0084392 ** 
## idPortugal           -0.00626995  0.02424160  -0.2586 0.7960029    
## idSpain               0.00992243  0.02420731   0.4099 0.6820375    
## idSweden             -0.02084097  0.02132454  -0.9773 0.3288230    
## idSwitzerland        -0.00065789  0.02048982  -0.0321 0.9743969    
## idUnitedKingdom      -0.05506505  0.02101502  -2.6203 0.0090198 ** 
## idUnitedStates       -0.02779502  0.02086170  -1.3323 0.1832778    
## time1990              0.05074356  0.02578638   1.9678 0.0495696 *  
## time1991              0.07934734  0.02631886   3.0148 0.0026853 ** 
## time1992              0.03067980  0.02538812   1.2084 0.2273816    
## time1993             -0.00126817  0.02563791  -0.0495 0.9605662    
## time1994              0.06069908  0.02596174   2.3380 0.0197305 *  
## time1995              0.05396201  0.02586718   2.0861 0.0374111 *  
## time1996              0.03553064  0.02766092   1.2845 0.1994856    
## time1997              0.03151570  0.02652430   1.1882 0.2352557    
## time1998              0.04246487  0.02602112   1.6319 0.1032437    
## time1999              0.02100078  0.02582443   0.8132 0.4164346    
## time2000              0.03197051  0.02680926   1.1925 0.2335537    
## time2001              0.06587089  0.02563982   2.5691 0.0104495 *  
## time2002              0.06209997  0.02590993   2.3968 0.0168611 *  
## time2003              0.07040485  0.02549057   2.7620 0.0059299 ** 
## time2004              0.02451962  0.02603853   0.9417 0.3467613    
## time2005              0.04689469  0.02606332   1.7993 0.0725054 .  
## time2006             -0.00240451  0.02688133  -0.0894 0.9287564    
## time2007              0.00436215  0.02621146   0.1664 0.8678841    
## time2008             -0.00946236  0.02574350  -0.3676 0.7133352    
## time2009              0.00660148  0.02638134   0.2502 0.8024972    
## time2010              0.07179374  0.02640765   2.7187 0.0067537 ** 
## time2011             -0.04126811  0.02500963  -1.6501 0.0994748 .  
## time2012              0.02897744  0.02465442   1.1753 0.2403466    
## time2013             -0.03335356  0.02527041  -1.3199 0.1874085    
## time2014             -0.04477467  0.02553034  -1.7538 0.0800042 .  
## time2015              0.02191266  0.02664596   0.8224 0.4112133    
## time2016              0.00010029  0.02621527   0.0038 0.9969489    
## time2017              0.02897265  0.02600716   1.1140 0.2657368    
## time2018             -0.02098163  0.02566879  -0.8174 0.4140416    
## time2019             -0.04242588  0.02554036  -1.6611 0.0972361 .  
## time2020             -0.04576399  0.02612001  -1.7521 0.0802992 .  
## time2021              0.05635637  0.02665271   2.1145 0.0349078 *  
## iis61                -0.22559561  0.08230229  -2.7411 0.0063159 ** 
## iis117                1.12627905  0.08214505  13.7109 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis176                0.26446531  0.08855462   2.9865 0.0029433 ** 
## iis181                0.42486141  0.08416927   5.0477 6.021e-07 ***
## iis191                0.42669858  0.08356212   5.1064 4.482e-07 ***
## iis210               -0.23872267  0.08388104  -2.8460 0.0045867 ** 
## iis224               -0.20017798  0.08431608  -2.3741 0.0179197 *  
## iis225                0.30454770  0.08412773   3.6201 0.0003207 ***
## iis236                0.21537384  0.08238937   2.6141 0.0091824 ** 
## iis239                0.26738264  0.08297112   3.2226 0.0013427 ** 
## iis248               -0.40874151  0.08220715  -4.9721 8.772e-07 ***
## iis249                0.44271189  0.08233006   5.3773 1.104e-07 ***
## iis265               -0.25363111  0.08229912  -3.0818 0.0021566 ** 
## iis270                0.31109080  0.08226124   3.7817 0.0001721 ***
## iis411               -0.29088726  0.08278711  -3.5137 0.0004770 ***
## iis412               -0.47174723  0.08300384  -5.6834 2.107e-08 ***
## iis413               -0.23767890  0.08363401  -2.8419 0.0046449 ** 
## iis414               -0.51000663  0.08305813  -6.1404 1.543e-09 ***
## iis415               -1.07379843  0.08321243 -12.9043 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                0.24615224  0.08327066   2.9561 0.0032448 ** 
## iis418                0.51684791  0.08278451   6.2433 8.365e-10 ***
## iis419                0.96469023  0.08291304  11.6350 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis430               -0.32494825  0.08298742  -3.9156 0.0001011 ***
## iis432               -0.38155816  0.08313314  -4.5897 5.461e-06 ***
## iis433               -0.55011857  0.08288723  -6.6370 7.455e-11 ***
## iis471               -0.26629107  0.08326449  -3.1981 0.0014598 ** 
## iis474                0.22004386  0.08263740   2.6628 0.0079687 ** 
## iis485               -0.34550384  0.08265041  -4.1803 3.368e-05 ***
## iis490                0.18379103  0.08271114   2.2221 0.0266688 *  
## iis500                0.36244355  0.08302314   4.3656 1.505e-05 ***
## iis501               -0.31476454  0.08248554  -3.8160 0.0001504 ***
## iis504               -0.22357686  0.08240379  -2.7132 0.0068651 ** 
## iis514                0.23019385  0.08268006   2.7842 0.0055447 ** 
## iis600               -0.25072137  0.08300000  -3.0207 0.0026344 ** 
## iis619               -0.21811036  0.09325881  -2.3388 0.0196917 *  
## fesisDenmark.1996    -0.07753176  0.04184754  -1.8527 0.0644383 .  
## fesisDenmark.2013     0.30221512  0.08353418   3.6179 0.0003234 ***
## fesisDenmark.2014    -0.40203972  0.09903261  -4.0597 5.600e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2016     0.34189587  0.09907369   3.4509 0.0006000 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017    -0.22126517  0.09338868  -2.3693 0.0181537 *  
## fesisDenmark.2021     0.20924450  0.09344146   2.2393 0.0255199 *  
## fesisSpain.2008      -0.07462284  0.03103311  -2.4046 0.0165066 *  
## fesisPortugal.2018   -0.19848792  0.04368935  -4.5432 6.766e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.29198905  0.06733658  -4.3363 1.713e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996  0.46624775  0.07442012   6.2651 7.341e-10 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.29636520  0.05998623  -4.9406 1.025e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   20.7304  1 5.287e-06 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  9.1712  1  0.002459 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.07880
## R-squared          0.71646
## Log-lik.(n=672)  804.45032

p = 0.05

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.05; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:25:27 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                            coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## d.lgdp_wb            -3.8432319  2.7911062  -1.3770 0.1690497    
## d.lpop               -1.0824086  0.9351879  -1.1574 0.2475692    
## d.lgdp_wb_sq          0.0784879  0.0523321   1.4998 0.1342021    
## idAustria            -0.0043563  0.0229622  -0.1897 0.8495963    
## idBelgium            -0.0238062  0.0229999  -1.0351 0.3010671    
## idCanada             -0.0198813  0.0216239  -0.9194 0.3582554    
## idDenmark            -0.0894114  0.0264212  -3.3841 0.0007617 ***
## idFinland             0.0185737  0.0289137   0.6424 0.5208737    
## idFrance             -0.0358180  0.0231166  -1.5494 0.1218116    
## idGermany            -0.0343800  0.0240902  -1.4271 0.1540713    
## idGreece             -0.0253042  0.0243368  -1.0398 0.2988831    
## idIreland            -0.0132994  0.0232037  -0.5732 0.5667550    
## idItaly              -0.0189702  0.0244313  -0.7765 0.4377831    
## idJapan              -0.0032479  0.0246142  -0.1320 0.8950660    
## idLuxembourg          0.0144000  0.0493209   0.2920 0.7704162    
## idNetherlands        -0.0115316  0.0227722  -0.5064 0.6127718    
## idNewZealand          0.1283675  0.0538924   2.3819 0.0175396 *  
## idPortugal            0.0040208  0.0409846   0.0981 0.9218815    
## idSpain              -0.0295422  0.0226445  -1.3046 0.1925378    
## idSweden             -0.0148772  0.0227797  -0.6531 0.5139546    
## idSwitzerland         0.0042233  0.0222594   0.1897 0.8495863    
## idUnitedKingdom      -0.0484720  0.0228066  -2.1254 0.0339734 *  
## idUnitedStates       -0.0253576  0.0226692  -1.1186 0.2637710    
## time1990              0.0417126  0.0281294   1.4829 0.1386417    
## time1991              0.0667168  0.0287850   2.3178 0.0208047 *  
## time1992              0.0114815  0.0275626   0.4166 0.6771529    
## time1993             -0.0107258  0.0273465  -0.3922 0.6950402    
## time1994              0.0555114  0.0279249   1.9879 0.0472882 *  
## time1995              0.0403820  0.0278023   1.4525 0.1469045    
## time1996              0.0335372  0.0286447   1.1708 0.2421532    
## time1997              0.0105107  0.0284937   0.3689 0.7123522    
## time1998              0.0285365  0.0281989   1.0120 0.3119679    
## time1999              0.0177944  0.0277823   0.6405 0.5220997    
## time2000              0.0061887  0.0286205   0.2162 0.8288801    
## time2001              0.0524387  0.0277966   1.8865 0.0597183 .  
## time2002              0.0482240  0.0280851   1.7171 0.0864933 .  
## time2003              0.0568270  0.0276185   2.0576 0.0400715 *  
## time2004              0.0098534  0.0281838   0.3496 0.7267554    
## time2005              0.0351738  0.0282187   1.2465 0.2130888    
## time2006             -0.0139458  0.0290969  -0.4793 0.6319112    
## time2007             -0.0073036  0.0283607  -0.2575 0.7968633    
## time2008             -0.0228463  0.0277597  -0.8230 0.4108393    
## time2009             -0.0147459  0.0280803  -0.5251 0.5996891    
## time2010              0.0605209  0.0278612   2.1722 0.0302369 *  
## time2011             -0.0519584  0.0270764  -1.9190 0.0554743 .  
## time2012              0.0176982  0.0266264   0.6647 0.5065123    
## time2013             -0.0440767  0.0272989  -1.6146 0.1069349    
## time2014             -0.0627149  0.0273849  -2.2901 0.0223671 *  
## time2015              0.0121415  0.0280985   0.4321 0.6658239    
## time2016             -0.0015402  0.0280042  -0.0550 0.9561586    
## time2017              0.0157509  0.0279384   0.5638 0.5731234    
## time2018             -0.0323982  0.0275804  -1.1747 0.2405975    
## time2019             -0.0635160  0.0272135  -2.3340 0.0199322 *  
## time2020             -0.0505352  0.0281828  -1.7931 0.0734677 .  
## time2021              0.0550188  0.0283819   1.9385 0.0530384 .  
## iis117                1.1202750  0.0893760  12.5344 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis176                0.3227506  0.0901609   3.5797 0.0003724 ***
## iis181                0.3917662  0.0903879   4.3343 1.720e-05 ***
## iis191                0.4040735  0.0901728   4.4811 8.927e-06 ***
## iis225                0.2782756  0.0894078   3.1124 0.0019456 ** 
## iis248               -0.3912473  0.0907650  -4.3106 1.909e-05 ***
## iis249                0.4589080  0.0908987   5.0486 5.945e-07 ***
## iis270                0.3199654  0.0894366   3.5776 0.0003754 ***
## iis415               -1.0702169  0.0912171 -11.7326 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                0.2606306  0.0911511   2.8593 0.0043961 ** 
## iis418                0.5215733  0.0905825   5.7580 1.372e-08 ***
## iis419                0.9708079  0.0907494  10.6977 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis430               -0.3311553  0.0907004  -3.6511 0.0002844 ***
## iis432               -0.3886754  0.0906395  -4.2881 2.106e-05 ***
## iis433               -0.5651607  0.0905668  -6.2403 8.362e-10 ***
## iis485               -0.3674555  0.0900282  -4.0816 5.092e-05 ***
## iis500                0.3562137  0.0897519   3.9689 8.114e-05 ***
## iis501               -0.3023015  0.0895367  -3.3763 0.0007832 ***
## fesisDenmark.2013     0.2801814  0.0901517   3.1079 0.0019753 ** 
## fesisDenmark.2014    -0.2872025  0.0932812  -3.0789 0.0021746 ** 
## fesisFinland.2005    -0.0696047  0.0321927  -2.1621 0.0310110 *  
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -0.3750972  0.0628956  -5.9638 4.255e-09 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998  0.3768045  0.0491910   7.6600 7.694e-14 ***
## fesisPortugal.1996   -0.2794163  0.0953257  -2.9312 0.0035081 ** 
## fesisPortugal.1997    0.3008927  0.0904866   3.3253 0.0009383 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018   -0.2208170  0.0481615  -4.5849 5.551e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.2921526  0.0731706  -3.9928 7.358e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996  0.4686600  0.0807602   5.8031 1.065e-08 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.3048804  0.0650021  -4.6903 3.395e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   20.187  1 7.021e-06 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 23.608  1 1.181e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.08572
## R-squared          0.65448
## Log-lik.(n=672)  739.38577

p = 0.01

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:24:55 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                            coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## d.lgdp_wb            -5.4418267  3.0523402  -1.7828 0.0751174 .  
## d.lpop               -1.1033235  0.9975867  -1.1060 0.2691723    
## d.lgdp_wb_sq          0.1064245  0.0572415   1.8592 0.0634847 .  
## idAustria            -0.0040304  0.0249619  -0.1615 0.8717829    
## idBelgium            -0.0237057  0.0249995  -0.9482 0.3433851    
## idCanada             -0.0206666  0.0235467  -0.8777 0.3804667    
## idDenmark            -0.0706632  0.0256794  -2.7517 0.0061066 ** 
## idFinland            -0.0156613  0.0259711  -0.6030 0.5467191    
## idFrance             -0.0372884  0.0251274  -1.4840 0.1383407    
## idGermany            -0.0362858  0.0261437  -1.3879 0.1656708    
## idGreece             -0.0260446  0.0264205  -0.9858 0.3246403    
## idIreland            -0.0065683  0.0252536  -0.2601 0.7948804    
## idItaly              -0.0206859  0.0265156  -0.7801 0.4356156    
## idJapan              -0.0053149  0.0267025  -0.1990 0.8422975    
## idLuxembourg          0.0178230  0.0536443   0.3322 0.7398206    
## idNetherlands        -0.0116782  0.0247536  -0.4718 0.6372569    
## idNewZealand          0.0058883  0.0243639   0.2417 0.8091098    
## idPortugal           -0.0028298  0.0274954  -0.1029 0.9180608    
## idSpain              -0.0215998  0.0244643  -0.8829 0.3776384    
## idSweden             -0.0241579  0.0246259  -0.9810 0.3269894    
## idSwitzerland         0.0040860  0.0242260   0.1687 0.8661182    
## idUnitedKingdom      -0.0501460  0.0247920  -2.0227 0.0435494 *  
## idUnitedStates       -0.0292291  0.0246863  -1.1840 0.2368737    
## time1990              0.0523241  0.0304377   1.7191 0.0861194 .  
## time1991              0.0910474  0.0307427   2.9616 0.0031814 ** 
## time1992              0.0196111  0.0298463   0.6571 0.5113885    
## time1993             -0.0163808  0.0294475  -0.5563 0.5782313    
## time1994              0.0517845  0.0301514   1.7175 0.0864066 .  
## time1995              0.0366502  0.0300198   1.2209 0.2226144    
## time1996              0.0387991  0.0305512   1.2700 0.2045872    
## time1997             -0.0030019  0.0306480  -0.0979 0.9220054    
## time1998              0.0343335  0.0305640   1.1233 0.2617460    
## time1999              0.0152291  0.0303146   0.5024 0.6155915    
## time2000              0.0158204  0.0308288   0.5132 0.6080199    
## time2001              0.0568392  0.0301083   1.8878 0.0595311 .  
## time2002              0.0525201  0.0304063   1.7273 0.0846324 .  
## time2003              0.0627381  0.0298868   2.0992 0.0362165 *  
## time2004              0.0170505  0.0305109   0.5588 0.5764835    
## time2005              0.0398217  0.0305556   1.3033 0.1929880    
## time2006             -0.0072328  0.0315307  -0.2294 0.8186457    
## time2007             -0.0032634  0.0307015  -0.1063 0.9153845    
## time2008             -0.0218720  0.0300161  -0.7287 0.4664833    
## time2009             -0.0164525  0.0303270  -0.5425 0.5876718    
## time2010              0.0453033  0.0298347   1.5185 0.1294210    
## time2011             -0.0374846  0.0289179  -1.2962 0.1953885    
## time2012              0.0180538  0.0288293   0.6262 0.5314004    
## time2013             -0.0451354  0.0290291  -1.5548 0.1205129    
## time2014             -0.0604795  0.0296848  -2.0374 0.0420482 *  
## time2015             -0.0031271  0.0302165  -0.1035 0.9176095    
## time2016             -0.0015748  0.0303683  -0.0519 0.9586600    
## time2017              0.0183690  0.0302875   0.6065 0.5444200    
## time2018             -0.0313140  0.0299072  -1.0470 0.2955014    
## time2019             -0.0627146  0.0295072  -2.1254 0.0339605 *  
## time2020             -0.0537865  0.0304403  -1.7670 0.0777435 .  
## time2021              0.0580309  0.0308379   1.8818 0.0603457 .  
## iis117                1.1135444  0.0972737  11.4475 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis181                0.3717882  0.0974289   3.8160 0.0001497 ***
## iis191                0.3834648  0.0974210   3.9362 9.248e-05 ***
## iis248               -0.4273727  0.0972777  -4.3933 1.319e-05 ***
## iis249                0.4223335  0.0974246   4.3350 1.709e-05 ***
## iis270                0.3164127  0.0974022   3.2485 0.0012248 ** 
## iis415               -1.2523071  0.1172898 -10.6770 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                0.3321634  0.1179656   2.8158 0.0050258 ** 
## iis419                1.0145509  0.0987400  10.2750 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis433               -0.5139767  0.0985113  -5.2174 2.501e-07 ***
## iis500                0.3621545  0.0974757   3.7153 0.0002219 ***
## iis588                0.4077068  0.0973982   4.1860 3.264e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -0.3669377  0.0684444  -5.3611 1.181e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998  0.5575433  0.0840039   6.6371 7.154e-11 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 -0.2327918  0.0729374  -3.1917 0.0014884 ** 
## fesisPortugal.2018   -0.1924061  0.0511746  -3.7598 0.0001867 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   21.739  1 3.124e-06 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.588  1 0.0002276 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09336
## R-squared          0.58105
## Log-lik.(n=672)  675.48611

p = 0.001

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:26:12 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                        coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value    
## d.lgdp_wb       -2.87073667  3.28056162 -0.8751  0.381878    
## d.lpop          -1.27618678  1.08945869 -1.1714  0.241897    
## d.lgdp_wb_sq     0.05943111  0.06161337  0.9646  0.335137    
## idAustria       -0.00758397  0.02747091 -0.2761  0.782586    
## idBelgium       -0.02695053  0.02751560 -0.9795  0.327739    
## idCanada        -0.02087090  0.02596293 -0.8039  0.421783    
## idDenmark       -0.05098038  0.02784017 -1.8312  0.067561 .  
## idFinland       -0.02014383  0.02817883 -0.7149  0.474971    
## idFrance        -0.02814111  0.02747702 -1.0242  0.306161    
## idGermany       -0.03714350  0.02878864 -1.2902  0.197465    
## idGreece        -0.02968381  0.02905708 -1.0216  0.307390    
## idIreland       -0.01507371  0.02771165 -0.5439  0.586676    
## idItaly         -0.02292748  0.02918005 -0.7857  0.432334    
## idJapan         -0.00678715  0.02939191 -0.2309  0.817455    
## idLuxembourg    -0.02473997  0.03025931 -0.8176  0.413906    
## idNetherlands   -0.01410312  0.02725778 -0.5174  0.605066    
## idNewZealand     0.01368808  0.02661715  0.5143  0.607258    
## idPortugal      -0.03148675  0.02933853 -1.0732  0.283596    
## idSpain         -0.02310824  0.02695356 -0.8573  0.391596    
## idSweden        -0.01585265  0.02695444 -0.5881  0.556664    
## idSwitzerland    0.00222975  0.02669811  0.0835  0.933468    
## idUnitedKingdom -0.05033718  0.02732016 -1.8425  0.065888 .  
## idUnitedStates  -0.02415662  0.02719037 -0.8884  0.374662    
## time1990         0.05439028  0.03332971  1.6319  0.103220    
## time1991         0.09401640  0.03361635  2.7967  0.005325 ** 
## time1992         0.02329712  0.03262327  0.7141  0.475423    
## time1993        -0.01342437  0.03220646 -0.4168  0.676955    
## time1994         0.03614945  0.03299528  1.0956  0.273689    
## time1995         0.04114919  0.03335005  1.2339  0.217731    
## time1996         0.05856048  0.03257310  1.7978  0.072700 .  
## time1997         0.02259470  0.03354493  0.6736  0.500843    
## time1998         0.05028364  0.03328188  1.5108  0.131347    
## time1999         0.02533983  0.03316506  0.7641  0.445132    
## time2000         0.02676564  0.03370365  0.7941  0.427419    
## time2001         0.05774426  0.03313198  1.7429  0.081863 .  
## time2002         0.05350852  0.03345446  1.5994  0.110240    
## time2003         0.06396208  0.03291053  1.9435  0.052414 .  
## time2004         0.01779454  0.03360038  0.5296  0.596587    
## time2005         0.02093179  0.03326967  0.6292  0.529483    
## time2006         0.03198598  0.03394153  0.9424  0.346369    
## time2007        -0.00264912  0.03380958 -0.0784  0.937572    
## time2008        -0.01950832  0.03303425 -0.5905  0.555042    
## time2009        -0.01440456  0.03337408 -0.4316  0.666178    
## time2010         0.04735803  0.03284709  1.4418  0.149880    
## time2011        -0.03523984  0.03184101 -1.1067  0.268841    
## time2012         0.02049676  0.03173830  0.6458  0.518648    
## time2013        -0.04334867  0.03196610 -1.3561  0.175575    
## time2014        -0.05910796  0.03268936 -1.8082  0.071072 .  
## time2015        -0.00229135  0.03327726 -0.0689  0.945127    
## time2016         0.00025917  0.03340175  0.0078  0.993812    
## time2017         0.02001768  0.03334698  0.6003  0.548539    
## time2018        -0.03900456  0.03286241 -1.1869  0.235727    
## time2019        -0.07056447  0.03242412 -2.1763  0.029916 *  
## time2020        -0.06265709  0.03344480 -1.8734  0.061484 .  
## time2021         0.04974012  0.03389620  1.4674  0.142776    
## iis117           1.11343097  0.10723464 10.3831 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis412          -0.42562096  0.10790008 -3.9446 8.922e-05 ***
## iis414          -0.47039519  0.10778592 -4.3642 1.499e-05 ***
## iis415          -1.05183971  0.10808464 -9.7316 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418           0.55817623  0.10767043  5.1841 2.956e-07 ***
## iis419           1.00713247  0.10783529  9.3395 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis433          -0.52318182  0.10765892 -4.8596 1.497e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   28.230  1 1.077e-07 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 46.791  1 7.896e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10295
## R-squared          0.48292
## Log-lik.(n=672)  605.26966

AR = 1

p = 0.1

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.1; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Wed Nov  2 17:15:33 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                  -7.7968e-02  2.4910e-02  -3.1300 0.0018436 ** 
## d.lgdp_wb            -4.0218e+03  1.1709e+03  -3.4347 0.0006393 ***
## d.lpop               -7.3415e+00  1.5002e+00  -4.8937 1.312e-06 ***
## d.lgdp_wb_sq          6.7259e+01  1.9563e+01   3.4381 0.0006314 ***
## idAustria            -5.2610e-03  1.8366e-02  -0.2865 0.7746422    
## idBelgium            -2.7130e-02  1.8216e-02  -1.4893 0.1369988    
## idCanada             -1.8118e-02  1.8214e-02  -0.9947 0.3203098    
## idDenmark            -9.4205e-02  2.6471e-02  -3.5588 0.0004058 ***
## idFinland            -1.3431e-02  2.4735e-02  -0.5430 0.5873533    
## idFrance              1.2913e-01  7.4853e-02   1.7251 0.0850904 .  
## idGermany            -2.7477e-02  1.8224e-02  -1.5077 0.1322099    
## idGreece             -2.8179e-02  1.8219e-02  -1.5467 0.1225377    
## idIreland            -1.3698e-02  1.8211e-02  -0.7522 0.4522757    
## idItaly              -1.9255e-02  1.8213e-02  -1.0572 0.2908916    
## idJapan              -5.9927e-04  1.8206e-02  -0.0329 0.9737538    
## idLuxembourg         -3.2932e-02  2.4686e-02  -1.3340 0.1827592    
## idNetherlands        -6.4844e-03  1.8209e-02  -0.3561 0.7218936    
## idNewZealand          1.3250e-01  5.3585e-02   2.4726 0.0137225 *  
## idPortugal            1.6413e-02  2.0097e-02   0.8167 0.4144707    
## idSpain               2.0060e-02  2.2294e-02   0.8998 0.3686479    
## idSweden             -1.0219e-02  2.2307e-02  -0.4581 0.6470468    
## idSwitzerland         4.4689e-03  1.8228e-02   0.2452 0.8064221    
## idUnitedKingdom      -4.8027e-02  1.8244e-02  -2.6325 0.0087200 ** 
## idUnitedStates       -1.5094e-02  1.8211e-02  -0.8288 0.4075823    
## time1991             -6.6764e+00  2.0136e+00  -3.3156 0.0009764 ***
## time1992              3.0297e+00  8.5417e-01   3.5470 0.0004239 ***
## time1993              8.5318e+00  2.4898e+00   3.4268 0.0006578 ***
## time1994              1.4091e+01  4.1096e+00   3.4287 0.0006533 ***
## time1995              8.4402e+00  2.4472e+00   3.4489 0.0006073 ***
## time1996              5.0904e+00  1.4643e+00   3.4764 0.0005495 ***
## time1997              1.2919e+01  3.7773e+00   3.4201 0.0006737 ***
## time1998              1.1585e+01  3.3849e+00   3.4225 0.0006680 ***
## time1999              1.4906e+01  4.3717e+00   3.4096 0.0006998 ***
## time2000              1.4626e+01  4.2842e+00   3.4139 0.0006890 ***
## time2001              5.1639e+00  1.4803e+00   3.4885 0.0005257 ***
## time2002              8.4637e+00  2.4550e+00   3.4476 0.0006101 ***
## time2003              5.0725e+00  1.4567e+00   3.4822 0.0005380 ***
## time2004              8.3977e+00  2.4534e+00   3.4229 0.0006670 ***
## time2005              8.6058e+00  2.5070e+00   3.4327 0.0006438 ***
## time2006              6.9697e+00  2.0371e+00   3.4215 0.0006705 ***
## time2007              5.4548e+00  1.5874e+00   3.4363 0.0006356 ***
## time2008              2.6598e+00  7.6631e-01   3.4709 0.0005606 ***
## time2009             -7.7313e+00  2.2991e+00  -3.3628 0.0008269 ***
## time2010              8.1107e+00  2.3499e+00   3.4515 0.0006015 ***
## time2011              8.0183e+00  2.3549e+00   3.4050 0.0007114 ***
## time2012              4.5421e+00  1.3094e+00   3.4689 0.0005648 ***
## time2013              5.8385e+00  1.7096e+00   3.4152 0.0006857 ***
## time2014              7.0343e+00  2.0732e+00   3.3929 0.0007428 ***
## time2015              1.6763e+00  4.7554e-01   3.5252 0.0004595 ***
## time2016              2.5156e+00  7.1849e-01   3.5013 0.0005017 ***
## time2017              7.3525e+00  2.1405e+00   3.4349 0.0006387 ***
## time2018              5.7836e+00  1.6898e+00   3.4227 0.0006675 ***
## iis33                -2.3789e-01  7.4836e-02  -3.1787 0.0015647 ** 
## iis125                3.4280e-01  7.7187e-02   4.4411 1.088e-05 ***
## iis130                3.8653e-01  7.7893e-02   4.9623 9.377e-07 ***
## iis140                4.6030e-01  7.7267e-02   5.9572 4.654e-09 ***
## iis147                3.1306e-01  7.7442e-02   4.0425 6.066e-05 ***
## iis151               -2.9083e-01  8.2659e-02  -3.5184 0.0004712 ***
## iis153               -3.4370e-01  8.2394e-02  -4.1714 3.532e-05 ***
## iis158                1.7833e-01  7.6764e-02   2.3230 0.0205511 *  
## iis161                2.3194e-01  7.7355e-02   2.9984 0.0028405 ** 
## iis170               -3.2351e-01  9.0254e-02  -3.5845 0.0003687 ***
## iis171                5.0543e-01  9.1320e-02   5.5347 4.890e-08 ***
## iis188               -2.1531e-01  7.5114e-02  -2.8665 0.0043139 ** 
## iis189               -2.9301e-01  7.5216e-02  -3.8956 0.0001104 ***
## iis194                3.0067e-01  7.5026e-02   4.0075 7.006e-05 ***
## iis197               -1.6961e-01  7.4993e-02  -2.2616 0.0241225 *  
## iis376               -2.5813e-01  7.6517e-02  -3.3736 0.0007958 ***
## iis377               -4.6265e-01  7.6802e-02  -6.0239 3.169e-09 ***
## iis378               -2.4700e-01  7.8062e-02  -3.1641 0.0016440 ** 
## iis379               -4.9282e-01  7.6885e-02  -6.4099 3.201e-10 ***
## iis380               -1.0805e+00  7.7565e-02 -13.9301 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis382                2.8407e-01  7.6619e-02   3.7076 0.0002311 ***
## iis383                5.7262e-01  7.6877e-02   7.4485 3.810e-13 ***
## iis384                1.0463e+00  7.7797e-02  13.4485 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis386                1.9314e-01  7.6477e-02   2.5254 0.0118444 *  
## iis391                1.8355e-01  7.6635e-02   2.3951 0.0169569 *  
## iis397               -3.8661e-01  7.9563e-02  -4.8591 1.551e-06 ***
## iis398               -5.8543e-01  7.9641e-02  -7.3510 7.416e-13 ***
## iis441                1.9850e-01  1.0485e-01   1.8931 0.0588854 .  
## iis446               -1.8542e-01  7.7236e-02  -2.4007 0.0167034 *  
## iis471               -2.7932e-01  7.5928e-02  -3.6788 0.0002580 ***
## iis474                2.1361e-01  7.5287e-02   2.8373 0.0047228 ** 
## iis478               -2.5777e-01  7.5247e-02  -3.4256 0.0006605 ***
## iis485               -3.5481e-01  7.5497e-02  -4.6997 3.318e-06 ***
## iis490                1.8489e-01  7.5285e-02   2.4559 0.0143695 *  
## iis502               -2.3695e-01  7.6504e-02  -3.0972 0.0020559 ** 
## iis516               -1.5542e-01  9.0215e-02  -1.7227 0.0855142 .  
## iis517                2.2523e-01  7.7816e-02   2.8944 0.0039541 ** 
## iis519               -2.2234e-01  7.7667e-02  -2.8627 0.0043650 ** 
## iis533                3.4679e-01  7.6500e-02   4.5332 7.175e-06 ***
## iis534               -2.7913e-01  7.6512e-02  -3.6481 0.0002900 ***
## iis537               -2.2793e-01  7.5867e-02  -3.0043 0.0027864 ** 
## iis547                3.7435e-01  9.0332e-02   4.1442 3.964e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2003     2.0663e-01  7.7171e-02   2.6775 0.0076446 ** 
## fesisDenmark.2004    -2.6437e-01  7.7181e-02  -3.4254 0.0006611 ***
## fesisDenmark.2016     2.0030e-01  4.3907e-02   4.5620 6.290e-06 ***
## fesisFinland.2005    -1.1236e-01  5.6230e-02  -1.9982 0.0461965 *  
## fesisFinland.2009     2.1343e-01  7.3859e-02   2.8897 0.0040125 ** 
## fesisFinland.2011    -2.9214e-01  7.3766e-02  -3.9604 8.495e-05 ***
## fesisFinland.2013     1.7018e-01  5.7684e-02   2.9503 0.0033139 ** 
## fesisFrance.1992     -1.4182e-01  7.5180e-02  -1.8864 0.0597789 .  
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -3.1613e-01  7.6726e-02  -4.1203 4.384e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2014  3.3896e-01  7.9674e-02   4.2544 2.475e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.0870e-01  6.7233e-02  -4.5916 5.490e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996  3.7044e-01  8.5538e-02   4.3307 1.775e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -1.5647e-01  7.7864e-02  -2.0095 0.0449883 *  
## fesisNewZealand.2009 -2.1619e-01  5.7178e-02  -3.7810 0.0001738 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2011  2.3126e-01  7.3760e-02   3.1353 0.0018113 ** 
## fesisNewZealand.2013 -1.7145e-01  6.3872e-02  -2.6843 0.0074931 ** 
## fesisNewZealand.2017  1.8191e-01  4.9396e-02   3.6826 0.0002543 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018   -2.0588e-01  4.0160e-02  -5.1264 4.134e-07 ***
## fesisSpain.2008      -1.4268e-01  5.5205e-02  -2.5845 0.0100144 *  
## fesisSpain.2011       1.0282e-01  5.7598e-02   1.7852 0.0747971 .  
## fesisSweden.2010     -1.4429e-01  5.5320e-02  -2.6083 0.0093541 ** 
## fesisSweden.2013      1.6126e-01  5.7677e-02   2.7959 0.0053622 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df p-value  
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   2.2459  1 0.13397  
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 4.2218  1 0.03991 *
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.07168
## R-squared          0.74850
## Log-lik.(n=651)  850.04008

p = 0.05

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.05; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:34:34 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                  -9.3814e-02  2.7892e-02  -3.3635 0.0008214 ***
## d.lgdp_wb            -4.8551e+03  1.3394e+03  -3.6248 0.0003152 ***
## d.lpop               -6.4208e+00  1.7322e+00  -3.7067 0.0002306 ***
## d.lgdp_wb_sq          8.1181e+01  2.2378e+01   3.6278 0.0003116 ***
## idAustria            -1.3048e-02  2.1256e-02  -0.6138 0.5395608    
## idBelgium            -2.7524e-02  2.1266e-02  -1.2943 0.1960972    
## idCanada             -1.8461e-02  2.1263e-02  -0.8682 0.3856531    
## idDenmark            -1.0130e-01  2.2099e-02  -4.5839 5.616e-06 ***
## idFinland             1.4917e-02  2.7227e-02   0.5479 0.5839946    
## idFrance              1.2344e-01  8.7362e-02   1.4129 0.1582226    
## idGermany            -2.7988e-02  2.1274e-02  -1.3156 0.1888333    
## idGreece             -2.8625e-02  2.1269e-02  -1.3458 0.1788903    
## idIreland            -1.3981e-02  2.1261e-02  -0.6576 0.5110544    
## idItaly              -1.9580e-02  2.1263e-02  -0.9209 0.3575186    
## idJapan              -5.9333e-04  2.1255e-02  -0.0279 0.9777395    
## idLuxembourg         -5.3942e-02  2.7232e-02  -1.9808 0.0480936 *  
## idNetherlands        -6.6834e-03  2.1258e-02  -0.3144 0.7533352    
## idNewZealand          1.3487e-01  6.2480e-02   2.1586 0.0313005 *  
## idPortugal            2.2986e-02  2.2566e-02   1.0186 0.3088079    
## idSpain              -2.8665e-02  2.1445e-02  -1.3367 0.1818537    
## idSweden             -1.5078e-02  2.1648e-02  -0.6965 0.4863950    
## idSwitzerland         5.0429e-03  2.1279e-02   0.2370 0.8127504    
## idUnitedKingdom      -4.8772e-02  2.1295e-02  -2.2903 0.0223709 *  
## idUnitedStates       -1.5376e-02  2.1261e-02  -0.7232 0.4698358    
## time1991             -8.1163e+00  2.3034e+00  -3.5236 0.0004600 ***
## time1992              3.6236e+00  9.7683e-01   3.7096 0.0002280 ***
## time1993              1.0308e+01  2.8478e+00   3.6195 0.0003215 ***
## time1994              1.7013e+01  4.7007e+00   3.6192 0.0003219 ***
## time1995              1.0179e+01  2.7991e+00   3.6367 0.0003013 ***
## time1996              6.1227e+00  1.6748e+00   3.6558 0.0002801 ***
## time1997              1.5611e+01  4.3204e+00   3.6133 0.0003292 ***
## time1998              1.3996e+01  3.8717e+00   3.6149 0.0003271 ***
## time1999              1.8031e+01  5.0004e+00   3.6058 0.0003386 ***
## time2000              1.7665e+01  4.9003e+00   3.6050 0.0003396 ***
## time2001              6.2067e+00  1.6930e+00   3.6661 0.0002694 ***
## time2002              1.0201e+01  2.8079e+00   3.6330 0.0003056 ***
## time2003              6.1082e+00  1.6660e+00   3.6663 0.0002692 ***
## time2004              1.0142e+01  2.8061e+00   3.6141 0.0003281 ***
## time2005              1.0390e+01  2.8674e+00   3.6234 0.0003168 ***
## time2006              8.4215e+00  2.3299e+00   3.6145 0.0003276 ***
## time2007              6.5795e+00  1.8156e+00   3.6240 0.0003161 ***
## time2008              3.1909e+00  8.7636e-01   3.6411 0.0002963 ***
## time2009             -9.3874e+00  2.6299e+00  -3.5694 0.0003881 ***
## time2010              9.7734e+00  2.6877e+00   3.6363 0.0003017 ***
## time2011              9.6778e+00  2.6934e+00   3.5931 0.0003551 ***
## time2012              5.4548e+00  1.4976e+00   3.6424 0.0002948 ***
## time2013              7.0208e+00  1.9553e+00   3.5906 0.0003585 ***
## time2014              8.5009e+00  2.3714e+00   3.5847 0.0003664 ***
## time2015              2.0175e+00  5.4385e-01   3.7097 0.0002279 ***
## time2016              3.0190e+00  8.2159e-01   3.6746 0.0002608 ***
## time2017              8.8683e+00  2.4483e+00   3.6222 0.0003183 ***
## time2018              6.9917e+00  1.9326e+00   3.6178 0.0003236 ***
## iis125                3.4714e-01  8.7501e-02   3.9672 8.202e-05 ***
## iis130                3.9520e-01  8.7823e-02   4.5000 8.245e-06 ***
## iis140                4.0009e-01  8.7534e-02   4.5707 5.969e-06 ***
## iis147                2.8770e-01  8.7477e-02   3.2889 0.0010681 ** 
## iis170               -4.0365e-01  8.8621e-02  -4.5548 6.420e-06 ***
## iis171                4.1734e-01  8.9477e-02   4.6642 3.867e-06 ***
## iis194                3.0079e-01  8.7495e-02   3.4378 0.0006294 ***
## iis376               -2.3867e-01  8.8827e-02  -2.6869 0.0074224 ** 
## iis377               -4.4835e-01  8.9073e-02  -5.0335 6.474e-07 ***
## iis378               -2.2933e-01  8.9996e-02  -2.5483 0.0110879 *  
## iis379               -4.8295e-01  8.9144e-02  -5.4176 8.934e-08 ***
## iis380               -1.0717e+00  8.9863e-02 -11.9259 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis382                3.1383e-01  8.8846e-02   3.5323 0.0004455 ***
## iis383                6.0198e-01  8.9143e-02   6.7530 3.589e-11 ***
## iis384                1.0807e+00  9.0160e-02  11.9869 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis386                2.1212e-01  8.8769e-02   2.3896 0.0171940 *  
## iis391                2.1114e-01  8.8790e-02   2.3780 0.0177372 *  
## iis471               -2.8008e-01  8.7967e-02  -3.1839 0.0015328 ** 
## iis485               -3.5655e-01  8.7522e-02  -4.0738 5.283e-05 ***
## iis517                2.4292e-01  8.7433e-02   2.7784 0.0056442 ** 
## iis533                3.5395e-01  8.7698e-02   4.0361 6.181e-05 ***
## iis534               -2.7607e-01  8.7951e-02  -3.1390 0.0017835 ** 
## fesisFinland.2005    -6.6285e-02  3.1952e-02  -2.0746 0.0384772 *  
## fesisFrance.1992     -3.9240e-01  1.0522e-01  -3.7293 0.0002113 ***
## fesisFrance.1994      2.5009e-01  6.2900e-02   3.9760 7.912e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -4.4950e-01  6.4987e-02  -6.9169 1.248e-11 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017  4.8923e-01  7.1810e-02   6.8129 2.445e-11 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.1654e-01  7.8390e-02  -4.0381 6.130e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996  4.7434e-01  7.8570e-02   6.0372 2.834e-09 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -2.9949e-01  6.3394e-02  -4.7243 2.914e-06 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018   -2.2374e-01  4.6281e-02  -4.8343 1.722e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df p-value   
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    6.4446  1 0.01113 * 
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.2725  1 0.00135 **
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.08368
## R-squared          0.63606
## Log-lik.(n=651)  732.73948

p = 0.01

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:33:49 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                  -1.2441e-01  2.9862e-02  -4.1660 3.570e-05 ***
## d.lgdp_wb            -4.8189e+03  1.4635e+03  -3.2928 0.0010520 ** 
## d.lpop               -6.7291e+00  1.8906e+00  -3.5592 0.0004023 ***
## d.lgdp_wb_sq          8.0576e+01  2.4450e+01   3.2955 0.0010421 ** 
## idAustria            -1.3266e-02  2.3226e-02  -0.5712 0.5681004    
## idBelgium            -2.8286e-02  2.3237e-02  -1.2173 0.2239866    
## idCanada             -1.9122e-02  2.3234e-02  -0.8230 0.4108240    
## idDenmark            -8.0581e-02  2.3684e-02  -3.4023 0.0007140 ***
## idFinland            -1.9593e-02  2.3642e-02  -0.8287 0.4075887    
## idFrance             -3.1428e-02  2.3438e-02  -1.3409 0.1804776    
## idGermany            -2.8976e-02  2.3245e-02  -1.2466 0.2130601    
## idGreece             -2.9486e-02  2.3240e-02  -1.2688 0.2050308    
## idIreland            -1.4528e-02  2.3231e-02  -0.6254 0.5319776    
## idItaly              -2.0206e-02  2.3233e-02  -0.8697 0.3848106    
## idJapan              -5.8189e-04  2.3225e-02  -0.0251 0.9800202    
## idLuxembourg         -2.3080e-02  5.6427e-02  -0.4090 0.6826718    
## idNetherlands        -7.0675e-03  2.3228e-02  -0.3043 0.7610331    
## idNewZealand         -8.8910e-03  2.3427e-02  -0.3795 0.7044471    
## idPortugal           -1.2500e-03  2.4116e-02  -0.0518 0.9586780    
## idSpain              -2.1553e-02  2.3236e-02  -0.9276 0.3540088    
## idSweden             -2.4250e-02  2.3430e-02  -1.0350 0.3010964    
## idSwitzerland         6.1508e-03  2.3250e-02   0.2646 0.7914489    
## idUnitedKingdom      -5.0211e-02  2.3267e-02  -2.1580 0.0313355 *  
## idUnitedStates       -1.5922e-02  2.3231e-02  -0.6854 0.4933772    
## time1991             -8.0164e+00  2.5168e+00  -3.1852 0.0015240 ** 
## time1992              3.5991e+00  1.0673e+00   3.3723 0.0007950 ***
## time1993              1.0215e+01  3.1115e+00   3.2830 0.0010884 ** 
## time1994              1.6888e+01  5.1360e+00   3.2882 0.0010691 ** 
## time1995              1.0097e+01  3.0583e+00   3.3016 0.0010200 ** 
## time1996              6.0923e+00  1.8298e+00   3.3294 0.0009253 ***
## time1997              1.5476e+01  4.7205e+00   3.2785 0.0011059 ** 
## time1998              1.3897e+01  4.2302e+00   3.2851 0.0010806 ** 
## time1999              1.7896e+01  5.4636e+00   3.2756 0.0011170 ** 
## time2000              1.7550e+01  5.3541e+00   3.2778 0.0011083 ** 
## time2001              6.1673e+00  1.8498e+00   3.3340 0.0009102 ***
## time2002              1.0133e+01  3.0679e+00   3.3028 0.0010160 ** 
## time2003              6.0669e+00  1.8203e+00   3.3328 0.0009142 ***
## time2004              1.0079e+01  3.0660e+00   3.2872 0.0010726 ** 
## time2005              1.0312e+01  3.1330e+00   3.2915 0.0010569 ** 
## time2006              8.3603e+00  2.5457e+00   3.2841 0.0010845 ** 
## time2007              6.5293e+00  1.9837e+00   3.2914 0.0010570 ** 
## time2008              3.1652e+00  9.5753e-01   3.3056 0.0010060 ** 
## time2009             -9.3092e+00  2.8735e+00  -3.2396 0.0012649 ** 
## time2010              9.6809e+00  2.9367e+00   3.2966 0.0010383 ** 
## time2011              9.6241e+00  2.9429e+00   3.2703 0.0011378 ** 
## time2012              5.4195e+00  1.6363e+00   3.3121 0.0009834 ***
## time2013              6.9884e+00  2.1364e+00   3.2710 0.0011347 ** 
## time2014              8.4415e+00  2.5910e+00   3.2580 0.0011874 ** 
## time2015              2.0026e+00  5.9423e-01   3.3701 0.0008010 ***
## time2016              2.9996e+00  8.9769e-01   3.3415 0.0008867 ***
## time2017              8.8043e+00  2.6751e+00   3.2912 0.0010578 ** 
## time2018              6.9426e+00  2.1116e+00   3.2879 0.0010703 ** 
## iis130                3.5933e-01  9.5500e-02   3.7626 0.0001851 ***
## iis140                3.7646e-01  9.5517e-02   3.9413 9.087e-05 ***
## iis170               -4.3557e-01  9.5383e-02  -4.5665 6.054e-06 ***
## iis171                3.7472e-01  9.6353e-02   3.8890 0.0001122 ***
## iis194                3.0738e-01  9.5416e-02   3.2215 0.0013462 ** 
## iis380               -1.1816e+00  9.9587e-02 -11.8646 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383                5.1513e-01  9.8560e-02   5.2266 2.409e-07 ***
## iis384                1.0022e+00  9.9517e-02  10.0711 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis441                4.2610e-01  9.5422e-02   4.4654 9.597e-06 ***
## iis533                3.4936e-01  9.5439e-02   3.6606 0.0002745 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -3.8218e-01  7.1865e-02  -5.3180 1.497e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998  4.4330e-01  5.5967e-02   7.9207 1.201e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2011 -1.7229e-01  5.5546e-02  -3.1018 0.0020167 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -3.7454e-01  8.1179e-02  -4.6137 4.866e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017  4.9306e-01  7.8464e-02   6.2839 6.467e-10 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018   -2.0031e-01  5.0308e-02  -3.9817 7.706e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    5.6721  1 0.0172373 *  
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 12.0374  1 0.0005214 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09144
## R-squared          0.55399
## Log-lik.(n=651)  667.53328

p = 0.001

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp_wb + d.lpop + d.lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 31 15:35:05 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                  -1.2203e-01  3.1791e-02  -3.8387 0.0001371 ***
## d.lgdp_wb            -4.9336e+03  1.5681e+03  -3.1463 0.0017368 ** 
## d.lpop               -7.4794e+00  2.0197e+00  -3.7031 0.0002330 ***
## d.lgdp_wb_sq          8.2492e+01  2.6197e+01   3.1489 0.0017221 ** 
## idAustria            -1.3249e-02  2.4889e-02  -0.5323 0.5947007    
## idBelgium            -2.8227e-02  2.4901e-02  -1.1336 0.2574330    
## idCanada             -1.9071e-02  2.4898e-02  -0.7660 0.4439956    
## idDenmark            -5.6716e-02  2.4949e-02  -2.2732 0.0233712 *  
## idFinland             1.2335e-02  3.1864e-02   0.3871 0.6988052    
## idFrance             -2.1450e-02  2.4902e-02  -0.8614 0.3893956    
## idGermany            -2.8900e-02  2.4909e-02  -1.1602 0.2464402    
## idGreece             -2.9420e-02  2.4904e-02  -1.1813 0.2379573    
## idIreland            -1.4485e-02  2.4895e-02  -0.5819 0.5608758    
## idItaly              -2.0158e-02  2.4897e-02  -0.8097 0.4184666    
## idJapan              -5.8277e-04  2.4888e-02  -0.0234 0.9813267    
## idLuxembourg         -1.9749e-02  6.0474e-02  -0.3266 0.7441079    
## idNetherlands        -7.0377e-03  2.4891e-02  -0.2827 0.7774772    
## idNewZealand          4.8440e-03  2.4889e-02   0.1946 0.8457518    
## idPortugal           -2.7044e-02  2.4898e-02  -1.0862 0.2778372    
## idSpain              -2.1497e-02  2.4900e-02  -0.8633 0.3882993    
## idSweden             -1.2948e-02  2.4892e-02  -0.5202 0.6031341    
## idSwitzerland         6.0650e-03  2.4915e-02   0.2434 0.8077583    
## idUnitedKingdom      -5.0099e-02  2.4933e-02  -2.0094 0.0449546 *  
## idUnitedStates       -1.5880e-02  2.4895e-02  -0.6379 0.5237997    
## time1991             -8.2074e+00  2.6967e+00  -3.0435 0.0024423 ** 
## time1992              3.6885e+00  1.1435e+00   3.2256 0.0013270 ** 
## time1993              1.0464e+01  3.3338e+00   3.1388 0.0017813 ** 
## time1994              1.7296e+01  5.5030e+00   3.1431 0.0017558 ** 
## time1995              1.0342e+01  3.2769e+00   3.1562 0.0016799 ** 
## time1996              6.2749e+00  1.9606e+00   3.2005 0.0014455 ** 
## time1997              1.5871e+01  5.0578e+00   3.1380 0.0017863 ** 
## time1998              1.4247e+01  4.5325e+00   3.1432 0.0017549 ** 
## time1999              1.8330e+01  5.8540e+00   3.1312 0.0018272 ** 
## time2000              1.7976e+01  5.7367e+00   3.1335 0.0018134 ** 
## time2001              6.3174e+00  1.9820e+00   3.1875 0.0015114 ** 
## time2002              1.0378e+01  3.2872e+00   3.1572 0.0016745 ** 
## time2003              6.2156e+00  1.9504e+00   3.1868 0.0015147 ** 
## time2004              1.0325e+01  3.2851e+00   3.1431 0.0017558 ** 
## time2005              1.0566e+01  3.3569e+00   3.1475 0.0017298 ** 
## time2006              8.5871e+00  2.7276e+00   3.1483 0.0017256 ** 
## time2007              6.6943e+00  2.1254e+00   3.1496 0.0017177 ** 
## time2008              3.2508e+00  1.0259e+00   3.1687 0.0016108 ** 
## time2009             -9.5232e+00  3.0789e+00  -3.0931 0.0020748 ** 
## time2010              9.9218e+00  3.1465e+00   3.1533 0.0016964 ** 
## time2011              9.8561e+00  3.1532e+00   3.1258 0.0018607 ** 
## time2012              5.5502e+00  1.7532e+00   3.1658 0.0016266 ** 
## time2013              7.1579e+00  2.2891e+00   3.1270 0.0018532 ** 
## time2014              8.6464e+00  2.7762e+00   3.1145 0.0019321 ** 
## time2015              2.0549e+00  6.3666e-01   3.2276 0.0013176 ** 
## time2016              3.0785e+00  9.6180e-01   3.2007 0.0014446 ** 
## time2017              9.0226e+00  2.8662e+00   3.1479 0.0017274 ** 
## time2018              7.1088e+00  2.2625e+00   3.1420 0.0017621 ** 
## iis171                3.8455e-01  1.0457e-01   3.6774 0.0002572 ***
## iis380               -1.1432e+00  1.0504e-01 -10.8839 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383                5.6705e-01  1.0433e-01   5.4349 8.037e-08 ***
## iis384                1.0535e+00  1.0545e-01   9.9909 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisFinland.2005    -4.6801e-01  1.0405e-01  -4.4980 8.267e-06 ***
## fesisFinland.2006     4.0765e-01  1.0376e-01   3.9286 9.556e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -3.9586e-01  7.6974e-02  -5.1428 3.689e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998  4.0438e-01  5.7342e-02   7.0522 4.956e-12 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -4.9686e-01  7.6088e-02  -6.5301 1.421e-10 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017  5.0085e-01  8.4058e-02   5.9584 4.387e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    8.2164  1  0.004151 ** 
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.9643  1 6.455e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09798
## R-squared          0.48255
## Log-lik.(n=651)  619.50659

Testing CFESIS (levels)

Coefficient Fixed Effect Step Indicator Saturation (breaks in the coefficient estimate on the controls for each individual country)

Question: My current interpretation of these steps (denoted in the graph below by the vertical green bars) is potentially a change in emission intensity of GDP (decoupling) and emission intensity of population/people? Unsure if this is accurate. Curious for a discussion on this.

p = 0.001

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Wed Nov  2 19:50:00 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                          coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                           -1.0537e+00  5.3192e-01  -1.9810 0.0480509 *  
## lpop                               9.2668e-02  2.1532e-01   0.4304 0.6670773    
## lgdp_wb_sq                         2.2392e-02  1.0512e-02   2.1302 0.0335610 *  
## idAustria                         -2.1182e+00  1.3483e-01 -15.7104 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium                         -1.7547e+00  9.3707e-02 -18.7254 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                          -4.6667e-01  9.4222e-02  -4.9528 9.526e-07 ***
## idDenmark                         -1.2955e+00  2.1020e-01  -6.1633 1.309e-09 ***
## idFinland                         -1.5786e+00  2.0485e-01  -7.7058 5.424e-14 ***
## idFrance                          -1.5199e+00  2.0003e-01  -7.5980 1.163e-13 ***
## idGermany                          3.8505e-01  2.3617e-01   1.6304 0.1035355    
## idGreece                          -1.1517e+00  8.8723e-02 -12.9811 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland                         -2.1295e+00  2.4750e-01  -8.6038 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                           -4.4141e-01  1.9330e-01  -2.2835 0.0227499 *  
## idJapan                            4.5193e-01  3.1247e-01   1.4463 0.1486136    
## idLuxembourg                      -3.8035e+00  6.6914e-01  -5.6842 2.054e-08 ***
## idNetherlands                     -9.5736e-01  4.1530e-02 -23.0525 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand                      -3.2157e+00  2.5644e-01 -12.5398 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal                        -1.8614e+00  9.3602e-02 -19.8863 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                           -7.6884e-01  1.6526e-01  -4.6522 4.045e-06 ***
## idSweden                          -2.5938e+00  1.2076e-01 -21.4782 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland                     -3.9629e+00  1.8183e-01 -21.7937 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom                   -1.7963e-02  1.9374e-01  -0.0927 0.9261583    
## idUnitedStates                     1.7167e+00  4.2113e-01   4.0764 5.191e-05 ***
## time1990                           2.2401e+01  8.1015e+00   2.7651 0.0058667 ** 
## time1991                           2.2464e+01  8.1022e+00   2.7726 0.0057343 ** 
## time1992                           2.2459e+01  8.1025e+00   2.7719 0.0057470 ** 
## time1993                           2.2417e+01  8.1030e+00   2.7665 0.0058414 ** 
## time1994                           2.2429e+01  8.1025e+00   2.7682 0.0058112 ** 
## time1995                           2.2464e+01  8.1016e+00   2.7727 0.0057317 ** 
## time1996                           2.2498e+01  8.1012e+00   2.7771 0.0056558 ** 
## time1997                           2.2491e+01  8.0998e+00   2.7767 0.0056626 ** 
## time1998                           2.2520e+01  8.0988e+00   2.7807 0.0055944 ** 
## time1999                           2.2519e+01  8.0977e+00   2.7809 0.0055908 ** 
## time2000                           2.2530e+01  8.0962e+00   2.7828 0.0055591 ** 
## time2001                           2.2565e+01  8.0960e+00   2.7872 0.0054850 ** 
## time2002                           2.2589e+01  8.0955e+00   2.7903 0.0054344 ** 
## time2003                           2.2625e+01  8.0956e+00   2.7947 0.0053603 ** 
## time2004                           2.2618e+01  8.0950e+00   2.7941 0.0053709 ** 
## time2005                           2.2614e+01  8.0948e+00   2.7936 0.0053791 ** 
## time2006                           2.2619e+01  8.0942e+00   2.7944 0.0053653 ** 
## time2007                           2.2591e+01  8.0937e+00   2.7912 0.0054193 ** 
## time2008                           2.2528e+01  8.0944e+00   2.7831 0.0055540 ** 
## time2009                           2.2475e+01  8.0972e+00   2.7756 0.0056813 ** 
## time2010                           2.2497e+01  8.0967e+00   2.7786 0.0056311 ** 
## time2011                           2.2414e+01  8.0970e+00   2.7682 0.0058116 ** 
## time2012                           2.2424e+01  8.0975e+00   2.7692 0.0057933 ** 
## time2013                           2.2375e+01  8.0970e+00   2.7634 0.0058965 ** 
## time2014                           2.2290e+01  8.0968e+00   2.7530 0.0060849 ** 
## time2015                           2.2273e+01  8.0963e+00   2.7510 0.0061216 ** 
## time2016                           2.2259e+01  8.0956e+00   2.7495 0.0061490 ** 
## time2017                           2.2273e+01  8.0951e+00   2.7514 0.0061145 ** 
## time2018                           2.2208e+01  8.0947e+00   2.7435 0.0062599 ** 
## time2019                           2.2112e+01  8.0945e+00   2.7318 0.0064849 ** 
## time2020                           2.2010e+01  8.0979e+00   2.7181 0.0067567 ** 
## time2021                           2.2046e+01  8.0956e+00   2.7233 0.0066527 ** 
## iis415                            -1.9696e+00  1.1969e-01 -16.4559 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                            -1.8595e+00  1.1912e-01 -15.6104 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                            -1.6070e+00  1.1863e-01 -13.5464 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                            -1.0670e+00  1.1842e-01  -9.0103 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2015           -4.9789e-01  5.0158e-02  -9.9263 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995              -7.8042e-01  9.4556e-02  -8.2535 9.828e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998               8.9835e-01  1.1642e-01   7.7164 5.029e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013              -4.5478e-01  7.6284e-02  -5.9618 4.264e-09 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016              -7.8953e-01  8.1331e-02  -9.7076 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2008                2.6331e-01  4.4521e-02   5.9142 5.606e-09 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997               5.0562e-01  5.3954e-02   9.3713 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp_wb.cfesisDenmark.2015         1.0504e-02  1.7283e-03   6.0775 2.173e-09 ***
## lgdp_wb.cfesisFrance.2017         -1.4092e-02  2.5704e-03  -5.4824 6.191e-08 ***
## lgdp_wb.cfesisNewZealand.1997     -2.2363e-02  5.0169e-03  -4.4575 9.900e-06 ***
## lpop.cfesisFrance.2000            -2.3026e-02  2.8078e-03  -8.2005 1.463e-15 ***
## lpop.cfesisFrance.2012            -2.0441e-02  3.4373e-03  -5.9469 4.645e-09 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq.cfesisItaly.1997       -2.9428e-04  7.5266e-05  -3.9099 0.0001029 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq.cfesisSwitzerland.2011  7.3544e-04  6.5994e-05  11.1440 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   164.843  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  43.603  1 4.022e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10994
## R-squared          0.99670
## Log-lik.(n=672)  566.61640

p = 0.01

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp_wb + lpop + lgdp_wb_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Wed Nov  2 19:47:07 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                          coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp_wb                           -2.1899e+00  6.2863e-01  -3.4836 0.0005311 ***
## lpop                               1.9440e-01  1.9713e-01   0.9862 0.3244451    
## lgdp_wb_sq                         4.3866e-02  1.2347e-02   3.5528 0.0004114 ***
## idAustria                         -2.0106e+00  1.2532e-01 -16.0436 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium                         -1.4960e+00  9.0336e-02 -16.5608 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                          -5.4113e-01  8.7135e-02  -6.2103 9.944e-10 ***
## idDenmark                         -1.1752e+00  1.9383e-01  -6.0630 2.377e-09 ***
## idFinland                         -1.4290e+00  1.8940e-01  -7.5449 1.708e-13 ***
## idFrance                          -1.6994e+00  1.8631e-01  -9.1215 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idGermany                          1.4976e-01  2.2181e-01   0.6752 0.4998112    
## idGreece                          -1.0748e+00  8.5035e-02 -12.6394 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland                         -1.9625e+00  2.2803e-01  -8.6064 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                           -5.9910e-01  1.7901e-01  -3.3468 0.0008691 ***
## idJapan                            1.3851e-01  2.9372e-01   0.4716 0.6373987    
## idLuxembourg                      -3.5125e+00  6.1181e-01  -5.7411 1.502e-08 ***
## idNetherlands                     -9.9330e-01  3.9628e-02 -25.0656 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand                      -3.0523e+00  2.3543e-01 -12.9644 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal                        -1.7809e+00  8.9427e-02 -19.9150 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                           -8.6152e-01  1.5142e-01  -5.6896 2.001e-08 ***
## idSweden                          -2.4995e+00  1.1208e-01 -22.3005 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland                     -3.8546e+00  1.6692e-01 -23.0932 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom                   -1.7456e-01  1.8046e-01  -0.9673 0.3337995    
## idUnitedStates                     1.2548e+00  4.0338e-01   3.1108 0.0019553 ** 
## time1990                           3.5706e+01  8.9547e+00   3.9874 7.513e-05 ***
## time1991                           3.5768e+01  8.9551e+00   3.9941 7.308e-05 ***
## time1992                           3.5762e+01  8.9552e+00   3.9934 7.330e-05 ***
## time1993                           3.5719e+01  8.9556e+00   3.9885 7.480e-05 ***
## time1994                           3.5731e+01  8.9549e+00   3.9901 7.431e-05 ***
## time1995                           3.5758e+01  8.9531e+00   3.9939 7.314e-05 ***
## time1996                           3.5781e+01  8.9524e+00   3.9968 7.229e-05 ***
## time1997                           3.5794e+01  8.9519e+00   3.9984 7.180e-05 ***
## time1998                           3.5823e+01  8.9509e+00   4.0022 7.070e-05 ***
## time1999                           3.5821e+01  8.9496e+00   4.0025 7.060e-05 ***
## time2000                           3.5829e+01  8.9479e+00   4.0042 7.012e-05 ***
## time2001                           3.5871e+01  8.9472e+00   4.0091 6.870e-05 ***
## time2002                           3.5909e+01  8.9487e+00   4.0128 6.768e-05 ***
## time2003                           3.5942e+01  8.9486e+00   4.0165 6.666e-05 ***
## time2004                           3.5927e+01  8.9478e+00   4.0152 6.702e-05 ***
## time2005                           3.5917e+01  8.9473e+00   4.0143 6.725e-05 ***
## time2006                           3.5916e+01  8.9455e+00   4.0150 6.705e-05 ***
## time2007                           3.5899e+01  8.9448e+00   4.0134 6.750e-05 ***
## time2008                           3.5839e+01  8.9456e+00   4.0063 6.951e-05 ***
## time2009                           3.5783e+01  8.9482e+00   3.9990 7.164e-05 ***
## time2010                           3.5805e+01  8.9475e+00   4.0017 7.085e-05 ***
## time2011                           3.5726e+01  8.9475e+00   3.9929 7.345e-05 ***
## time2012                           3.5739e+01  8.9477e+00   3.9942 7.305e-05 ***
## time2013                           3.5675e+01  8.9477e+00   3.9871 7.523e-05 ***
## time2014                           3.5583e+01  8.9474e+00   3.9769 7.843e-05 ***
## time2015                           3.5545e+01  8.9465e+00   3.9730 7.969e-05 ***
## time2016                           3.5546e+01  8.9457e+00   3.9735 7.953e-05 ***
## time2017                           3.5559e+01  8.9449e+00   3.9754 7.892e-05 ***
## time2018                           3.5494e+01  8.9442e+00   3.9684 8.121e-05 ***
## time2019                           3.5396e+01  8.9438e+00   3.9576 8.488e-05 ***
## time2020                           3.5297e+01  8.9471e+00   3.9451 8.930e-05 ***
## time2021                           3.5332e+01  8.9447e+00   3.9500 8.753e-05 ***
## iis181                             3.2288e-01  1.0834e-01   2.9803 0.0029975 ** 
## iis414                            -6.6287e-01  1.1274e-01  -5.8796 6.863e-09 ***
## iis415                            -1.7730e+00  1.1168e-01 -15.8762 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                            -1.6285e+00  1.1190e-01 -14.5530 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                            -1.3650e+00  1.1186e-01 -12.2025 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                            -8.6833e-01  1.1127e-01  -7.8039 2.717e-14 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2002            -1.8465e-01  5.0769e-02  -3.6371 0.0002997 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001                 -2.7124e-01  3.8641e-02  -7.0196 6.096e-12 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017                 -3.8745e-01  6.5270e-02  -5.9361 4.965e-09 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016           -5.4430e-01  4.8456e-02 -11.2329 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995               1.2663e+03  1.8072e+02   7.0067 6.641e-12 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016              -5.7936e-01  9.1021e-02  -6.3652 3.903e-10 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014              2.4837e-01  4.2386e-02   5.8598 7.683e-09 ***
## fesisAustralia.2008                2.2350e-01  4.2091e-02   5.3099 1.552e-07 ***
## lgdp_wb.cfesisDenmark.2015         1.0396e-02  1.5800e-03   6.5800 1.034e-10 ***
## lgdp_wb.cfesisNewZealand.1995     -9.5366e+01  1.3610e+01  -7.0069 6.630e-12 ***
## lgdp_wb.cfesisUnitedStates.1997    9.6207e-02  2.4290e-02   3.9607 8.380e-05 ***
## lpop.cfesisFrance.2000            -2.1773e-02  2.6402e-03  -8.2469 1.048e-15 ***
## lpop.cfesisFrance.2012            -1.9804e-02  3.1375e-03  -6.3123 5.383e-10 ***
## lpop.cfesisUnitedStates.1997      -1.2720e-01  3.9097e-02  -3.2534 0.0012048 ** 
## lgdp_wb_sq.cfesisItaly.1997       -3.6914e-04  6.9661e-05  -5.2992 1.642e-07 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq.cfesisNewZealand.1995   1.7932e+00  2.5602e-01   7.0041 6.754e-12 ***
## lgdp_wb_sq.cfesisSwitzerland.2011  7.3514e-04  6.0397e-05  12.1717 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   127.349  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  34.905  1 3.462e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10026
## R-squared          0.99728
## Log-lik.(n=672)  631.05244